Update on Chesapeake Bay Model Upgrade Projects

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• Update on Chesapeake Bay Model Upgrade Projects

Briefing to Potomac River Integrated Monitoring
Stakeholders March 20, 2006 Presented by Steve
Bieber Metropolitan Washington Council of
Governments
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Project Description

• Potomac Upgrade
• Better spatial scale to simulate water quality
  responses to management efforts at a local scale.
• Better simulation of algal species and their
  impacts on water quality.
• Sediment and pH-alkalinity dynamics critical to
  the Potomac and Anacostia will be modeled.

• Chesapeake Bay Upgrade
• Sediment types and physical processes affecting
  sediment loads will be incorporated.
• Water quality responses to sediment control
  actions will be more accurately reflected.
• Improved sediment controls may reduce the need
  for WWTP upgrades.

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Water Quality Issues Unique to Potomac

• Large pool of particulate inorganic phosphorus
  (PIP) that may not become available for algal
  growth
• Large blooms of Microcystis (blue-green algae)
• Algal growth more limited by phosphorus than by
  nitrogen, especially in tidal fresh portion
• Potential for nitrogen fixation
• DC waters listed as impaired due to high pH
• pH-Alkalinity influence on sediment phosphorus
  flux

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Project Partners

• Blue Plains Users COG
• U.S. EPA
• U.S. Army COE
• State of Maryland
• District of Columbia
• State of Virginia

• ICPRB
• Univ. of Maryland
• VIMS
• LimnoTech
• Hydroqual
• Smithsonian ERC
• USGS
• Occoquan WML

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Benefits of Upgrade to Potomac Model

• Scientific
• Better understanding of load-response
  relationships in Potomac River and Estuary
• More accurate representation of nutrient cycling,
  transport and delivery to the main Bay
• Design tool for fine scale monitoring programs in
  nearshore areas and local embayments
• Management
• Explicit representation of Potomac water quality
  issues
• Improved capability for load allocations to
  sources within the tidal fresh Potomac
• Improved capability for investigating trade-offs
  among nitrogen, phosphorus and solids loads

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Status

• Commencement of the project outlined in the Corps
  PMP was April 2004.
• Scheduled completion is April 2007.
• We are 22 months into a planned 36 month project.
• Congress was good to us this year. Planned
  commitments from DC and EPA will fulfill major
  project goals.

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Estuarine Phosphorus Model

• Simulate the relationship between phosphorus
  loading and production and biomass of living
  resources in the Potomac River Estuary.
• This is key to predicting the frequency and
  severity of harmful algae blooms.
• One year of really exciting field work has been
  completed.
• A new estuarine phosphorus model has been
  proposed.
• A second year of process-oriented field work is
  planned.

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pH - Alkalinity

• This task involves developing a mathematical
  modeling framework that relates pH to nutrient
  loading, primary production, and other factors.
• This relates directly to the investigation of
  harmful algae blooms in the Potomac.
• The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for
  violating the pH water quality criteria.
• Field investigation of pH effects on sediment
  phosphorus release commenced April 2004.
  Completion summer 2005.
• No modeling activity has commenced due to lack of
  funding.
• Funding by DCDHMH is in progress. Two funding
  increments.
• Delivery date should be pushed back to April 2008

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Erosion Rate Measures

• This task involves the measurement and analysis
  of sediment erosion rates in the Potomac and
  upper Chesapeake Bay.
• Two years field work completed by VIMS, Horn
  Point, ERDC mostly in the Potomac.
• Third-year effort is devoted to data analysis.

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Light Attenuation

• This task involves fundamental measures of the
  effects of suspended solids on light attenuation.
  
• Two years field work completed by Smithsonian.
• Chuck Gallegos is working on a FORTRAN code to
  complete this project.

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Particle Settling Velocity

• The goal of this phase of the project is to
  produce statistically sound relationships that
  relate concentration and sinking of mineral
  solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and regional
  variations in plankton community structure and
  dynamics.
• Analysis of field data has been completed.
• Three protocol lab experiments have been
  completed. One more in progress now.
• Hope for delivery of an algorithm in an April-May
  time frame.

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CE-QUAL-ICM

• The model is up and running for 1994-1999.
• Substantial effort has been devoted to data
  acquisition and processing.
• Reformulation and/or recalibration is required to
  bring DO into calibration
• Scheduled completion 50. Actual 50.

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Phase V Watershed Model

• We have 1994-1999 flows mapped to new grid. Used
  to drive CH3D
• We lack Phase V loads for WQM.
• We lack Phase V flow and loads for 2000

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Other Activities

• Anacostia Monitoring Three-year project
  proceeding as planned.
• Fall-line monitoring Ongoing program.
• Surface Waves Basic wave model is complete.
  Results have been passed to VIMS for insertion
  into boundary layer model.

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Other Activities (Contd)

• Bank Loads Spatially detailed estimates of
  shoreline erosion are being created for the upper
  bay and Potomac.
• Loads for the Maryland portion of the bay,
  including Potomac north shore, are being
  evaluated by Jeff Halka of MGS.
• Loads for the Virginia portion of the bay,
  including Potomac south shore, are from existing
  reports.

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Other Activities (Contd)

• Anacostia Stream Bank Erosion better estimates
  of sediment inputs from streams. Report is
  completed.
• Boundary layer dynamics - The boundary layer
  model is almost completed. Incorporates
  currents from CH3D and waves from wave model.
• Algal Speciation No activity and no funding
  identified.

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Summary

• Progress for the core of this project, suspended
  solids, is on schedule and proceeding well.
• Peripheral efforts are behind (pH) or unfunded
  (algal species modeling).

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Summary

• Funding to project completion has been
  identified.
• The next year is crunch time.
• More detailed info available at
  http//www.chesapeakebay.net