??? (Ayo)

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???????????

• ??? (Ayo)
• ???? ??????? ??
• E-mail Japalura_at_hotmail.com

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???????

• ?????,???????????,????????????,????,??????
• ???????????????????????????????

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?? (assessment)

• ?? ?? ??
• ?? (analysis)???????????????,?????????,??????????
  ??
• ?? (evaluation)?????????,????????,??????????

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????

1. ????????? (???????)?
2. ??????,????????
3. ???????????

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??????
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????????????

• ??????????,??????
• ?????????????????
• ??????????????
• ????????
• ?????,????,??????

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????

1. ??? Aswan ??????
2. ??????????????????
3. ??????????
4. ??????????
5. DDT??
6. ??????????

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?? Aswan ???????
??1

• ???,? AD 1902 (??? Sir William Willcocks)
• ??????,???????????
• ??????
• (1) ?????????, ??????
• (2) ???????, ???????
• (3) ?????
• ????? 6,250,000 ????? 25,000 km2
• ??? 1,730,000 ?? (27.6) ??????? 4,520,000
  ??????,?????
• (4) ??????2????

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?? Aswan ???????
??1

• ????AD1960s ,? AD1970???
• 1. ????,?????
• 2. ??????
• ?? (??)
• 1. ????????
• 2. ?????????,???? 38??????,??????
• 3. ????,???????????

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?? Aswan ????? (?)
??1

• 1. ???????, ??????
• 2. ????, ?????????
• 3. ????? Lake Nasser (Aswan ??) ? ?500?????,
  1400??????
• 4. ??? Sardines ??????
• AD 1650??, ??????????/ ??
• AD 1968, ????????
• AD 1971, ????????
• ???? Lake Nasser

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?? Aswan ????? (?)
??1

• 5. ??? Sumer ??????????
• 6. Nubians ??????,????
• 7. ????????,??????
• 8. ???????,??malaria, hookworms, blood flukes?
• 9. ?????,?Aswan High Dam ???

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????????Aswan?
??1

• ?????,???????,?????
• ?????
• ?????????????
• ??????,?????????
• ????????

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?????????????????
??2

• ???????????????,???????62?????(?1)?
• ??????????????,?????????????,?1??,????95 (?2)?
• ???????,???????????(?3)??????????????????????,????
  ?????????????,?????????????????(?3)?

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??2
?1. ?????????????????? (global warming)???????????
??
????????? 2090 ??,??????????3 ??????????? 2175
??,???????? 6 ???????????? 2090 ??,???????? 6
?? ??????Nordhaus (1994),p.48,Figure2?
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??2
?2. ?????????????????? (global warming)
????????????????? ??????????????,??1? ??????Nordha
us (1994),p.48,Figure3?
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???????(?????)
??2
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??????????

• ????? (median) ????????
• ??????????????
• ?????,??????????
• ????????

??2
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??????????
??3

• ??????????????????,?????????????
• ?????????,???????
• ?????,????????
• ?????????,????????
• ???????????

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??????,??????

• ???????,????????
• ?????????
• ?????????

??3
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???????????
??4

• ????????????
• ??????????,345 KV ? 161 KV???????????(??70?????)?
  
• ??????72??????,????5???????
• ??
• ?? 161 KV? 345 KV,??72????????????9.7 mG (?? 0.4
  61.6 mG) ? 6.0 mG (??0.6 30.3 mG)

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???????????
??4

• Ahlbom, et. Al (2000)?????,?????????0.5 16
  mG??,??????,? 1 mG ?1 - ? 2 mG?2 ?4 mG??
  4mG,????????????????
• ????,???????345KV?161KV??70???,???????????????8.42
  ??6.78??
• ???????? 0.4 61.6 mG,?????? 16
  mG???????????????????

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???????????
??4

• ?????????????(International Agency for Research
  on Cancer, IARC)???,0-14???????????? 3 4
  mG??,???????????????,????1 mG???2??
• ???????? ? 20???21-40???41-70?????,?72????????18.3
  mG (2.4 - 61.6mG)?3.8 mG (1.2 10.6mG)?1.5 mG
  (0.4 4.4mG)?

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??4
?5. ?????????????????????(mG)?
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?????????
??4

• ? 1 mG?????,??????????? gt 70???(???? gt 100??)
• ? 3 mG???,
• ?????????,?? gt 70??
• ??????,??? gt 41??
• ???????

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DDT???
??5

• Scientists and manufactures considered DDT
  totally risk-free when first marketed in the late
  1940s, and data that documented ill effects took
  nearly 20 years to surface.

