Kein Folientitel

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ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport
and TEN Policies Roberta Capello
Seminario ESPON 15 gennaio 2004 Roma,Università
di Tor Vergata
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Aims of the project

• to provide a cost assessment of future efficiency
  and cohesion ICTs policies, through the
  construction of policy scenarios and the
  measurement of the impact of efficiency and
  cohesion policies on regional growth and
  disparities.
• to detect different regional responses to ICTs
  policies, by highlighting different behavioural
  attitudes and reacting capacities of regions in
  front of alternative ICTs policy scenarios.

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Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies

• Available results
• maps on
• accessibility absolute growth rate
• Internet absolute growth rate
• pc GDP average annual growth rate
• (at 2020 in the three scenarios)
• cohesion indicators
• Lorenz curves
• Gini coefficients
• maps on differences in pc GDP average annual
  growth
• typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact

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STIMA model structure
Change of ICTs investments
Change of ICTs endowment
Quasiproduction function
Change of GDP per capita
Change of absolute GDP
Change of virtual accessibility
Change in regional disparities
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Data

• Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial
  data on ICTs
• at Nuts 3 no availability
• at Nuts 2 EOS Gallup Survey 1999
• survey conducted in households in the 15
  Countries of the European Union
• data collected through face-to-face interviews
• by means of a quantitative questionnaire
• on a representative sample in each Member State

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EOS Gallup sample

• Country Sampling Plan Real Sample
  Nuts level used for sampling
• Belgique 2000 1961 NUTS 1
• Danmark 2000 2060 NUTS 3
• Deutschland 5000 5139 NUTS 1
• Ellada 2000 2000 NUTS 2
• España 5000 5000 NUTS 2
• France 5000 5301 NUTS 1
• Ireland 1400 1397 NUTS 3
• Italia 5000 5134 NUTS 1
• Luxembourg 1000 1009 NUTS 1
• Nederland 2000 2037 NUTS 1
• Österreich 2000 2000 NUTS 1
• Portugal 2000 2138 NUTS 2
• Finland 2000 2002 NUTS 2
• Sverige 2000 1951 NUTS 2
• United Kingdom 5150 5211 NUTS 1
• Total 43550 44340

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Scenario Hypotheses

• Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional
  distribution of EU ICTs investments
• among regions
• lagging vs advanced
• among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG
  Information society)
• accessibility
• internet connections
• high-tech employment

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Distribution of ICTs investments according to
different ICTs policy scenarios
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Forecasting methodology

• 2 of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU
  member states
• estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in
  accessibility, internet connections and high-tech
  employment
• forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in
  20 years
• cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini
  coefficient)

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Scenario A pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario B pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario C pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Cohesion indicators
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Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact
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Further Research

• Model refinement of STIMA according to data
  availability
• Model integration of SASI and STIMA
• Qualitative analysis of specific policies like
  deregulation