Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Working Group II Climate Change
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
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(No Transcript)
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The beginnings

• Apr 2002 Plenary agrees 4th Assessment
• Feb 2003 1st scoping mtg structure planned
• Sep 2003 2nd scoping meeting chapter outlines
  finalised
• Nov 2003 Plenary approves WG2 outline

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Implementation

• Year Date Activity
• 2003 Nov Call to Governments for expert
  nominations
• 2004 Jan - Apr WGII Bureau selection of CLAs, LAs
  and REs
• Sep 1st Lead Author meeting
• 2004 Nov Dec Informal review of 0th draft
• 2005 Mar 2nd Lead Author meeting
• 2005 Jul - Aug Expert review of 1st draft
• 2006 Jan 3rd Lead Author meeting
• 2006 Jun-Jul Government and Expert
  review of 2nd draft
• Sep 4th Lead Author meeting
• 2006 Dec draft to
  Governments
• 2007 Jan-Feb Final government review
• 2007 Apr Approval by WGII Plenary

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Staffing the Assessment

• 40 Coordinating lead authors (2 per chapter)
• 120 Lead authors (6 per chapter)
• About 1000 expert reviewers (c. 50 per chapter)
• 40 Review Editors (2 per chapter)

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Proposed Guiding Principles in Developing WGII
AR4

• Focus on the assessment of NEW knowledge since
  2001 Third Assessment
• Be more concise than Third Assessment (aim
  two-thirds the length of TAR, i.e. 700 pages
  instead of 1000)
• Make better connections to WGI and WGIII.
• Wider use of literature in non-English journals,
  reports, etc
• And maintain continued principles form prior
  assessments, viz
• a) to be policy- relevant not
  policy-prescriptive.
• b) to aim for a balanced coverage which is
  integrated, accessible, and
  understandable and NB balance in WGII means
  equal treatment of positive and negative
  effects
• c) to be conducted by the most able
  scientists, from all regions.

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Some Key Conclusions Of WGII THIRD Assessment

• Some effects of regional climate change can be
  observed now.
• Some sectors more vulnerable than others, but not
  specific
• Some regions more vulnerable than others, but not
  specified apart small small islands
• Changes in extremes could have major
  consequences
• Adaptation is a necessary strategy to complement
  mitigation yet capacity varies greatly.

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How future assessments can be improved
Recommendations Of WG2 Third Assessment
(Policymakers Summary, p. 17)

• More quantified assessment of all aspects,
  including in relation to extreme events
• Assessment of possible thresholds
• Understanding responses to multiple stresses
• Improved knowledge of adaptation costs,
  obstacles, options
• Assessment of the full range of impacts
  monetary and non-market, in multiple metrics, eg
  numbers of people affected, land areas, species
  at risk, etc.
• Improved regional assessment
• Impacts under different stabilisation levels
• Advances in relation to a) risk assessment and
  management b) decision-making processes c)
  sustainable development initiatives.
• Improved monitoring and observing effects of
  climate and other stresses on human and natural
  systems

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LOOKING AHEAD TO FOURTH ASSESSMENTWhat are the
science questions relevant to policy?

• SCIENCE QUESTIONS
• Where are the key vulnerabilities regions,
  sectors?
• What would be rates/magnitudes/types of climate
  change that could lead to these effects?
• Extent/limits of adaptive capacity?
• Its effectiveness and cost? (especially vs.
  mitigation)
• How does vulnerability and adaptive capacity vary
  under different paths of economic/social
  development?
• Extent to which early effects are detectable,
  now?
• Evidence for (and measurement of) effectiveness
  of (current) adaptation?

