The Lever

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You want to know how to save various sources of
federal fundingthis will be tougher than you know

• You will only get the static analysis not the
  dynamic analysisfirst the stateOhio could have
  fired every state employee and not have the books
  balance in 2011

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That is just the General Revenue Fund
Transportation is even more doomed

• The youth drive gt 7.7
• Core inflator is 5 Decline in gas usage is 2
• Net loss of 2 pennies of tax
• Cash for Clunkers
• County Engineers/gravel
• Fed have propped up Highway trust with 30 B

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Now about the fed annual budget

• Prior to 12-31-12 the of GDP taken in taxes was
  15.5 Starve the Beast
• On 1-3-13 it was 19.5
• Historically we float between 18 and 19
• We are still spending 23 of GDP
• France is near 40
• To tax at 23 of GDP means we tax the upper two
  of six tax brackets at 78

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So now lets talk about the all funds federal
budget

• The operating fund deficit is 16 trillion
  Defense is 25, the two wars were 25 of that
• The all funds deficit is 87 trillion
• That includes all deficits such as Social
  Security at 20 trillion
• Medicare at 43 trillion
• 550 of our GDP

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• If we tax all income over 66 k/yr we get 5.1
  trillion
• If we tax all corporate profit we get 1.6
  trillion
• We could increase all taxes that high and still
  take a dozen years to dig ourselves out, or tax
  half that amount and take 24 yearswith not
  spending on anything else
• This is staticnot dynamic

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The tax system is hot

• Top 1 has risen to 41.8 in 2008 from 17.4 in
  1980
• 2/3rds income from the top 1 comes from nonwage
  income, including capital gains, dividends and
  proprietor's profits. (Docs sub chapter S)
• From 1960 to 2000, payroll taxes were never lower
  than in the previous year, individual income
  taxes dipped only twice, and corporate taxes
  dropped 11 times.
• Since 2000, individual income and corporate tax
  revenues dropped five times, while payroll taxes
  fell twice. Not only do revenues from individual
  tax returns drop more often now. They fall more
  severely, with recent collapses of 14-20 versus
  the 3-5 range before 2000.

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Just one more thin wafer

• Sotaxing the 1 more gives us more volatility
• The top 1 hold so much more wealth than
  traditionally
• Currently 90 of income tax comes from the top
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• 90 of wealth dissipated by third generation

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The Biology of Humans says tax the 1why?

• BRS we have five core values
• Security
• Health
• Children
• Family
• Fairness
• Fairness will be the battle of this age more on
  that in the book section

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So is there anything personally you should do?

• Dont buy a new car
• Dont upgrade your kitchen
• Encourage your kids not to go to Oberlin, but go
  to Wright State and study math
• Why?
• Since 1985, the number of college graduates in
  soft sciences has doubled, but hard science has
  stayed flat

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What can you read to prepare?

• MoneyBall by Michael Lewis staring DATA
• Every time you see the phrase Front office
  substitute in local governments
• The Big Sort by Bill Bishop Landslide Ctys
• Coming Apart by Charles Murray
• Buckeye Battleground by John Green
• The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe
• Capricious Chaos by some guy not yet

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Ok, how about professionally?

• Rep. Amstutz put all his chips on the table
• Local Government Innovation Fund
• You want to pay local governments to do the
  thing they should be doing?
• You can lead a horse but
• 45 million in loans and grants
• http//development.ohio.gov/cs/cs_localgovfund.htm
  

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What is the purpose?

• To promote shared services, collaboration and
  consolidation that result in both cost savings
  and better services.
• Contact your legislators to continue this program
  as this is your only hope to get that new car.
• The other thing is more data is coming
• SB 356 http//www.legislature.state.oh.us/bills.cf
  m?ID129_SB_356

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Look at the Cupp Report

• http//www.ode.state.oh.us/GD/Templates/Pages/ODE/
  ODEPrimary.aspx?page2TopicRelationID1441
• Costs of local government it will pass
• Get your costs down remember Money Ball
• Look to MA 242 regional housing authorities
  into six regional housing boards. Consolidation
  would save up to 10 million in annual
  administrative costs, while streamlining agencies
  and centralizing control
• Ohio is a data desert but not all data is helpful

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Sowhat do you do?

• Get paid to share your services
• Dont say you are doing everything you are doing
  everything you are comfortable
• Ask local businesses/CPAs to form an advisory
  team to perform a management audit team or ask
  AOS
• Have your associations work to develop chart of
  accounts
• Develop a plan for surviving without CDBG
• Strong charter county

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Finallyyou hopesome practical things

• Subscribe to Hannah News Services
• Have lunch with people you have nothing in common
  with
• Read those books
• Send me hate email at ekkrebs_at_gmail.com
• _at_GO_GeneK
• Send me examples of good and failed policies

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• It ought to be remembered that there is nothing
  more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to
  conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than
  to take the lead in introducing a new order of
  things, because the innovator has for enemies all
  those who have done well under the old
  conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who
  may do well under the new.  This coolness arises
  partly from fear of the opponents - who have the
  laws on their side - and partly from the
  incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in
  new things until they have had a long experience
  of them. Nicollo Machiavelli, The Prince

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