Humble I.S.D.

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Humble I.S.D.

• Demographic Update
• Part 1 of 4
• Firm Overview
• Demographic Approach
• November 2007
• Presented to the Humble ISD Board of Trustees
• November 13, 2007
• Presented to the 2008 Bond Study Committee
• November 15, 2007
• Population and Survey Analysts
• 303 Anderson Street, College Station, TX 77840
• www.pasademographics.com

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Population Survey Analysts
Firm Overview Demographic Approach for
H.I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Student Trends Employment
Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing
Projections Ratios Students per Household per
Subdivision Current Student Population
Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment by
Planning Unit
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Population and Survey Analysts

• Largest Demographic Firm in Texas
• Work Only with School Districts
• Work with Approximately 30-35 Districts per Year
• Has a 20 Year Relationship with Real Estate
  Experts and City Planners in Houston Metro Area
• Demographic Team includes Specialists in
  Economics, Geography, Legal Issues, and GIS
  Systems

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Population Survey Analysts

• THE FIRM
• Long-term projections -- Districtwide and by
  Census-defined planning units
• Site-selection for new schools and possible plans
  to expand current facilities
• Attendance zone planning
• Large maps showing geo-coded students and
  delineating expected subdivisions housing
  starts
• Master plan for facilities based on capacities
  and demographic projections

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Population Survey Analysts

• THE METHODOLOGY
• Use of a leading indicators model for employment
• Use of Census-defined block groups to develop
  projections of housing starts annually over a
  ten-year period
• Cohort-survival procedure to define long-range
  Districtwide projections, based on retention,
  advancement, and attrition, as well as housing
  starts and employment trends.

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Population and Survey AnalystsThe Consultants
Pat Guseman, Ph.D. President
Stacey Tepera, Ph.D.
Kris Pool, J.D.
Chris Russell, M.S.
Justin Silhavy
Ry Blaisdell
Chandra Jackson
Grant Guseman
Garrett Moring
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Primary vs. Secondary Data Sources

• Secondary Data
• State Data Center, Houston-Galveston Area Council
  of Governments (H-GAC), and many others use
  extrapolation methods
• Primary Data
• PASA studies the following
• Leading Indicators of Employment
• Housing Starts and Planning Housing Occupancies
• Ratios of Students per Occupied Home
• Establishment of maturing subdivisions

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Recent Clients (2005-2007)
Allen I.S.D. Anahuac I.S.D. Angleton
I.S.D. Barbers Hill I.S.D. Bryan I.S.D. Cedar
Hill I.S.D. College Station I.S.D. Conroe
I.S.D. Crosby I.S.D. Dallas I.S.D. Dayton
I.S.D. DeSoto I.S.D. Duncanville I.S.D. Elgin
I.S.D.
Frisco I.S.D. Goose Creek C.I.S.D. Hays
C.I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Katy I.S.D. Klein
I.S.D. La Porte I.S.D. Lake Travis I.S.D. Lamar
C.I.S.D. Laredo I.S.D. Lewisville I.S.D. Lovejoy
I.S.D.
Manor I.S.D. Mansfield I.S.D. Montgomery
I.S.D. Mt. Pleasant I.S.D. Navasota
I.S.D. Needville I.S.D. Northwest
I.S.D. Richardson I.S.D. Royal I.S.D. Splendora
I.S.D. Spring I.S.D. Tyler I.S.D. Waller
I.S.D. Wichita Falls I.S.D.
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Population Survey Analysts
Firm Overview Demographic Approach for
H.I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Demographic
Trends Employment Trends (Leading
Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios Students
per Household per Subdivision Current Student
Population Characteristics Projected Student
Enrollment
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Section A Assess Current Student Population

• Generate ArcGIS Map of the District
• Geo-Code Every Student
• Analyze Student Population Characteristics by
• Planning Unit (ethnicity, econ. disadvantaged)
• Analyze Recent Changes in Student Population
• by Planning Unit (Regeneration, etc.)

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Section B Project Future Student Enrollment

• Prepare Projections of New Housing per Year
• per Subdivision
• Calculate the Ratio of Students per Household
• for each Subdivision
• Generate Projections of Student Population
• by Planning Unit for Ten Year Projection Period

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Section C Long Range Planning

• Relate Student Projections to Current Facility
• Capacities
• Develop Long-Range Plan for the Siting and
• Timing of New Facilities
• Options for New Attendance Zones
• Real-Time Planning with Committees
• Prepare Comprehensive Report and Present
• Findings to School Board