Dr Georgios Amanatidis

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Climate change impact research in Africa
supported by the European Community Framework
Programmes
Dr Georgios Amanatidis European
Commission Research DG, Environment Directorate,
Climate change and environmental risks
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EC research the story so far
1952 ECSC treaty first projects started March
1955 1957 EURATOM treaty Joint Research Centre
set up 1983 ESPRIT programme 1984 First
Framework Programme (1984-1987) 1987 European
Single Act science becomes a Community
responsibility Second Framework Programme
(1987-1991) 1990 Third Framework Programme
(1990-1994) 1993 Treaty on European Union
role of RTD in the enlarged EU 1994 Fourth
Framework Programme (1994-1998) 1998 Fifth
Framework Programme (1998-2002) 2000 European
Research Area 2002 Sixth Framework Programme
(2002-2006) 2007 Seventh Framework Programme
(2007-2013)
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Outline

• Current FP6 climate projects on Africa
• AMMA
• Carbo-Africa
• 7th Framework Programme
• Themes and Priorities
• Research opportunities for Africa

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• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
• Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson
  Africaine
• Afrikanischer Monsun Multidisziplinäre Analysen
  
• Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
• Afrikanske Monsun Multidisciplinære Analyser
• Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones
  Africanos
• Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse

• Duration 5 years (1/1/2005 31/12/2009)
• EC Funding 13 M

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The AMMA strategy is geared towards
multidisciplinary research
The human dimension
The geophysical sphere
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The project funded by the European Community
is committed to achieve on

• Improving the short to medium range weather
  forecasting Current forecasts are poor and
  insufficient for any early warning system.
• Seasonal to climate forecasting Statistical
  forecasts are still better than deterministic
  once and there is no agreement on the impact of
  climate change.
• Improved tools for food security management
  West Africa is the most food insecure regions
  of the world.
• Enhance the environmental monitoring in the
  region This regions is the least well covered
  by atmospheric observations.
• Training and education The region lacks
  experts to advise decision makers or maintain
  operational observation and forecasting tools.

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AMMA-EU a consortium of 59 partners
22 African institutions are partners
Coordinator IPSL/CNRS

• Regional Centers
• AGRHYMET
• CERMES
• EIER
• ACMAD
• ASECNA

• Universities
• University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar (Senegal)
• University of Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)
• University of Bamako (Mali)
• University Abdou Moumouni (Niamey, Niger)
• University of Abomey Calavi (Benin)
• Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and
  Technology (Ghana)
• University of Jos (Nigeria)

• Weather services
• Mali
• Senegal
• Ghana
• Niger
• Guinée Conakry

• Agronomic and environment research centers
• ISRA, Senegal
• INERA, Burkina Faso
• IER, Mali
• CSE, Senegal
• CERAAS, Senegal

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Observational network for the the period
2005-2007
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Land Productivity

• Aim
• Quantify the impacts of climate variability on
  land productivity and agricultural yields.
• Objectives
• Improve forecast tools and crop yield models,
• Evaluate the potential of seasonal to decadal
  forecasts,
• Improve our understanding of the vegetation
  dynamics
• interactions between grass and trees
• Experimental trials in real and controlled
  conditions are underway to understand the role of
  the villager's practices and their impact on the
  mitigation of climatic factors

Institutions AGRHYMET (Niger), IBIMET (Italy),
IGUC (Denmark), CIRAD, CNRS, UPS (France), INERA
(Burkina), IER, U.Bamako, DNM (Mali), UAM, INRAN
(Niger), ISRA, UCAD, DMN, CERAAS (Senegal)
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Early Warning Systems for Food Security

• Aim
• To demonstrate how the results and products of
  AMMA research can be used to improve the
  efficiency of existing operational Early Warning
  Systems (EWSs) for food security
• Objective
• To test the application of AMMA information
  products for targeted users (farmers and national
  EWSs)
• integrating the information produced by national
  services,
• to provide inputs for the improvement of the food
  crisis forecasting timetable.

Institutions IBIMET CNR (Italy) AGRHYMET
(Niger) DMN Mali DMN Sénégal, DMN Niger, GMA
(Ghana).
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AMMA's objectives beyond the science

• Strengthen the scientific community in West
  Africa in order to ensure that climate change
  studies for the region are maintained over the
  long term.
• Contribute knowledge, expertise, methods and
  tools to national and regional operational
  centers.
• Facilitate the exchanges between the scientific
  community and the operation services in the
  region.
• Raise public awareness of environment issues for
  the development of the region in a changing
  climate.
• Adaptive capacity strengthening is a priority
  for West Africa.

