The Community Coordinated Modeling Center:

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The Community Coordinated Modeling Center A
Bridge Between Space Weather Research and
Operations
Michael Hesse
http//ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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NASA
NSF
A US multi-agency partnership to enable,
support, and perform the research and development
for next generation space science and space
weather models
AFRL
AF/XOW - AFWA
NOAA/SEC
AF SMC/CI
ONR
AFOSR
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CCMC Goals
CCMC
Support Model Transition to Operations
Facilitate Community Research
DoD and NOAA Space Weather needs
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CCMC Activities

• Evaluate scientific research models to address
  National Space Weather needs
• Make modern space science models available to the
  research community
• Support the development of advanced models
• Focus on models with space weather operations
  benefits
• Develop prototype real-time systems
• Support space weather education
• Transfer evaluated models to operational National
  Space Weather Agencies

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Decision Flow
US National Space Weather Program Council
US Committee for Space Weather
Research Community
recommendations, needs
needs
Operations Community
requirements
directs
informs
Center
Science and Operations Advisory Committees
at GSFC
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CCMC Steering Committee

• Members
• NASA Headquarters Dr. Chuck Holmes (Co-Chair)
• NSF Dr. Paul Bellaire (Co-Chair)
• AF/XOW Maj. Mark Adair
• AFOSR Maj. David Byers
• AFRL Dr. Nick Arge
• NASA/GSFC Dr. Michael Hesse
• NASA Headquarters Dr. Madhulika Guhathakurta
• NOAA/SEC Dr. Terry Onsager
• NSF Dr. Bob Robinson
• ONR Dr. Bob McCoy
• SMC/CI Mr. Kevin Scro (Facilitator)
• Technical Advisors
• AFIT Maj. Chris Smithro
• AFSPC Mr. Kelly Hand

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The CCMC Staff
Staff member Function Dr. Michael
Hesse Director Dr. Masha Kuznetsova Models,
Deputy Director Dr. Joel Allred Postdoctoral
fellow Mr. Sarabjit Bakshi Sysadmin. Mr.
David Berrios Visualization Ms. Anna
Chulaki ROR system, metrics studies Ms. Mary
Goldfarb WWW management Dr. Peter
MacNeice Models, model coupling, frameworks Mr.
Marlo Maddox Data Formats, visualization Mr.
Kiran Patel Sysadmin., comp. resources Dr.
Lutz Rastaetter Models, VV, visualization,
frameworks Dr. Aleksandre Taktakishvili
Postdoctoral fellow Associate Dr. Mei-Ching
Fok RC and rad. belt models
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CCMC Facility
200 node Beowulf system, sponsored by AF/XOW,
NSF, AFOSR, tech refresh in progress
Located at NASA GSFC
S. Bakshi, K. Patel
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Models Overview
PFSS
Exosph. SW
BATS-R-US
Helio. Tomog.
Open- GGCM
Weimer2K
Fok RC
SAMI2
CTIP
WSA
MAS
ENLIL
SWMF

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Solar Models
Density, flows

• MAS (Linker et al SAIC) Global solar magnetic
  field and plasma structure

• Potential Field Source Surface (Luhmann, UCB) -
  Global solar magnetic field structure

Operational significance Now Solar wind,
connection to active regions (solar energetic
particles) Future Solar eruptions, CMEs
P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter
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Solar/Heliospheric Models
WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge) Corona
empirical/kinematic solar wind
Operational significance Solar wind forecasting
P. MacNeice
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Heliospheric Models

• ENLIL (Odstrcil NOAA) Complete,
  physics-based, heliosphere ( 30rs 10AU)

• Heliospheric Tomography
• (Jackson,Hick UCSD)

Operational significance Now Solar wind
forecasts, connection to active regions (solar
energetic particles) Future Solar eruptions,
CMEs, higher fidelity forecasts
P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova, A.
Chulaki
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Forecasting Sun to Earth
Running in realtime P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter

• Photospheric
• Synoptic
• magnetograms

WSA potential field equatorial current sheet
model (1-21.5rs)
ENLIL - 3D MHD Heliosphere (21.5rs 1,2 or 10AU)
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Magnetospheric Models

• Global Magnetohydrodynamic Models (2 Models,
  UMichigan and UNH) plasmas and electromagnetic
  fields

equatorial plane magnetopause and
geosynchronous orbit
Operational significance S/C charging, S/C
orientation, information transfer
solar-wind/ionosphere
L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova
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Inner Magnetospheric Models

• Ring Current and Radiation Belt Models (3 Models,
  GSFC and UMichigan) high energy particle fluxes
  (keV MeV)

150keV protons
Operational significance S/C charging, Single
event upsets Radiation up to MeV energies
L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova
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Ionospheric Models
NmF2
ne
Operational significance Now Ionospheric
TEC Ground magnetic perturbations Polar cap
absorption and radiation Future Ionospheric
Scintillations
M. Kuznetsova, L. Rastaetter
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Models Future

