Population Dynamics - Trends

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• Population Dynamics - Trends
• Population Projections UN
• All scenarios include shifts in geographic
  distribution of population
• Medium variant
• Africa 21.4 of population in 2050 (14.0
  today)
• Asia 57.5 in 2050 vs. 60.4 today
• Europe 7.2 in 2050 vs. 11.3 today
• N. America 4.8 in 2050 vs. 5.1 today
• Latin America 8.6 in 2050 vs. 8.7 today
• Shifts in age structure

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• Population Environmental Effects
• I PAT (Ehrlich and Holdren)
• I Environmental Impact of nation
• P Population
• A Affluence (reflects consumption)
• T Technology (reflected in pollution)
• Ex Changes in CFC emissions related to
  technology, not population
• Developments in technology historically not
  directed toward environmental preservation
• Ecological Footprint
• Area per capita to provide resources utilized
• Compare to area available per capita in nation

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• Population Environmental Effects
• I PAT (Ehrlich and Holdren)
• I for one American equals
• 20 Costa Ricans
• 70 Bangladeshis
• UN Childrens Fund Child born today in US will
  have 250x impact of child born in sub-Saharan
  Africa over their lifetimes
• Different consumption patterns and life
  expectancies
• Annual US Population increase 2.9 million
• 58 million Costa Ricans (pop 4.1 million)
• 203 million Bangladeshis (pop 150 million)

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• Population Environmental Effects
• I PAT (Ehrlich and Holdren)
• Energy Usage - 1 American
• 2 Japanese
• 6 Mexicans
• 13 Chinese
• 32 Indians
• 372 Ethiopians
• Annual population increase in US 2.9 million
  people
• Equivalent in energy usage to adding
• 92.8 million Indians (actual 18 million)
• 1.079 billion Ethiopians!

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Background
• 1952 First country to institute national policy
  to limit population growth
• Family planning 13 of national health budget
• Result Annual population growth rate 1.7
  today vs. 1.3 in 1940s
• Why didnt the methods work?
• India very diverse, yet government selected
  blanket population control method for entire
  country

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Methods
• Voluntary sterilization
• Pre-1977 Vasectomies (male)
• Post-1977 Tubal ligation (female)
• Followed change in political regime precipitated
  in part by anger over coercive nature of
  vasectomy program
• Cash incentives to
• Medical personnel
• Program managers
• Individuals accepting sterilization
• Equivalent to three weeks of average wages
  (150)
• Problems
• Sterilization method offers little flexibility
• Chosen largely by older women who already had
  children and werent planning to have more

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Alternatives
• Suggestion that increasing economic prosperity
  should lead to a decline in population growth
  rate
• Correlation between GDP and TFR is weak
• Most important social factor affecting TFR seems
  to be female literacy rate
• Female literacy rate correlated positively with
• Higher age at marriage
• Greater contraceptive use
• Lower IMR
• All correlated with lower TFR

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Female Literacy Kerala (Case Study)
• Kerala State in SW India high population
  density
• Per-capita GDP 63 of national average
• Pre-1970s higher growth rate than national
  average
• Between 1972 and 1991, TFR in Kerala dropped from
  4.6 to 1.8, the lowest in India (Why?)
• Reasons
• Higher social status for women than is typical
  for India. Leads to increased education, higher
  literacy rate (83 vs. 48 nationally)
• Better family planning services
• Marxist government that fosters egalitarianism
  (belief in individual equality) and imposes high
  taxation that supports education, health care and
  small family norm