Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents

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Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents

• 100 male
• 100 Caucasian
• 97 Protestant
• 82 of British ancestry
• 77 college educated
• 69 politicians
• 62 lawyers
• gt50 from the top 3 wealth and social class
• 0.5 born into poverty
• 69 elected from large states

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Constitutional Qualifications

• Must be at least 35 years old
• Must have lived in the United States for 14 years
• Must be a natural born citizen

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Presidential Benefits

• 400,000 tax-free salary
• 50,000/year expense account
• 100,000/year travel expenses
• The White House
• Secret Service protection
• Camp David country estate
• Air Force One personal airplane
• Staff of 400-500

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Head of State
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Chief Executive
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Commander-in-Chief
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Chief Legislator
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Chief Diplomat
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Political Party Leader
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Presidential Power

• Difference between legal powers and power (which
  is the exercise of influence).
• Powers include the constitutional and legal
  authority of the president
• National Security Powers Commander in Chief,
  make treaties executive agreements, nominate
  ambassadors.
• Legislative Powers State of the
  Union--recommend legislation, convene/adjourn
  Congress, veto.
• Executive Powers to faithfully execute the law
  nominate executive officials (and fire them).
• Judicial Powers reprieves and pardons for
  federal offenses appoint federal judges and
  S.C. justices.

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Presidential Power

• How much power (not powers) do presidents have?
  Depends on the political context in which they
  govern something which they have little control
  over.
• Presidential power is the power to persuade--
  presidents must often bargain in order to
  persuade. Few things can be done alone.
• Examples FDR, GW Bush.
• Viewed this way, power (influence) fluctuates
  from president to president, and within
  presidencies.

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The Constituencies of Modern Presidency

• The American People
• Their Party
• Executive Branch (the bureaucracy)
• Congress
• Foreign Leaders.
• All of these look to the president for
  leadership.
• May see things differently, however.
• A Presidents ability to persuade relates more to
  things he cannot control (e.g. partisan division
  of Congress), rather than things they can control.

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The President the Public

• Public approval is an important resource for
  presidential leadership. Where is Bush now?
• Approval fluctuates with time.
• The honeymoon Approval generally highest early
  during the term.
• Generally declines over time.
• Approval levels typically reflect public
  evaluation of the handling of important issues
  (economy, war, etc.).
• They are not a reflection of their feelings
  regarding the presidents personality.

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The natural decline of approval over time
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Average approval during terms (1st term Bush)
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The President the Public

• The salient issues tend to be most important in
  determining public approval. Priming.
• Rally events help explain sudden upsurges in
  approval as a result of a foreign policy event
  involving the US.
• Most approval rallies are short-lived, however.
• 9/11 would be an example of an enduring rally,
  one that is not typical.

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Presidential Effects on Opinion

• Presidents try to persuade the public to gain
  support, generally, and for specific proposals.
• How successful are they?
• It depends. Popular presidents are more likely
  to be successful.
• For a speech to work, the public must react
  favorably, and then make it clear to Congress
  what they want.
• Presidential speeches designed to influence the
  public have generally been unimpressive.
• They rarely persuade the public.

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Presidents the Executive Branch

• As chief executive, President is charged with
  overseeing vast federal bureaucracy.
• Size of executive branch has increased
  drastically since the 1930s.
• Before 1939, presidents had little help in this
  task. 1939- creation of the Executive Office of
  the Presidency (EOP). Has 11 offices, incl
• National Security Council
• The Council of Economic Advisors
• The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)-- most
  important.

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Presidents, White House Staff Cabinet

• The Cabinet includes department secretaries.
• Modern presidents rely less on their cabinet for
  advice.
• Cabinet secretaries have mixed loyalties.
• Must satisfy Congress interests.
• Hence, modern presidents have relied on EOP to
  manage bureaucracy and their White House staff
  for political and policy advice.
• White House staff work directly for President.
• This might limit diversity of advice.

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Managing/Leading the Bureaucracy

• Despite their role as chief executive, modern
  presidents have been frustrated leading the
  bureaucracy.
• Agencies often resist presidential leadership.
• Modern presidents have tools to help in task
• The appointment power. Changing agency
  leadership can influence what agencies do.
• Budgetary control. Using the carrot and stick of
  agency resources, presidents request budgets.
• Centralized management, through the OMB.

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Presidential Leadership of Congress

• Myth of strong presidents dominating Congress.
• Evidence suggests otherwise. Presidents are weak
  relative to Congress, must bargain to persuade.
• Presidents greatest influence what goes into
  the legislative funnel (legislative agenda
  setting).
• 40 of legislative agenda are presidential
  initiatives.
• Rises to 50 during unified govt Only 25
  during divided government.

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Presidential Leadership of Congress

• Most powerful legislative tool the Veto.
• Requires 2/3rds majority in both chambers of
  Congress to pass bill over a veto.
• Very difficult to override. Only 12 of vetoes
  (since Eisenhower) have been overridden.
• Even fewer overrides recently (see table).
• The Veto is a tool of minority presidents
  (presidents during divided government).
• Threat of veto important as well.
• Presidents can help shape legislation through
  veto threats.

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3 Essential Leadership Resources

• 1. Political Party. Members of his party are
  predisposed to support the president.
• On average a member of the presidents party
  supports the president about 70 of the time.
• Has increased during polarized era.
• Much lower among the opposing party.
• Presidents have little impact on the number of
  their partisans in Congress.
• Presidential coattails-- uncommon, and disappears
  by the midterm election.

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2006 GW Bush -30
-6
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3 Essential Leadership Resources

• 2. Public Support can help the president persuade
  Congress.
• A necessary, but insufficient resource for
  leadership.
• Results are mixed, but most research suggests
  only a marginal relationship between approval and
  legislative support.
• 3. Legislative skills. Some presidents are more
  skilled than others.
• Bargaining takes skill, understanding of process.
• Skilled presidents generally best at determining
  an effective strategy.

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Presidential Legislative Strategies for Success

• Move quickly once elected.
• Take advantage of the honeymoon that follows
  inauguration.
• Legislative success usually comes early.
• Focus the agenda by setting clear priorities on a
  few important items.
• Understand the strategic situation. Many
  presidents attempt too much, given context.
• Consult with Congress, dont alienate them.