• Sun, Heliosphere, Magnetosphere and Ionosphere
• SWMF (UMichigan) includes 9 component models
  covering solar corona to upper atmosphere.
• Sun
• Updated MAS step toward eruption modeling
• Ionosphere
• GAIM (USU) installation underway
• CCMC will support GAIM VV
• Eccles HF absorption model
• Installation planned
• NASA/LWS supported

Vertical TEC distributions in the ionosphere
forecast model (IFM, GAIM-step 0 and step 1) for
day 338 in 1998. Fig. 6 of Schunk, RW et al.,
Radio Sci., 39, RS1S02, 2004.
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Transition to Ops VV and Metrics
Decision makers and operational agencies need
model evaluations - Science-based validation
Compare model output to measurements for select
events, detailed analysis - Metrics studies
Repeatable comparison between model output and
measurements, one number Need to be blind
studies, performed by independent agent
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VV Simulate Polar Cap Size
Boundary between open and closed field lines (FL)
open FL
open FL
closed FL
VIS Earth Camera 15 July 2000 2020 UT
Polar cap boundary observed by POLAR
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VV Simulate Polar Cap Size
Rastaetter et al., 2005
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Metrics Ground Magnetic Perturbations
Results Averaged Over 10 Stations
Day 2
FHB Station
(THL SVS UPN GDH STF GHB FHB NAQ NRD SLO)
hour
Day 1
FHB Station
Storm day
Storm day
hour
...establish absolute measure of model
performance
ground magnetic measurements magnetic
perturbations from model (10 mho) magnetic
perturbations from model (5 mho)
K. Keller, M. Kuznetsova, M. Hesse
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VV Solar Wind Prediction
Density
Velocity
Time (Days)
Time (Days)
Period 2
Period 1
Black ACE Measurements Red Model
Orange Mean
Heliospheric Tomography
K. Keller, P. MacNeice
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VV Radiation Belt

• UPOS geo MeV electron forecasting model
• VV activity requested by AFWA
• Installation underway
• VV activities imminent

A. Chulaki
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VV Executing Models in Real Time

                                                
             

ACE data
Executing 24/7 on CCMC computing engines
L. Rastaetter
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Model Handoff Activities

• Weimer 2K ionospheric currents and ground
  magnetic perturbations
• Two versions of BATS-R-US magnetospheric
  magnetic field and thermal plasma
• Fok Ring Current Model energetic particles
• Results of metrics study
• IDL-based visualization software
• Scripts to setup test runs and real-time
  simulations.
• Installation kit and step by step instructions
• CCMC staff installed of real-time version of
  BATS-R-US and Ring Current Model at SMC RPC.

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Science Support

• Through www-accessible run results
• Through runs on request, available for
• - 4 magnetospheric models
• (OPEN-GGCM, BATSRUS, Fok-RC,
• Fok-RB)
• - 3 ionospheric models
• (Weimer, SAMI-2, CTIP)
• - 4 heliospheric models
• (IPS, IASB exospheric,ENLIL, WSA)
• - 2 solar models
• (MAS, Luhmann)
• No cost to user

http//ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
L. Rastaetter, A. Chulaki
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Key Usage Statistics

• Total executed model runs
• Over 560 runs executed so far
• Monthly website stats 05
• 17,900 website hits/month
• 600 unique visitors/month
• 1350 visualization requests/month
• International resource

A. Chulaki
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Data Standardization
Standardized Environment

• Standard format for storage, coupling,
  visualization
• Ensures compatibility between models for coupling
• Resolves multiple-interface challenge
• Ground work for which standard, reusable
  interfaces and tools can be developed

n m interfaces required
M. Maddox
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Data Standardization Benefits

• Speed and efficiency of direct data access
• - Simple data access library
• Same interface regardless of model
• Platform independent
• Facilitates data code reuse
• Permits rapid analysis of data sets from complex
  models
• Available to interested customers

Required vx, Bx, By in Range of 10RE Reduced
plot times from 15min to lt5sec
M. Maddox
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Advanced Visualization OpenDx
D. Berrios
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Future Activities Research Support

• Support the generation of advanced space science
  models
• Address Space Weather-relevant processes
• Collaborate with related activities (CISM, CSEM,
  ILWS)
• Expand strong service to (international) research
  community
• Execute runs-on-request
• Provide ready access to model output with
  enhanced tools
• Includes mission support, e.g., STEREO
• Includes campaign support, e.g., IHY

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Future Activities Operations Support

• Provide tool by which science progress at NASA,
  NSF feeds into Space Weather operations
• Focus on science models with operational benefits
• Operator input to identify model needs
• Address immediate payoffs as well as strategic
  value models (e.g., solar forecasting)
• Provide expanded, independent model evaluations
• Obtain metrics, VV procedures from operators
• Support GAIM VV
• Perform priority evaluations for operations
• Provide rapid response service in emergencies
• Other opportunities for closer collaborations/tail
  ored support
• Education Coordination initiated with AFIT,
  USAFA
• Interacting with AFWA (LtCol. Cade, Maj. Nobis)
• Implementation Installation design and support
  possible
• Tool development following operator needs