Fig. 2. DDT gets praise from an advertisement in
the June 30, 1947, issue of Time.
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DDT ????
??5

• DDT Dichloro-Dipheny-Trichloroethane
• ??-??-????
• DDT??????
• ???????1874?
• ?1939?,????????? (Paul Muller)
• ?????????1940?????
• 1948? Paul Muller ???1939??????????????

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DDT??????
??5

• 1947??,DDT??????????
• 1957?,???????DDT?????,???????
• 1962?,Rachel Carson ?Silent Spring
• 1963?5?,????????????DDT????????
• 1967?,DDT??????????
• 1972?6?14?,???9,312?(??125?????)???,??350???????,?
  ?????????,?????

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• ????????,??????????,???6???74???
• ??????????????,1982?????

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DDT???
??5

• ??????????????,???????????,?????
• ???????,?? 10?? (1940s - 1950s)?
• ?????????????,??? 20 ?(1940s 1960s)?
• ??????????,???????????,??? 9 ? (1963 1972)
• ???,??????,???????
• ?????????????

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????????Transgenic Crops
??6

• Genetically engineered plants might generate weed
  problems and affect non-target organisms, but
  measuring the risk is difficult.
• ???? Marvier, M. (2001) Ecology of transgenic
  crops. American Scientist 89(2) 160-167.

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???????
??6

• On May 20, 1999, a short article in Nature called
  attention to a potential ecological problem with
  a genetically engineered, or transgenic, crop.
• Losey and his colleagues at Cornell Univ.
  reported that a variety of transgenic corn could
  kill the larvae of monarch butterflies.

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Fig. 1. Monarch caterpillars feed on a milkweed
leaf dusted with pollen from corn that was
genetically engineered to resist pest. Plant
breeders can transfer a gene from a bacterium
called Bacillus thuringiensis into corn, which
causes it to produce an insecticidal compound,
commonly called Bt toxin.
Losey and his colleagues found that only 56 of
the monarch larvae survived when fed milkweed
plants coated with transgenic corn pollen,
whereas 100 of larvae survived when the plants
were coated with non-transgenic corn pollen.
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Fig. 5. This corn releases an insecticidal
compound (red) through its roots into the soil.
That compound can remain insecticidal for 230
days or more and could impact populations of soil
organisms. In addition, pollen from Bt corn
(blue) can travel as far as 60 meters, where it
coats the surface of non-crop plants. Non-target
insects, including monarch butterfly larvae,
consume some of the windblown corn pollen.
??6
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??? vs. ???
??6

• Opponents of transgenic crops help up the report
  as evidence of the potentially devastating
  environmental impact.
• Proponents largely dismissed this
  laboratory-based research as unrepresentative of
  conditions on real farms.
• ?????

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What is significantly safe?
??6

• Transgenic crops that produce insect toxins must
  undergo two separate reviews of environmental
  safety before they can be sold commercially in
  the U.S.
• EPA reviews laboratory studies assessing a crops
  effects on particular non-target organisms,
  including pollinators, predatory insects and,
  often, soil invertebrates.
• Sufficient field data regarding a crops
  performance and safety.

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?????
??6

• As of July 2000, the US ???????50????????14???????
  ???,?????Bt toxin?
• ?????????Bt toxin??????????????????

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?????!
??6

• ???????
• ??97-012-01p
• ??A variety of Bt cotton
• In experiments designed to test this transgenic
  crops impact on soil invertebrates,
  investigators placed four replicate batches of
  earthworms with 10 worms per batch in soil that
  included ground leaves from either transgenic or
  non-transgenic cotton.
• ??14??

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Fig. 6. The batches of earthworms exposed to Bt
cotton increased in weight on average by 49 (?).
The earthworms exposed to non-transgenic cotton
increased in weight on average by 78.5 (?).

• ????????29.5,??????????????
• ???????????????????
• ??,???????14?,????????

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Setting standards for sampling
??6

• ??
• ??94-257-01p
• ??a Bt potato
• ????????????????????,??????????????????????,?????
  ?

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??6

• ??
• The Swiss Federal Research Station found that
  green lacewings, which are beneficial predatory
  insects, experienced 62 mortality when fed a
  diet of pests reared on Bt corn, but only 37
  mortality when fed pests reared on non-transgenic
  corn.
• ???200?? per treatment.
• ????????? over the entire life span????

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????????

• ????????????,????????,?????????
• ????,???
• ???????,????????
• ????????,??????????????
• ??????,??????????
• ???? Synergetic effects (????),??????????

??6
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????

1. ??? Aswan ??????
2. ??????????????????
3. ??????????
4. ??????????
5. DDT??
6. ??????????

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?????Ayo ???
http//mail.nutn.edu.tw/hycheng
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?? ? ??!