The Third Wave

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The Third Wave

• Paul Bacon
• SILS, Waseda University

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Three Waves of Democracy

• In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington
  argues that there have been three waves of
  democratization in modern history.

Samuel P. Huntington
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Huntingtons Definition of Democracy

• Huntington offers two definitions of democracy
  that apply to different periods of time.
• Definition 1
• -Applies to 19th Century.
• 50 of adult males can vote.
• There is an executive that either maintains
  majority support in an elected parliament, or is
  chosen in periodic popular elections.

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Huntingtons Definition of Democracy

• Definition 2
• - Applies to 20th Century.
• Virtually all adults can vote.
• Leaders are selected through fair, honest and
  periodic elections.

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The Three Waves When?
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The First Wave Why?

• Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white
  settler countries. The causes are
• Economic Factors
• First countries to experience economic
  development, industrialization and urbanization.
• Emergence of middle class.
• Decrease in economic inequality.

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The First Wave Why?

• Historical events and intellectual developments
• French Revolution.
• American Revolution.
• John Locke.
• Montesquieu.
• John Stuart Mill.

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The First Wave Why?

• Religious Factors
• Over 75 of the countries that democratized in
  the first wave had majority Protestant
  populations.
• World War One
• Democratic countries defeated two large
  authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and
  Ottoman Empires.
• This produced snowballing, or a demonstration
  effect, that encouraged the development of
  democracy.

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The Second Wave Why?

• The second wave is largely related to WW2.
• Imposition of Democracy.
• Allied powers imposed democracy on certain
  defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany.
• Snowballing (demonstration) effect.
• Some countries independently chose to be
  democratic.

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The Second Wave Why?

• Decolonization.
• Countries that had a number of colonies (e.g.
  Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were
  severely weakened after WW2.
• The United States pressured these countries to
  give up their colonies.
• Many former colonies became independent and
  democratic.

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The Third Wave Why?

• Some 30 countries became democratic.
• Legitimacy.
• Democratic ideas became widely accepted.
• Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic
  problems as efficiently as democratic countries.
• Economic Growth.
• Higher standards of living and education
  contributed to the expansion of the urban middle
  class.

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The Third Wave Why?

• Change in the Catholic church.
• The Catholic church, which used to be a supporter
  of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine
  and practice and supported democracy.
• Foreign Policy.
• Expansion of the EU.
• Promotion of democracy and human rights by the
  United States.
• Fall of the Soviet Union.

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The Third Wave Why?

• Snowball (or demonstration effect).
• Early third wave transitions received great media
  attention, which later stimulated transitions in
  other countries.

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Democratic Transition

• Democratic transition requires three components.
• The end of an authoritarian regime.
• The installation of a new democratic regime
  (through elections).
• The consolidation of this democratic regime.

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Democratic Transition A/a-d-D

• A/a-d-D
• A stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime.
• D stable, long-lasting democratic regime.
• a unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime.
• d unstable, short-lived democratic regime.

Stable Authoritarianism
Unstable Democracy
Stable Democracy
Unstable Authoritarianism
Time
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Processes of Democratization

• Huntington identifies three different types of
  democratization process.
• Democratic transformation.
• takes place when powerholders take the lead in
  bringing about democracy.
• Democratic replacement.
• takes place when opposition groups take the lead
  in bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian
  regime is overthrown.
• Democratic transplacement.
• takes place when there is joint action by the
  government and opposition groups to promote
  democratization.

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Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

• The following conditions facilitate democratic
  consolidation.
• Previous experience of democracy.
• Relatively high GNP per capita.
• Favorable external environment.
• Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than
  later, stage in the third wave.
• Democratization via transplacement, rather than
  transformation or replacement.
• The following slides discuss each of these
  conditions more in detail.

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1. Previous Democratic Experience

• Huntington argues that
• Some experience of democracy is better than none.
  
• Longer experience of democracy is better than
  shorter experience.
• The more recent the democratic experience, the
  better.

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Chart Years of Democratic Experience
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2. Level of Economic Development

• The higher level of economic development, the
  greater the likelihood of stable democracy.
• Economically developed countries have
• More industrialized economies.
• More modern economies.
• More complex societies.
• Better educated populations.
• These factors all help consolidate democracy.

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Chart Democracy and GNP per capita
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3. The External Environment

• A foreign country can have a positive influence
  on democratic consolidation, if the relevant
  foreign government
• is itself democratic.
• promotes democracy in other countries.
• has close relations with the third wave country
  in question.
• is able to exercise influence in the third wave
  country in question.

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Chart External Environment and Democracy
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4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition

• Early Indigenous
• Earlier democratizations are more likely to be
  the result of indigenous causes, rather than a
  snowball effect.
• Indigenous Consolidation
• Democratic transitions caused by indigenous
  factors are more likely to lead to consolidated
  democracies.
• Therefore, Early Consolidation
• The earlier a country democratizes within the
  third wave, the more likely it is to become a
  consolidated democracy.

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First Dates of Elections and Democracy
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5. Process of Democratic Transition

• Huntington identified three processes of
  democratic transition transformation,
  replacement and transplacement.
• Huntington argues
• There is more chance of a successful democratic
  consolidation if elites from the previous
  non-democratic regime are satisfied.
• There is less chance of democratic consolidation
  if the transition involved violence.
• If the above statements are true, it follows that
  transplacement is most likely to lead to
  consolidated democracy.

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Chart Transition Process and Democracy
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Chart Overall Prospects for Democracy
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Chart Freedom Classification by Freedom House
(2003)
http//www.freedomhouse.org
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Further Democratization?

• Most currently authoritarian governments do not
  have any previous democratic experience.
• Huntington is not sure whether the third wave
  will continue or not.
• Huntington raises the possibility that some
  cultures may not be amenable to democracy. He
  suggests two versions of this cultural obstacle
  argument.

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Cultural Obstacles to Democracy?

• The two versions of the cultural obstacle
  argument.
• Version 1
• Only Western cultures are amenable to democracy.
  Non-western countries are not.
• Version 2
• Not all non-western cultures are amenable to
  democracy. But there are certain cultures which
  are resistant to democratic transition, such as
  Islamic and Confucian culture.

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Democracy as Western Culture

• There is evidence to suggest that the first
  argument is true.
• Modern democracy originated in the West.
• Since the early 19th century, most democratic
  countries have been western countries.
• Outside of the North Atlantic, democratic
  transition has been most likely in
• Former British colonies.
• Countries heavily influenced by the United
  States.
• Former colonies of Spain and Portugal in Latin
  America.

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Democracy as Western Culture

• In 1973, at the lowest point in the second
  reverse wave, there were only 29 democracies.
  Among them
• 20 were west European or European settler
  countries or Latin American countries.
• 8 were former British colonies.
• Japan.
• Of the 30 third wave countries, 23 were western
  countries, or countries where there had been
  substantial western influence.

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End of Lecture.

• Thank you for your attention.