The Atmospheric Pollution and the Economic Development in China

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The Atmospheric Pollution and the Economic
Development in China
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Outline

1. Introduction and overview of the current state of
   the atmospheric pollution in the Asia-Pacific
   region
2. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution in China
3. Carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution in China
4. Concluding remarks

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Overview

• Atmospheric pollution increased significantly in
  the last three decades due to
• Rapid economic growth
• More widespread use of motor vehicles

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In the Asia-Pacific region...

• In 1992, the region accounted for 21 of the
  worlds commercial energy consumption (shown in
  Fig 1)
• Energy consumption grew by 6.2 while the global
  energy consumption fell by 1
• 80 of the energy generated by fossil fuels, 40
  of which was coal

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Fig 1 Share of world energy demand (1992)
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Fig 2 Relative Severity of Air Pollution in
Asian Sub-regions
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In the Asia-Pacific region... Cond

• Sulfur oxide emission increased by 80
  (1970-1986)
• Sulfur dioxide emission was 50 higher than
  either Africa or Latin America
• Nitrogen oxide emission increased by 70
  (1970-1986)
• Carbon dioxide grew 60 faster than elsewhere

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Air quality in Asias mega-cities
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In the Asia-Pacific region... Cond

• Energy demand will double every 12 years (the
  world average 28 years)
• Demand for coal will remain high (6.5 annual
  increase) thanks to
• The abundance of coal
• Its easy recoverability
• SO2 emission triple in the next 12 years

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The result

• A significant increase of national and
  trans-boundary acid deposition
• Aggravating urban air pollution
• Irreversible ecosystem damage with far-reaching
  implications
• In a word, the result is pretty darn BAD!!!

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Sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution

• Generated as a result of the burning of coal and
  petroleum
• When released into the air, it reacts with
  atmospheric water and oxygen to produce sulfuric
  acid major component of acid rain

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The acid rain

• Has substantially harmful effects on forests,
  fresh water and soils
• Kills off insect and aquatic life forms
• Causes chemical weathering to statues and
  buildings

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Fig 4 SO2 Emission Level from 2000 to 2005
(10,000 tons)
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SO2 in China

• In 2005, over 50 of SO2 emitted from the
  Production and Distribution of Electric Power
  and Heat Power Industry (11.67 million tonnes)
• In which 11.12 million tonnes were the result of
  Firepower Electricity generation

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Fig 5 Total Electricity and Firepower
Electricity (1 Billion kwh)
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Fig 6 Percentage of Firepower Electricity in
Total Electricity Output
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A couple of examples

• June 8, 2004, the SO2 pollution in Guiyang
  resulted in a black dust storm.
• Nov. 12, 2004, an SO2 accident in Yichang
  hospitalized 108 persons.

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Any optimism here?......Yes!

• A study of national income and SO2 emissions in
  12 Western European countries in 2006
• Used 132 years of data
• Came up with an Environmental Kuznets Curve
  (EKC)

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Fig 7 Kuznets Curve
Income Inequality or Environmental Quality
Income per capita
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In that study
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Fig 9 Predicted Sulfur Emissions Per Capita and
Income Per Capita

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Fig 10 Pollution-Income Relationship
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Compare with the current Chinese situation

• The 2006 income per capita in China is 1,500
• Compared to the Western Europe turning points of
  11,900 with regulations, and 12,200 without
  regulations

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Fig 11 Per capita income and industrial SO2
emission (1995-2004)
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Fig 12 China-Europe Comparison
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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Pollution

• Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is mainly caused
  by
• Fossil fuel combustion
• Deforestation
• A vicious domino effect
• SO2 emission ? Acid rain ?Deforestation ?High
  atmospheric CO2 concentration?Greenhouse Effect
  Global Warming

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Fig 13 Historical Global Fossil Carbon Emissions
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Fig 14 Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Country (1000
tonnnes)
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In 2002 UN statistics

• U.S. was the largest CO2 emitter (24.3)
• European Union (15.3)
• China (14.5)
• India, Japan and South Korea ranked No.4, 5, and
  9 respectively
• Canada ranked No. 8

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Fig 15 Per capita CO2 emission (2002)
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Fig 16 Sectoral contribution to Greenhouse Gases
emission (2000)
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Fig 17 Energy consumption and CO2 emission in
China
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Fig 17 Number of Vehicles for Civilian Use
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Fig 18 Per Capita Carbon Emission and Per Capita
Income
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The reason?

• Widespread awareness of the problem was
  relatively recent
• Costs of pollution were born externally

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Also a Prisoners Dilemma

• Consider two groups of countries facing the
  following choices
• Neither group adopts environmentally friendly
  policies (EFP). Outcome all economies grow
  rapidly because no resources are diverted to
  pollution abatement or prevention but a very bad
  environment.
• Group A adopts EFP, Group B doesnt. Outcome
  Group A becomes disadvantaged in the global
  economic competition but a better environment.
• Group B adopts EFP, Group A doesnt. Outcome
  Group B becomes disadvantaged in the global
  economic competition but a better environment.
• Both groups adopt EFP. Outcome no one is
  economically disadvantaged the best environment
  among the four choices.

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Solution

• A coercive authority or a third-party
  organization, e.g. government and the UN
• Kyoto Protocol
• To stabilize CO2 and five other Greenhouse Gases
  concentration in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system.

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Fig 19 Kyoto Protocol Participation
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Under Kyoto Protocol

• Developed countries
• Obligated to reduce GHG emission to a certain
  level by 2012
• Developing countries (including China)
• Do not have the obligation of emission reduction

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CO2 pollution in the near future

• Not so optimistic
• China has passed the EU and become the second
  largest CO2 emitter in the world
• China is building one coal-fired power plant
  every week (unsubstantiated)
• Not Chinas fault? (yet to be evidenced)

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The bright side

• Initiatives have been taken
• Scientific perspective of development (?????) by
  President Hu Jintao
• 30 environmental regulations 375 environmental
  standards by central government
• Over 900 environmental standards by local
  governments
• 95,000 staff in 8,400 departments mobilized to
  monitor and enforce these regulations

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Concluding remarks

• Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth We got
  everything we need to better our environment,
  save perhaps, political will
• A will to even sacrifice the current relative
  economic advantage
• The environmental issue is not an economic issue
  so much as a political issue

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A better environment
We hope that, with their excellence in
leadership and statesmanship, the political
leaders in the world will make this happen. And
were counting on them.
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THE ENDTHANK YOU!