Only a truly multidisciplinary project can
achieve these objectives.
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CARBOAFRICA
Quantification understanding and prediction of
C-cycle and other GHGs in Sub-Saharan
Africa European Commission, 6th Framework
Programme Duration 3 years (01/10/06
30/09/09) EC Funding 2.8 M Coordinator Prof.
Riccardo Valentini, University of Tuscia
(Italy) Participant currently 15 Institutions
(11 European, 3 African, FAO)
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CARBOAFRICA
Why CarboAfrica? Africa is a region highly
vulnerable to climate change due to both
ecological and socio-economic factors however it
is the least well-covered region by studies on
climate change.
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CARBOAFRICA
Sub-Saharan Africa and C-cycle 1- dominated by
biogenic processes (linked to climate
fluctuations) 2- low anthropic influence With
low fossil fuel emissions, Africas continental
scale carbon fluxes are dominated by biogenic
uptake and release from terrestrial ecosystems,
as well as fires and deforestation (Williams et
al., 2007).
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CARBOAFRICA
Main Objectives

• To set up and coordinate a first GHGs monitoring
  network of Sub-Saharan Africa, in order to
• better quantify GHGs emissions in Sub-Saharan
  Africa (considering also fires and deforestation)
  
• better understand the role of fire emissions on
  the African GHGs balance and its global
  implications
• better understand the Africa's role in the
  global climate system
• improve the assessment of the land use change
  and evaluate the potential for carbon
  sequestration (CDM)
• promote the integration of the environmental
  dimension in the African socio-economic context.

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CARBOAFRICA
THE NETWORK Carbon Flux network 18 stations, of
which 2 new (including the 1st in an African
tropical forest, in Ghana) 2 Atmospheric CO2
stations Airborne campaigns (CARE experiment)
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CARBOAFRICA
CarboAfrica and Kyoto Protocol (CDM and REDD) 1-
Specific regional studies in key areas are being
conducted, considering both carbon sources and
sinks, in order to evaluate the potential for
carbon sequestration in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Training on CDM opportunities will be provided to
African stakeholders. 2- Specific researches to
evaluate the potential for reducing emissions
from avoided deforestation and forest degradation
(post Kyoto 2012) in sub-Saharan Africa will be
considered.
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FP7 2007 2013 Specific Programmes
Cooperation Collaborative research
Ideas Frontier Research
People Marie Curie Actions
Capacities Research Capacity

JRC non-nuclear research
Euratom direct actions JRC nuclear research
Euratom indirect actions nuclear fusion and
fission research
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Cooperation Collaborative Research
Ten themes

• Health
• Food, agriculture and biotechnology
• Information and communication technologies
• Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materialsand new
  production technologies
• Energy
• Environment (including climate change)
• Transport (including aeronautics)
• Socio-economic sciences and the humanities
• Space
• Security
• Euratom Fusion energy research, nuclear
  fissionand radiation protection

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2. Food, Agriculture, Fisheries and Biotechnology

• Objective
• Building a European Knowledge Based Bio-Economy
  by bringing together science, industry and other
  stakeholders, to exploit new and emerging
  research opportunities that address social,
  environmental and economic challenges the
  growing demand for safer, healthier, higher
  quality food and for sustainable use and
  production of renewable bio-resources, the
  increasing risk of epizootic and zoonotic
  diseases and food related disorders threats to
  the sustainability and security of agricultural,
  aquaculture and fisheries production and the
  increasing demand for high quality food, taking
  into account animal welfare and rural and coastal
  context and response to specific dietary needs of
  consumers.
• Key Activities
• Sustainable production and management of
  biological resources from land, forest and
  aquatic environments
• (1st CALL development of climate proof
  food crops novel forest breeding to improve
  adaptation to climate change)
• - Fork to farm Food (including seafood), health
  and well being
• - Life Sciences, biotechnology and biochemistry
  for sustainable non-food, products and processes

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6. Environment (including Climate Change)

• Objective
• Sustainable management of the environment and
  its resource through advancing our knowledge of
  the interactions between the climate, biosphere,
  ecosystems and human activities, and developing
  new technologies, tools and services, in order to
  address in an integrated way global environmental
  issues.
• Emphasis will be put on prediction of climate,
  ecological, earth and ocean systems changes, on
  tools and on technologies for monitoring,
  prevention, mitigation of and adaptation to
  environmental pressures and risks including on
  health, as well as for the sustainability of the
  natural and man-made environment.
• Key Activities
• Climate change, pollution and risks
• Sustainable management of resources
• Environmental Technologies
• Earth Observation and assessment tools for
  sustainable development

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Budget for FP7-Environment

• Total FP7 budget 50.521 bn
• Total Cooperation programme budget 32.413 bn
• Total budget for Environment theme 1.886 bn
• Indicative breakdown
• No increase of budget in 2007, 2008 compared to
  2006
• Sharp increase only from 2011
• In 2013 expenditure 60 higher than in 2006

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International Cooperation of Environmental
Research

• Climate change Global dimension with strong
  effort on international cooperation
• International cooperation benefits exchange and
  share of knowledge, assist in building effective
  policies, effective response
• A number of current EU-funded projects focus on
  important climate change issues in developing
  countries (e.g. AMMA, CLARIS)
• FP open to international partners all over the
  world

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Environment (incl. climate change)

• Pressures on environment and climate (39M )
• Environnent and health (16M )
• Natural Hazards (13M )

Climate change, pollution and risks

• Conservation and sustainable management of
  natural and man-made ressources (26M )
• Evolution of marine environments (21M )

