Transportation Electrification

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Transportation Electrification

• Electricity and Natural Gas Model Inputs Workshop
• Rosenfeld Hearing Room
• February 26, 2015
• Aniss Bahreinian
• Demand Analysis Office
• Energy Assessments Division
• aniss.bahreinian_at_energy.ca.gov/ 916-653-0381

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Transportation Electrification
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Off-Road Transportation with Electrification
Option(Source EPRI, 2011 http//www.smartgridin
formation.info/pdf/4525_doc_1.pdf )
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Transportation Energy Forecasting Models

• Sector-specific demand models, each representing
  consumption behavior of that sector
• All economic models, accounting for the impact of
  time and/or cost of an activity or a product, as
  well as income and/or economic output in the
  choice process
• Account for tank-to-wheel energy consumption only

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Light Duty Vehicle Demand (LDV) Forecasting Models

• Use behavioral models to forecast statewide
  population of on-road Electric Vehicles (EV) and
  Plug in Hybrid Electric (PHEV) in California,
  separately for commercial and residential sectors
• The LDV models account for inter-fuel
  competition, between all fuel types, as well as
  competition between different classes of
  vehicles, on
• Fuel Prices
• Vehicle Prices
• Fuel Economy
• Range
• Other vehicle and fueling attributes
• Use a simple growth model to forecast
  Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEV)

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Other Transportation Electricity Use

• Statewide Electricity Use (Tank to Wheel)
• Light Rail/Other electrified urban transit
• High Speed Rail (post-processed, using Cal HSR
  assumptions and output)
• On-Road goods movement service trucks (Freight)
• Transportation Communication and Utilities (TCU)
  electricity demand model forecasts the stationary
  use of electricity in transportation-related
  facilities and buildings, such as transit
  stations, rail stations, high speed rail
  stations, fuel stations and others.
• Aspen Environmental Group will be forecasting
  electricity used in
• Sea ports airports
• Other off-road stationary and mobile equipment
  uses of electricity in transportation

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Key Inputs Specific to On-Road Transportation
Energy Demand Forecast

• Energy Prices
• Staff forecast of petroleum-based fuel prices is
  based on EIA crude oil price forecasts.
• Electricity and natural gas price forecasts are
  the same as those used in the divisions
  electricity and natural gas demand models.
• Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEV)
• Vehicle prices, fuel economy, and other
  attributes will be provided by Sierra Research.
• Consumer Preferences
• Assume these preferences remain constant, at
  levels assessed by the Commissions 2013
  California Vehicle Survey

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Other Transportation Electrification Assumptions
and Inputs

• No preference-based or economic models exist to
  forecast off-road vehicle or equipment
  populations.
• Aspen Environmental Group will attempt to use
  projections or extrapolations of present
  inventories from different agencies, such as ARB,
  EIA, ports, airports, and other existing studies
  of the various applications.

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Proposed Demand Cases

• IEPR Common Cases
• High Energy Demand (low energy prices, high
  income)
• Mid Energy Demand (mid energy prices and income)
• Low Energy Demand (high energy prices, low
  income)
• Transportation-Specific Demand Cases
• High petroleum demand (low liquid fuel prices
  high income high CNG, electricity hydrogen
  prices)
• Low petroleum demand (high liquid fuel prices
  low income low CNG, electricity hydrogen
  prices)
• All Demand Cases Assume
• Vehicles All current Fed State regs are in
  place for original equipment manufacturers,
  including Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV).
• Fuels All current Fed State regs are in place
  for transportation fuel suppliers.
• Vehicle liquid fuel prices are independent of
  California demand.

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Interested?Please attend the March 19, 2015
Workshop on Inputs and Assumptions for
Transportation Energy Demand Forecast