Human causes of global change

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David Lodge U Notre Dame
Human causes of global change Land
use Eutrophication UV-B Fisheries Climate Acidi
fication Toxins Alien species
Damming Irrigation
Aquatic Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function
Ecosystem Characteristics Watershed area, stream
order Hydrograph Nutrients Temperature pH Hab
itat structure Lake area Lake-stream
connections Dissolved Organic Carbon
(DOC) Floodplain-river connections
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Impact of eutrophication and food web changes
Phosphorus
Collaborators Steve Carpenter, Jim Kitchell,
Mike Pace, Yvonne Vadeboncoeur, et al.
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Ecology of
macrophytes Community and ecosystem impacts of
herbivory Macrophyte role in providing refuge
for Daphnia Chemically-mediated interactions
Collaborators Mark Hay, Romi Burks, Greg Cronin
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Landscape determinants of DOC, impacts on UV, and
climate change
Log DOC (mg C L-1)
Collaborators Scott Bridgham, Carol Johnston,
Patricia Maurice, Gary Lamberti, et al.
(Xenopoulos, Lodge, et al. in press)
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Forecasting loss of fish species as climate
change reduces river discharge
Number of Fish species

1995
Collaborators Joe Alcamo and many other
Millennium Assessment folks
2070
Change in annual water availability, 1995-2070
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Expand to include China forecasts of the impact
on biodiversity of global changes in water
availability
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Environmental guidance for the development of
green chemicals

• Ionic liquids discovered about 10 years ago
• Totally nonvolatile
• Dissolve both polar and nonpolar species
• Environmental impact?

Collaborators Gary Lamberti, UND chemical
engineers (Joan Brennecke, et al)
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Species Introductions Unintended
Consequences
Collaborators Cindy Kolar, Bill Perry, Jeff
Feder, Gary Lamberti, Kristin Shrader- Frechette,
et al.
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Process of Species Invasion
(From Kolar Lodge 2001)
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Pathways
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Propagule Pressure, Allee Effects, and the risk
of establishment
Collaborator Greg Dwyer
(from Drake in press at Risk Analysis)
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Predictions screening Ponto-Caspian fishes
Sea of Azov
Black Sea
Caspian Sea
Laurentian Great Lakes
Mediterranean Sea
(from Kolar Lodge, 2002, Science 2981233-1236 )
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Extend to China forecasting ecological and
economic impact of exchange of alien species
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Ecological impacts of aliens e.g., Crayfishes
in the Food Web
Fishes
Crayfishes
OR
OP OV
Other Inverts.
Snails
Attached Algae
Macrophytes
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(No Transcript)
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Non-target effects of biological control of
schistosomiasis
Collaborators Armand Kuris, Sam Loker, Scott
Cooper
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Collaborate with Chinese ecologists forecast
impact of Asian carps in NA Great Lakes
Both species native to China, escaped from US
aquaculture, and nearing Great Lakes via
Mississippi River
Grows to 50 lbs
Grows to 100 lbs
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Ecological forecasting and risk analysis of
nonindigenous species strategic optimization
using a bioeconomic approach
Biologists David M. Lodge, P.I., U. Notre
Dame Brian Leung, Dept. of Biol. Sci., U. Notre
Dame Gary Lamberti, U. Notre Dame Hugh MacIsaac,
U. Windsor Mathematician Mark Lewis, U.
Alberta Economists Jason F. Shogren, U.
Wyoming David Finoff, U. Central Florida
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Conceptual Approach
Ecology
Economics
Objective
Species in Pathway
Transport / Introductions
Pathway quantification
Prevention
Costs
Transported, Released alive
Statistical Pop. models
Control
Maximize Societal Welfare
Value Added Investment
Population Established
Stats/Dispersal/ pop. models
Spread
Production
Benefits
Statistical models
Non-market Values
Impact
(From Leung, Lodge et al. 2002, Proc. Biological
Sciences)
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Policy of invasive species
Collaborators Lots of colleagues in DOI, USDA,
Commerce, and industry
www.invasivespecies.gov
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Religious and cultural influences on ecology and
environmentalism

• Special issue of Worldviews,
• in press
• Book in progress
• (eds Lodge Hamlin)

Collaborators Chris Hamlin, Kristin
Shrader-Frechette, et al.
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Possible collaboration with Chinese ecologists

• Aquatic-terrestrial linkagesaffects of land use,
  climate, etc on
• biodiversity and ecosystem function
• Comparative importance of herbivory and other
  aquatic food web
• interactions in NA and China
• Ecological impact of alien species
• NA? China, e.g., Procambarus clarkii
• China ? NA, e.g., several carp species
• Forecasting invasibility of NA and China for
  fishes etc from each
• continent
• Combining ecological and economic impact of alien
  species
• Ecology and epidemiology of schistosomiasis

data from Hugueny (1989), Africa