Sustainable management of resources
Environmental Technologies

• Technologies for observation of the natural and
• man-made environment (38M )
• Protection of culture heritage (7M )
• Technology assessment, verification, testing (5M
  )

• Earth observation (21M )
• Forecasting methods and assessment tools (11M )

Earth observation and assessment tools
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Pressures on Environment and
Climate 1st Call (WP 2007) 39 M
The Earth System and Climate Functioning
abrupt changes
The Global Carbon cycle and GHG budgets
Climate Change Natural and Socio-economic Impacts
Response strategies Adaptation, Mitigation and
Policies
Natural and anthropogenic emissions and pressures
Future Climate
Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation THOR
Air quality and climate in megacities CITYZEN MEG
APOLI
Climate change impacts in the Parana-Plata river
basin CLARIS LPB
Full costs of climate change CLIMATECOST
Ocean acidification EPOCA
Climate change impacts on mountain regions ACQWA
Impacts of climate policies on land use and
ecosystems CCTAME
Climate Change impacts adaptation strategies in
water policies CLIMATEWATER
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Pressures on Environment and
Climate 2nd Call (WP 2008) 42 M
The Earth System and Climate Functioning
abrupt changes
The Global Carbon cycle and GHG budgets
Climate Change Natural and Socio-economic Impacts
Response strategies Adaptation, Mitigation and
Policies
Natural and anthropogenic emissions and pressures
Future Climate
New components in Earth System modelling
Water resources in Northern India, and adaptation
strategies
Climate-chemistry interactions in the stratosphere
Sea-Level Rise
Analysis of emerging economies in a post-Kyoto
regime
Addressing deforestation in tropical areas
Climate variability terrestrial carbon cycle
Risks of novel options to limit climate change
Arctic Ocean ecosystems
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FP7 Climate change research roadmap (WP 2009-2010)

• impacts of climate change on key sectors such as
  tourism, agriculture, forestry, with the aim to
  improve the link between climate, hydrological,
  bio-physical and socio-economic parameters
• tropospheric chemistry, biosphere and climate
  interactions
• process-oriented validation in earth system
  modelling
• networking activities for research collaboration,
  databases and dissemination in different climate
  related fields such as on atmospheric composition
• Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa,
  quantification of impacts and assessment of
  adequate adaptation measures (SICA)
• Changes in mean flow and extreme hydrological
  events in Europe and neighbouring countries as a
  threat to security (SICA)
• earth system functioning and related critical
  thresholds
• pollution of water and soil on global and
  regional scale linked to biogeochemical cycles
• biogeochemical and physical processes controlling
  the magnitudes and distribution of ocean carbon
  sources and sinks at different time scales
• climate change impacts on biodiversity and
  terrestrial ecosystems
• networking and cooperation with non-EU countries
  such as China, to disseminate and use research
  results for adaptation strategies (coordinated
  call with Energy Theme)
• optimal synergy between national, European and
  international policies and measures addressing
  adaptation during their development and
  implementation processes.

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Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa
(east to west), quantification of impacts and
assessment of adequate adaptation measures

• The quality of seasonal forecasts and decadal
  climate change predictions should be improved
  over the Sub-Saharan African region (east to
  west) through better use and development of
  forecasting models on seasonal to decadal
  climatic scales. It will increase our confidence
  in the simulated sensitivity of rainfall
  perturbations due to changes of increased
  greenhouse gases, land-use, etc. Furthermore, a
  better understanding of climate impacts and
  improved forecasting capabilities are needed in
  key sectors such as water resources and
  agriculture. With these tools and taking into
  account the socio-economic aspects of African
  societies, the vulnerability to inter-annual
  variations and longer trends in climate can be
  evaluated. This in turn will lead to adaptation
  strategies for which their feasibility and
  associated costs will be assessed. This topic
  needs to have a strong involvement of the African
  research community.

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Changes in mean flow and extreme hydrological
events in Europe and neighbouring countries as a
threat to security

• The project will analyse ongoing and future
  climate induced changes in hydrological budgets
  and extremes in Europe and neighbouring
  countries. This will include the assessment of
  changes in mean flows, frequency and magnitude of
  extreme precipitation (intensity and duration),
  run-off, stream flows and ground water balance.
  Modelling capabilities should be improved to
  better quantify such changes over the next
  decades, and modelling should integrate
  meteorological/climatic and hydrological aspects
  to better quantify such changes and associated
  risks.
• In the case of neighbouring countries, these
  changes will be analysed as a threat to security
  In an interdisciplinary assessment, conclusions
  from the climate and hydrological study combined
  with research on conflicts and peace, in a
  comparative manner, may allow to identify factors
  that can enhance social, institutional and
  economic resilience, prevention of violent
  conflicts and peace building though cooperation
  over access to natural resources. Climate and
  hydrological analysis together with analysis on
  conflicts and peace will be part of the
  interdisciplinary project.
• Specific International Cooperation Action SICA
  targeted to North Africa and neighbouring
  Mediterranean countries, and/ or Sahel, and/ or
  Middle East

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Information

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  esearch/future/index_en.cfm
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• http//cordis.europa.eu/
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• http//ec.europa.eu/research/rtdinfo/
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