• KEY POLICY ISSUES
• Avoiding certain key effects
• Developing effective adaptation
• Seeking sustainable development in a future with
  climate change
• Meeting the challenge of climate change and
  variability now

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Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions
N. England
0 -
S. Europe

• Yield

0.5
1.0
Deg C
N. India
Local food production ? Regional food security
? Global food security ?
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The initially identified Four Key Issues for
WGII in Fourth Assessment(presented to Plenary,
Paris 2003)

• Assessment of effects which are observable now,
  and what can we learn from these.
• Assessment of the likely effects of future
  unmitigated climate change, and how might these
  vary under different development pathways.
• Assessment of knowledge concerning effects
  avoided or reduced by adaptation.
• Assessment of knowledge concerning the estimated
  impacts/adaptation requirements under different
  levels of mitigation

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The Cost of Stabilising CO2 Concentrations(from
Synthesis Report of TAR)
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EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION
Costs at local, national, global or project
level (Missing from TAR)
Costs of damage
Costs of mitigation
COST
DAMAGE
Reduction in Atmospheric CO2 ppm
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What do we know about the connections between
mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?
All mitigation
Mix of mitigate/ adapt/ impact
No action
All adaptation
Cost of adaptation
less
more
(Holdridge diagram)
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Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Cross cutting
themes

• Uncertainty and risk
• Integration of Mitigation and Adaptation
• Article 2 of the UNFCCC and key vulnerabilities
• Sustainable Development
• Regional Integration
• Water
• Technology

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The effect of different global economic pathways
(SRES)

• Regional enterprise high pop, mod. growth, (A2)
• Local stewardship semi-sustainable dev, low
  pop (B2)

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A2 in 2050s B2

• Pop 11.3 billion
• GDP 82 tr
• primary energy 970 GJ/yr
• carbon 16 GtC/yr

• Pop 9.3 billion
• GDP 110 tr
• primary energy 870 GJ/yr
• carbon 11 GtC/yr

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Global additional people at risk of hunger under
the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios (Parry,2004, UK
Defra
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3.6
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EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION
Costs at local, national, global or
project level
Costs of adaptation
Costs of mitigation
Costs of damage
Low Adaptation
COST
DAMAGE
High Adaptation
Reduction in Atmospheric CO2 ppm
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OUTLINE FOR WORKING GROUP II IPCC FOURTH
ASSESSMENT REPORTCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS,
ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

• Summary for Policymakers Technical Summary
• Introduction
• I. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES
• 1. Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and
  Managed Systems
• II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
  SECTORS AND SYSTEMS
• 2. New Methods and Scenarios of the Future
• 3. Fresh Water Resources and their Management
• 4. Ecosystems and their Services
• 5. Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries
• 6. Coasts and Low-lying Areas
• 7. Industry, Settlement, and Society
• 8. Human Health
• III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND
  ADAPTATIONREGIONS
• 9 Africa, 10 Asia, 11 Australia and New
  Zealand, 12 Europe, 13 Latin America
• 14 North America, 15 Polar Regions (Arctic and
  Antarctic), 16 Small Islands
• IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS
• 17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity
  and Practice
• 18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between
  Adaptation and Mitigation
• 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk
  from climate change

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Intro to Section III Assessment future impacts
and adaptation of Effects Regions
Content guide for chapters 9 to 16 in Section
III 1. Summary of knowledge assessed in TAR 2.
Current sensitivity/vulnerability to weather and
climate and to other stresses current
adaptation 3. Assumptions about future trends
climate, development, technology, etc. 4.
Summary of expected impacts key vulnerabilities
and their regional variation 5. Adaptation
regional differences in practices, options and
constraints 6. Implications for sustainable
development 7. Key uncertainties, unknowns,
research gaps and priorities
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Implementation

• Year Date Activity
• 2003 Nov Call to Governments for expert
  nominations
• 2004 Jan Apr selection of CLAs,
  LAs and REs
• Sep 1st Lead Author meeting
• 2004 Nov Dec Informal review of
  0th draft
• 2005 Mar 2nd Lead Author meeting
• 2005 Jul - Aug Expert review of 1st draft
• 2006 Jan 3rd Lead Author meeting
• 2006 Jun-Jul Government and Expert
  review of 2nd draft
• Sep 4th Lead Author meeting
• 2006 Dec draft to
  Governments
• 2007 Jan-Feb Final government review
• 2007 Apr Approval by WGII Plenary

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Evolution of IPCC assessments

• FAR
• Constructing the foundation
• Explaining the climate system
• Input for the UNFCCC
• SAR
• Input for the Kyoto Protocol
• TAR
• Emphasis on impacts and adaptation in COP-8
• AR4
• Post 2012 relevance