Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global Change

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Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global
Change

• Living with climate change are there limits to
  adaptation?
• Tyndall Centre and GECHS
• 2008
• Dennis Ojima
• Robert Corell
• (ojima_at_heinzctr.org)

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OUTLINE

• Global Climate Change and Impacts
• Impacts to Ecosystems
• Adaptation Strategies

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE,
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
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Warming greatest at high latitudes

• 5 warmest years 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
• Amplification of warming due to decrease of
  albedo (melting of snow and ice)

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IPCC 2007
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Signals from nature
Lara Hansen / WWF
Jeremy Little / University of Washington
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE,
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
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Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier

• Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days
  earlier than 40 years ago
• Laying date is highly correlated with May
  temperature

Source Camille Parmesan
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PINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK
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MPB BASIC ECOLOGY

• (1) Predator aggressive Bark Beetle
• (2) Co-evolution host defenses Small weak
  predator / large dangerous prey ? Mass Attack
  strategy
• (3) Required synchrony of emergence at
  appropriate time of year
• (4) No diapause direct Temperature Control of
  Seasonality

Interesting question Focus of seasonal
temperature triggers for overwintering
populations and synchronous emergence without
diapause
J. Logan
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A Concept for a Adaptation/Impacts Multi-Space A
framing within which coping strategies are
addressed
650 ppm 3.5 oC
550 ppm 3 oC
450 ppm 2 oC
Ocean Acidification
Sea Level Rise
Now 385 ppm
Biosphere Vulnerabilities
Pine Bark Beetles
Time Scale This Century
Coral Bleeching
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ADAPTATION DESIGN

• Adaptive Management practices are local and need
  to take into account the complex, non-linear
  behaviour of socio-ecological systems
• Use of appropriate scenarios and downscaling
  techniques of climate change effects
• Full risk/uncertainty assessments
• Projects need to be linked to capacity building
  technology transfer
• Co-development of an integrative management plan
  should treat the system as a socio-ecological
  system

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DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK
T1 Household goals, Initial conditions
Political Economy, Institutions
Resilience / Vulnerability
Household Decision-making
Mitigation
Infrastructure
Economy
Adaptation Strategies (long-term)
Change Scenarios
Land Use
Land Tenure
Ecosystem services
Coping Tactics (short-term)
Cooperation/Enabling Mechanisms
Demography
Climate and other Environmental Influences
Galvin et al
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SUMMARY

• Application of Adaptation Cascade in partnership
  with local communities, states, and other
  resource management entities
• Development of Adaptive management strategies to
  deal Ecological Thresholds
• Developing technological, scientific,
  socio-economic tools for addressing adaptation
  needs

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE,
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
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A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning
http//www.heinzctr.org/NEW_WEB/PDF/ Adaptat
ion_Report_October_10_2007.pdf
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE,
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT