Chesapeake Bay Program Model Update

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Chesapeake Bay ProgramModel Update

• Rich Batiuk
• Associate Director for Science
• U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program

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Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling But Were Afraid
to Ask a Modeler
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Role of Models
Clarity
What is the concentration? What are the filtering
rates? Where are the streams?
Research
Monitoring
Modeling
What is the environmental effect of any
particular management scheme?
How do we balance many different interests?
Management
Power
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CBP Modeling Structure
Regional Acid Deposition Model
Watershed Model
Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package
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Purpose of Watershed Model

• Results help direct tributary strategy
  development
• Whats the impact of BMP implementation on
  Nitrogen/Phosphorus/Sediment loads?
• What yields the biggest bang and the biggest bang
  for the buck?
• Load allocations
• Equitably account for all load sources.
• Measure of cap maintenance

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Purpose of Watershed Model

• Provide loads to the Estuarine Model
• Whats the impact of BMP implementation on living
  resources ? water quality?
• What yields the biggest bang and the biggest bang
  for the buck?
• Remove impairments by 2010

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Watershed Model Inputs

• Nutrient Applications to Agricultural Land
• Landuses
• Non-Point Source BMP Implementation
• Point Sources
• Septic Loads
• Atmospheric Deposition

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Watershed Model Inputs

• Nutrient Applications to Agricultural Land
• Landuses
• Non-Point Source BMP Implementation
• Point Sources
• Septic Loads
• Atmospheric Deposition

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Watershed Model Simulation
Input Data
River Simulation
Opportunities for BMPs
Land Simulation
Output
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Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
Agricultural BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Conservation Tillage Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Riparian Forest Buffers (Agriculture) Landuse Conversion Efficiency 25-85 depending on hydrogeomorphic region 50-75 depending on hydrogeomorphic region 50-75 depending on hydrogeomorphic region
Riparian Grass Buffers (Agriculture) Landuse Conversion Efficiency 17-58depending on hydrogeomorphic region 50-75depending on hydrogeomorphic region 50-75depending on hydrogeomorphic region
Wetland Restoration (Agriculture) Currently Solely Landuse Conversion Same as riparian forest buffers Same as riparian forest buffers Same as riparian forest buffers
Land Retirement (Agriculture) Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Tree Planting (Row Crop) Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Nutrient Management Plan Implementation (Crop) Built into Simulation Under Review Under Review N/A
Conservation Plans (Excluding Conservation-Tillage and Nutrient Management) Total OR Reported by the Following Landuses        
Conservation Plans on Conventional-Till Efficiency 8 15 25
Conservation Plans on Conservation-Till Efficiency 3 5 8
Conservation Plans on Hay Efficiency 3 5 8
Conservation Plans on Pasture Efficiency 5 10 14
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Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
Agricultural BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Cover Crops
Cover Crops on Conventional-Till Efficiency 30-45 depending on planting date 7-15 depending on planting date 10-20 depending on planting date
Cover Crops on Conservation-Till   Efficiency 30-45 depending on planting date 0 0
Commodity Cereal Cover Crops Efficiency 17-25 depending on planting date 0 0
Animal Waste Management Systems
Livestock Systems Designate types of systems with associations to the number of Animal Units and types of animals each system is handling Efficiency 75 75 N/A
Poultry Systems Designate types of systems with associations to the number of Animal Units and types of animals each system is handling Efficiency 20 20 N/A
Barnyard Runoff Control / Loafing Lot Management - Designate types of runoff controls with associations to the number of Animal Units and types of animals Efficiency 20 (10 Supplemental) 20 (10 Supplemental) 40
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Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
Agricultural BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Alternative Uses of Manure / Manure Transport Built into Preprocessor Reduction in nutrient mass applied to cropland Reduction in nutrient mass applied to cropland N/A
Off-stream Watering with Stream Fencing (Pasture) Efficiency 60 60 75
Off-stream Watering without Fencing (Pasture) Efficiency 30 30 38
Off-stream Watering with Stream Fencing and Rotational Grazing (Pasture) Efficiency 20 20 40
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Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
Urban and Mixed Open BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Stormwater Management Reported by the Following Categories                                
Wet Ponds and Wetlands Efficiency 30 50 80
Dry Detention Ponds and Hydrodynamic Structures Efficiency 5 10 10
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Efficiency 30 20 60
Infiltration Practices Efficiency 50 70 90
Filtering Practices Efficiency 40 60 85
Roadway Systems TBD Under Review Under Review Under Review
Impervious Surface Reduction / Non-Structural Practices Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Street Sweeping and Catch Basin Inserts TBD Under Review Under Review Under Review
Stream Restoration Load Reduction 0.02 lbs/ft 0.0035 lbs/ft 2.55 lbs/ft
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Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
Urban and Mixed Open BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Erosion and Sediment Control Efficiency 33 50 50
Nutrient Management (Urban) Efficiency 17 22 N/A
Forest Conservation (Urban) Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Riparian Forest Buffers (Urban) Landuse Conversion Efficiency 25 50 50
Riparian Grass Buffers (Urban) Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Tree Planting (Urban) Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Abandoned Mine Reclamation Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Riparian Forest Buffers / Tree Planting (Mixed Open) Landuse Conversion N/A N/A N/A
Nutrient Management (Mixed Open) Efficiency 17 22 N/A
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Watershed Model Nonpoint Source BMPs
Resource BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Forest Harvesting Practices Efficiency 50 50 50
Structural Tidal Shoreline Erosion Control Water Quality Model N/A N/A N/A
Non-Structural Tidal Shoreline Erosion Control Water Quality Model N/A N/A N/A

Septic BMPs How Credited TN Efficiency TP Efficiency SED Efficiency
Septic Connections/Hookups Removal of Systems N/A N/A N/A
Septic Denitrification Efficiency 50 N/A N/A
Septic Pumping Efficiency 5 N/A N/A
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NPS BMPs Efforts Not Currently Credited in the
ModelBut on the List

• Animal Feed Additives
• Yield Reserve
• Manure Additives
• Horse Pasture Management
• Carbon Sequesteration
• Mortality Composters
• Ammonia Emissions Controls in Animal Agriculture
• Voluntary Air Emission Controls within the
  Jurisdicitons (Utility, Industrial and Mobile)
• Street Sweeping
• Alternative Uses of Manure
• Alternative Cropping Systems/Ag Operations
• SAV Planting/Restoration Oyster Reef Restoration

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Adding to the ApprovedBMP List

• Review/approval through the Bay Programs
  Tributary Strategy Workgroup
• BMP definition
• Recommended efficiency with technical literature
  documentation
• How the BMP will be handled by the watershed
  model
• How the BMP will be tracked (units, acres, etc.)

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Opportunities for BMPs

• BMPs that revise inputs
• Alternative uses of manure
• Nutrient applications to cropland
• BMPs involving landuse conversions
• BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
  efficiencies
• BMPs with both landuse conversions and reduction
  efficiencies

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Manure Applications to Cropland
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Alternative Uses of Manure

• Alternative uses of manure encompasses removing
  from the Chesapeake Bay watershed nutrients
  available for crop applications.
• Jurisdictions need to track where the nutrients
  are removed from, how much, and manure/litter
  nutrient content.

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Opportunities for BMPs

• BMPs that revise inputs
• Alternative uses of manure
• Nutrient applications to cropland
• BMPs involving landuse conversions
• BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
  efficiencies
• BMPs with both landuse conversions and reduction
  efficiencies

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Nutrient Applications to Cropland

• BMP implementation levels tracked by state
  agencies and submitted to CBPO.
• Nutrient Management Plan Implementation is a
  separate module in the Watershed Model where
  crops receive only 130 of need/uptake for both
  nitrogen and phosphorus.
• Yellow areas represent windows of opportunity
  for traditional or tracked practices.

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Nutrient Management Plan Implementation

• Watershed Model accounts for both N- and P-based
  nutrient management.
• Fertilizer application data from state
  agricultural agencies.

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Nutrient Management Plan Implementation
Watershed Model accounts for both N- and P-based
nutrient management.
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Opportunities for BMPs

• BMPs that revise inputs
• Alternative uses of manure
• Nutrient applications to cropland
• BMPs involving landuse conversions
• BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
  efficiencies
• BMPs with both landuse conversions and reduction
  efficiencies

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• Light orange generally represents agricultural
  land in 1990 EPA EMAP / LANSAT-derived imagery.
• Source of agricultural land categories and area
  in the model is U.S. Department of Agriculture
  Census of Agriculture - Published
  1982/1987/1992/1997.
• County Census information is distributed to model
  segments.
• Agricultural land area projections directed by
  states.
• In 2001, agricultural land covered about 9.4
  million acres or 23 of the total Bay watershed
  area.
• The watershed model estimates that agriculture
  accounts for 40 of the TN load, 47 of the TP
  load, and 62 of the land-based sediment load to
  the Bay in 2001.

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Agricultural BMPs Involving Landuse Conversions

• BMP implementation levels tracked by state
  agencies and submitted to CBPO.
• Load reductions attributed to movement to a
  lower-exporting landuse.
• Yellow areas represent windows of opportunity
  for traditional or tracked practices.

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Opportunities for BMPs

• BMPs that revise inputs
• Alternative uses of manure
• Nutrient applications to cropland
• BMPs involving landuse conversions
• BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
  efficiencies
• BMPs with both landuse conversions and reduction
  efficiencies

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Agricultural BMPs with Reduction Efficiencies

• BMP implementation levels tracked by state
  agencies and submitted to CBPO.
• BMP efficiencies for removing N, P, and SED are
  collaboration of TSWG participants after review
  of literature or agency/extension service
  recommendations.
• Yellow areas represent windows of opportunity
  for traditional or tracked practices.

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BMP Implementation

• How Efficiency BMPs Are Credited In The Model
• Reduction acres treated by BMP BMP
  efficiency
•   total segment acres
• By Landuse and Model Segment
•  

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BMP Implementation

• How Efficiency BMPs Are Credited In The Model
• BMPs that cannot be applied to same landuse
• Mutually exclusive Additive in nutrient
  reduction capabilities
• i.e., streambank protection with and without
  protection
• Several BMPs on same landuse ? Consecutive
• One BMP reduces the nutrients available for
  subsequent BMPs ? Multiplicative in nutrient
  reduction
• i.e., forest buffers downhill from cover crops

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Opportunities for BMPs

• BMPs that revise inputs
• Alternative uses of manure
• Nutrient applications to cropland
• BMPs involving landuse conversions
• BMPs with nutrient and sediment reduction
  efficiencies
• BMPs with both landuse conversions and reduction
  efficiencies

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BMPs with Landuse Conversions and Reduction
Efficiencies

• Riparian buffer efficiencies are being revised so
  that they will vary according to hydro-geomorphic
  region.
• Yellow areas represent windows of opportunity
  and assume 100-ft. buffer widths on all
  un-buffered stream-miles associated with
  agricultural land.

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Model BMP Simulation
Input Data
River Simulation
Opportunities for BMPs
Land Simulation
Output
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Chesapeake Bay Program

• Phase 4.3
• Watershed Model
• Simulation

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Watershed Model

• 64,000 square miles
• 9 Landuses
• 94 Segments
• 133 State-segment
• 464 County-segments
• 9 Major Tributaries
• 20 State-Basins
• 31 Tributary Strategy Basins

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Lumped Parameter Physically-Based Model
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Loading Sources in Watershed Model
Pasture
Hay
Conservation Till
Conventional Till
Manure
RIVER REACH
Impervious Urban
Pervious Urban
Forest
Atmospheric Deposition
Point Source
Septic
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Land Simulation 1 Acre
Water Simulation - Physically Based Precipitation
(time series) Percolation - f(soil properties,
slope, temp) Evapotranspiration - f(time series,
land properties) Runoff - f(soil properties,
slope, temp)
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Nutrient and Sediment Simulation
Meteorology
Precipitation
Land Morphology
Runoff and Groundwater
Nitrogen Cycle
Sediment Export
Phosphorus Cycle
Nutrient Inputs
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Nutrient Simulation
Nitrogen Cycle
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Watershed Model Forest Nitrogen Cycle
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Agriculture Nutrient Balance
Atmospheric Deposition, Manure, Chemical
Fertilizer
Denitrification Volatilization
Uptake by Crops
Export to Streams
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Forest Nutrient Balance
Denitrification Volatilization
Atmospheric Deposition
Export to Streams
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Urban Nutrient Balance
Denitrification Volatilization
Atmospheric Deposition, Other sources
Uptake by grasses
Export to Streams
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Land-Water Connection
X 3000 acres
Forest
X 400 acres
X 100 acres
Pervious Urban
Impervious Urban
X 200 acres
X 300 acres
X 900 acres
X 1500 acres
Conventional Till
Conservation Till
Hay
Pasture
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Land-Water Connection
Deposition, Point Source, Septic
X 3000 acres
Forest
X 400 acres
X 100 acres
Pervious Urban
Impervious Urban
X 200 acres
X 300 acres
X 900 acres
X 1500 acres
Conventional Till
Conservation Till
Hay
Pasture
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Water Simulation - Physically Based
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River Simulation - Nitrogen
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Two Points of Calibration
Rain
Land Surface
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Chesapeake Bay Program

• Atmospheric Deposition Model
• And Impacts of Deposition on Loads

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Atmospheric Deposition Model
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Atmospheric Deposition Model

• Deposition to the watershed is calculated from
  monitoring data NADP nutrient concentrations /
  precipitation.
• The Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) changes
  deposition to the watershed based on changes in
  emissions throughout the airshed from utility,
  mobile, and industrial sources.

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Nitrogen Deposition Versus Delivered Load
Atmospheric Inputs Of the total NOx deposition
to the Chesapeake Bay watershed land area, about
50 originates from emissions in Bay-watershed
states__________________ PA 17, VA 10, MD
9, WV 7, NY 5, DE 1 OH, NC, NY, KY,
IN, TN, MI 27 Other States in 37-State Area
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Delivered Loads From All Sources Of the total
nitrogen load delivered to the Chesapeake Bay
watershed, about 32 is attributable to
atmospheric deposition, based on the proportion
of anthropogenic inputs.
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Nitrogen Deposition Versus Delivered Load
For all air scenarios, landuses, fertilizer
applications, point sources, septic, and BMP
implementation are held constant at 2000 levels -
Only atmospheric deposition varies
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Model BMP Simulation
Input Data
River Simulation
Opportunities for BMPs
Land Simulation
Output
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1985 Versus 2001 and Cap Load Allocations

• Nutrient and Sediment Loads Delivered to the
  Chesapeake Bay
• By Major Tributary

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Nitrogen Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay
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Phosphorus Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay
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Land-Based Sediment Loads Delivered to the
Chesapeake Bay
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Phase 5 Calibration

• Phase 4.3 26 calibration stations
• Phase 5.0 236 hydrology and 100 water quality
  calibration stations

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Old vs. New Segments
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Phase 5 Improvements

• Segmentation
• Calibration
• Land cover/land use (2000, year by year)
• Rainfall
• Atmospheric Deposition
• Urban
• BMPs (seasonality, extreme weather events, design
  life considerations)
• Lots moreso stay tuned!

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Send Donuts to Rich Batiuk U.S. EPA Chesapeake
Bay Program Office 410-267-5731 batiuk.richard_at_epa
.gov www.chesapeakebay.net