Department of Strategic and Defence Studies

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National Defence College
Department of Strategic and Defence Studies
Regional Conflicts Natural Resources Looking
for Reasons, Rationale and Solutions
DirectorColonel, Lic.Pol.Sci Juha Pyykönen
Sustainable Global Technologies HUT, 16 Oct 2006
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Regional Conflicts Natural Resources

• Part I
• Short introduction to a theoretical approach
• Case Study Oil Middle East
• Part II
• Explaining past, current and future conflicts
  through their root reasons

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Regional Conflicts Natural Resources

• Part I
• Theoretical approach is based on Strategic
  Studies
• state actors and their security goals to be met
  through necessary means
• a state is sovereign (nobody above to govern,
  anarchylack of governance)
• most important is sovereignty and independence
  of a state
• common distrust (security dilemma) resulting to
  arms race, competition
• key definitions (limits indicate number of
  deaths per year 25, total 1000)
• a conflict umbrella for all situations where
  contradicting interests are dealt with organized
  violence or a threat of it, includes a crisis
• a crisis situation with high level of threat
  and risk together with large destruction
• a war an organized and politically directed
  violence between sovereign states
• tools for conflict/crisis/war management
  numerous civilian and military activities in
  order to control and de-escalate in proportion to
  the level of a conflict/crisis/war

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
POLITICAL REALISMMAJOR FACTORS of a Grand
Strategy
Resources
Geopolitical
Political
Military
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• GEOGRAPHICAL factors
• Location
• Size and Shape
• Internal structure
• Terrain, waterways, obstacles
• Climate
• Soil, vegetation
• Natural Resources

• RESOURCE factors
• Natural resources
• Population
• Economics (structure, productivity, quality)
• Transport, Communication (SLOC)
• Academic research
• Technical development
• Costs

National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
D I S T A N C E S

• POLITICAL factors
• Political system, level of integration
• Political interests and goals
• Political situation (internal, global)
• Political history
• Conception of the world
• International agreements, commitments
• Common opinion

• MILITARY factors
• Military leadership
• Threat scenarios
• Military strategy
• Military power and organisation
• Technology
• Experiences, common tradition
• National cohesion

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies

• Conflicts have changed since the Cold War
• Main reasons for the change
• International system is more flexible
  (multi-/unipolar)
• Concept of security is much broader
• Closer linkage between political and economic
• Characteristics
• Nukes lost its linkage to Low Intensity
  Conflicts
• No states as parties to conflict, but non-state
• Victory as final goal less important, but
  compromises
• Need for new tools for conflict/crisis management

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Conflicts since WW II (1945-) 1 Annual number of
civilian and inter-state conflicts
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Conflicts since WW II (1945-) 2 Armed conflicts
1990-2000 (Wallensteen-Sollenberg 2001)
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Conflict Pyramid/Ladder/Cycle
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies

• Part II
• Explaining past, current and future conflicts
• through their root reasons
• 1st Example Population and Civil Conflict
• (Cincotta R. Engelman, R. Anastasion, D. The
  Security Demographic. Population and Civil
  Conflicts after the Cold War, Population Action
  International, 2003)
• 3 stress factors add to the risk of a civil
  conflict
• Young Adults
• Urbanization
• Availability of water and cropland
• In addition, losing 10 of work force in every 5
  years

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies

• Part II
• Explaining past, current and future conflicts
  through their root reasons
• 2 nd Example Governance and Civil Conflict
• (World Bank)
• Freedom of Opinion, Responsibility political,
  societal, human rights
• 2) Political instability and violence, incl.
  terrorism
• 3) Good Governance governance and quality of
  public services
• 4) Level of Administration in Economy
  hindrances of economy
• 5) Rule of Law Police, Independent
  Jurisdiction, Crime etc.
• 6) Level of Corruption

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Best with all 6 indicators

• Lähde World Bank

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies

• Part II
• Explaining past, current and future conflicts
  through their root reasons
• 3rd Example Conflict Indicators
• (World Bank)
• 9 indicating factors in relation to the risk of
  a conflict
• Low Per Capita
• Primary Commodity Exports (Dependence on)
• Youth Unemployment
• Militarization (GNP on Defence)
• Ethnic Dominance (Ethno-linquistic Group of
  Pop 45-90)
• Political and Civil Rights (Freedom House)
• Political Instability
• Reoccurrence of Conflict (in years)

