Projections and effects of policies and measures Niklas H

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Projections and effects of policies and
measures Niklas HöhneUNFCCC Secretariat
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Content

• Purpose
• Scenarios
• Aggregate effects of measures
• Methodology
• Reporting

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Purpose of the projections

• Status of reporting in the 2nd NC
• Different level of importance given to
  projections chapter
• Domestic or international purpose?
• Problems encountered
• Comparison of information difficult
• New reporting guidelines
• to give an indication of future trends in GHG
  emissions and removals, given current national
  circumstances and implemented and adopted
  policies and measures, and to give an indication
  of the path of emissions and removals without
  such policies and measures.

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Scenarios

• Status of reporting in the 2nd NC
• 27 Parties provided with measures for CO2
• 19 Parties provided more than one scenario for
  CO2
• 7 Parties provided more than one scenario for
  non-CO2 gases
• Several EIT Parties provided more than one
  scenario in relation to expected economic
  development
• Problems encountered
• Sometimes unclear which measures included in
  which scenarios
• Gases, years and sectors covered
• Inconsistencies between projection and inventory
  data for past years

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Scenarios
Expected effects implemented measures
Emissions
Actual effects of implemented measures
Without measures
Projections
Actual emissions
With measures
With additional measures
Expected effects of additional measures
1995
2000
Year
1990
2005
2010
2015
2020
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Scenarios

• New reporting guidelines
• With measures mandatory Currently implemented
  and adopted measures
• Without measures and with additional measures
  optional
• Relative to unadjusted inventory data
• Gas-by-gas, treating HFCs and PFCs collectively
• For each sector and national total
• Provide international bunker fuels separately
• For 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020

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Aggregate effects of PMs

• Status of reporting in the 2nd NC
• Described by many Parties as the most difficult
  part of the NC
• Problems encountered
• Unclear which measures were included
• Accumulated effects provided

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Aggregate effects of PMs

• New reporting guidelines
• Mandatory Estimated and expected total effect of
  implemented and adopted policies and measures.
  Optional Total expected effect of planned
  policies and measures.
• Consistent with with measures definition
• As GHG emissions avoided or sequestered, by gas
  (on a CO2 equivalent basis) in a given year, not
  cumulative savings
• The difference between a with measures and
  without measures projection. Alternatively,
  individually assessing the effect of each
  significant policy and measure, and aggregating
  the individual effects to arrive at a total.

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Methodology

• Status of reporting in the 2nd NC
• A variety of methods were used
• 14 Parties did not provide information on methods
  in NC
• 2 Parties mentioned explicitly the strengths and
  weaknesses of their approaches
• Problems encountered
• Especially for non-CO2 projections, methods were
  not specified
• If several models were used, unclear which
  assumptions were used from model to model
• Time lag between preparation of projection and
  national communication

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Methodology

• New reporting guidelines
• Parties may use any models and/or approaches
• Allow reader to obtain basic understanding of
  such models and/or approaches
• Summarize the strengths and weaknesses
• Sensitivity of projections to underlying
  assumptions
• Provide table on assumptions

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Reporting

• V. PROJECTIONS AND THE TOTAL EFFECT OF POLICIES
  AND MEASURES
• A. Projections
• Diagrams
• B. Assessment of aggregate effects of policies
  and measures
• C. Methodology
• Table on assumptions