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies

• Part II
• Explaining past, current and future conflicts
  through their root reasons
• 4th Example Reasons for Conflicts
• Smith, D. Atlas of war and peace, 2003)
• 4 reasons for war
• Poverty
• Human Rights
• Political System
• Ethnic Groupings

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Part II - Case Study Oil and Geopolitics in the
Greater Middle East
DirectorColonel, Lic.Pol.Sci Juha Pyykönen
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
CONSUMPTION TRENDSFrom coal to oil and towards
hydrogen ?
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Renewable energy sources (hydropower, wind etc.)
Medieval 1900
2050-
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Energy resources as a source for a conflict 1 (4)

• Most significant source for conflicts with
  military dimension
• Rationale Industrial countries heavily dependant
  on energy
• to be continued for 50-70 years
• One who controls oil and gas, rules
  energy-dependent states !
• Surplus oil regions today all are less
  developed
• Greater Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa
• Nigeria, Russia, Norway, Mexico, Venezuela
• Underproduction regions today all most
  developed countries
• EU, India, China, Japan, Australia, USA
• Sub-Saharan Africa, most of Latin America
• Most significant gas deposits located with oil !

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Energy resources as a source for a conflict 2 (4)

• Most significant producers in Greater Middle East
  Central Asia
• Characteristics of local players
• Saudi Arabia poor governance, terrorism,
  pro-American, internal problems
• Iraq oil and gas, poor governance,
  fundamentalism, internal divisions, internal
  post-war conflict, domestic terror
• Iran oil and gas, poor governance,
  fundamentalism, WMD
• Israel Palestine turmoil, pro-American and
  ally
• Afghanistan pipelines, post-war conflict, drug
  production
• Georgia pipelines, Russian and US interests
• Central Asia oil and gas, Chinese Russian
  American interests
• Caucasian oil and gas, pipelines, Russian
  influence, Nagorno-Karabah

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Energy resources as a source for a conflict 3 (4)

• Why USA has to gain control over the region?
• Need for energy, but preferably abroad thus
  saving domestic resources
• Islamic self-esteem and attitudes towards West
  increasingly hostile
• Biological fuels as a strategic resource only if
  no oil and gas available
• Alternative regions arent less challenging?
• Venezuela internal turmoil, risk of taxing
• Nigeria corruption, south-north conflict
  ongoing, bad governance
• Libya previously an evil, now rehabilitated
• Russia dependency on a former enemy not
  acceptable
• North Sea modest resources, used by allies in
  Europe
• Greater Middle East Central Asia retain their
  significance for next few decades for all major
  states except Russia

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US strategic goals with Iraqi invasion
Major Goal more stability control to the region
Counter Terrorism
Domestic Politics
WHY?
WMD
Promote values
Replace Government
Secured access to oil, gas
Show case, an example for others
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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Energy resources as a source for a conflict 4 (4)

• Any results ? What happened to the major goal to
  gain stability ?
• Higher threat level, more violence for everybody,
  deteriorated relationship
• Prolonged war, no acceptable end-state foreseen
  so far
• Anti-Americanism expanding to Saudi Arabia, USA
  had to leave it for neighbouring small states
• Internal violence increased, heavy losses for all
  parties
• Recruiting new terrorists easier than earlier
• Cheaper oil more abundantly ?
• Higher price level for good ?
• Global and regional economy declining
• Less Iraqi oil available in the market
• Other implications Homeland Security, budgetary
  deficits, protectionism..

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
Time-critical conclusions to an eternal issue

• Short-term development
• Key Iraqi oil production, Iranian policies,
  internal situation in Saudi Arabia
• USA continues to maintain control (through
  military means, if necessary)
• EU to get used to US policy, or to become
  dependent on Russias energy
• Long-term development
• China must find optional energy resources
  (Russia, Iran, Sudan)
• India should get her resources elsewhere (Iran)
• Russia will invest heavily on energy production
  to gain influence, currency
• Middle East producers looking for alternative to
  challenge US hegemony
• Finally, oil and gas maintain their status as the
  strategic resource!
• World revolves around oil for decades crises
  appear in the future, too
• However, enough oil and gas for next 50 years.

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National Defence College Department of Strategic
and Defence Studies
CONCLUSION

• A New Type of Conflict is A Reality
• Less military by nature
• More Political, Economic, Societal, Environmental
• Tools for Conflict/Crisis/War Management
  developed accordingly.
• Enhanced cooperation is a necessity.

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National Defence College
Department of Strategic and Defence Studies
QUESTIONS - COMMENTS - VIEWS
DirectorLieutenant Colonel, Lic.Pol.Sci Juha
Pyykönen