National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Brief

1
National UnifiedOperational Prediction
CapabilityStatus Brief

• NUOPC Tiger Team
• Steven Payne,
• Mark Surmeier, Fred Toepfer
• October 16, 2007

2
Status

• The primary mission of the NUOPC is to enable a
  Tri-Agency global atmospheric ensemble system,
  including the design standards, required research
  and development, operational implementation,
  dissemination and evaluation.
• Decision approved to implement NUOPC Phase I
  (10/9)
• Establish management team and interim committees
• Initiate Coordination meetings
• Common model infrastructure and standards
• Standard transition process
• Unified ensemble operation CONOPS
• Provide detailed impact and cost assessment
• Requires decision on standards, code conversion,
  operations

3
Background

• Oct 05 Tri-Agency established a goal of
  complementary NWP
• Feb 06 Workshop investigated potential for
  increased collaboration
• Recommended review of NUOPC alternatives
• May 06 Tri-Agency memo established TT to analyze
  alternatives for increased collaboration with the
  following goals
• Accelerating improvements in operational
  performance
• Creating opportunities for a more focused
  National research effort
• Leveraging scarce resources
• Aug 06 TT defined the alternatives and developed
  AoA
• Focused on next-generation systems for global
  numerical weather prediction allowing for
  possible later expansion into other areas of
  numerical prediction.
• Jan 07 Tri-agency selected Alternative 2 --
  Coordinated Research Development with
  Coordinated Transition and Operations
• Mar 07 Initiated working groups to define
  Management Plan, Concept of Operations,
  Implementation Plan, ROM Costs for phased
  approach
• Sep 07 Review and approval of NUOPC
  documentation and approach.
• Oct 07 Approval to initiate Phase 1.

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Vision A National Global Modeling System
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NUOPC Vision (2015)

• A National System with a Tri-Agency commitment to
  address common requirements
• Multi-component system with interoperable
  components built upon common standards and a
  framework such as the ESMF
• Managed ensemble diversity
• significantly improve forecast accuracy
• quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty
• Joint ensemble
• to produce most probable forecast e.g.high impact
  weather
• Mission Specific ensemble products
• Drive high-resolution regional/local predictions
• Drive other down stream models
• Establish a national global NWP research agenda
  to accelerate development and transition

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NUOPC DEFINED - 2015

• NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts
  coordinated by a Tri-agency management
  organization leading to a unified global modeling
  system with
• Common infrastructure, coding standards, metrics,
  transition processes to the degree required to
  share technology and eliminate unnecessary
  duplication
• Common development and implementation of ESMF
• Cooperation and coordination at the technology
  level
• Common operational global ensemble and post
  processing by design
• Coordinated research needs representing National
  global modeling research requirements
• Developmental test support and focused research
  seed money to accelerate transition of critical
  technology
• NUOPC is not
• An RD or acquisition program
• A unified management system for operations or
  acquisition
• A unification of agency missions

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National Need for Improved Capability

• Increasing cost of natural disasters
• Population density, location, value of property,
  violence of storms same storm, ten times the
  cost of a few years ago
• Protection of lives and property
• Increasing sensitivity of military operations to
  environmental conditions
• Global communications, precise weaponry,
  political cost of collateral damage
• National defense, Homeland security
• Increasing economic value of weather information
• Transportation, agriculture, energy, business
  disruption
• Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS)
• Increasing cost of mitigation and evacuation
• Cost to evacuate for Hurricane Rita
• Increasing cost of fuel for ships and aircraft
• Increasing public awareness and intolerance for
  failure

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Potential Benefits

• Establish a National System to focus on National
  Needs
• Operations community and Research community
  working toward a common agenda
• Improved ability to compete with other national
  systems (European, Chinese, Japanese, etc.)
• More efficient use of shared resources
• Model developers
• Computing resources
• Model architecture and software configuration
  management personnel
• Fewer personnel to support external development
• A more robust National ensemble forecast program
• Accelerated improvement of a National Weather
  Operational Prediction Capability
• Lives saved by earlier implementation of
  improvements, reduced hurricane warning area,
  fuel saved, reduced damage.
• Improved agency capability to drive downstream
  applications (ocean, aerosol, cloud, etc.) to
  meet unique mission requirements (e.g. five-day
  hurricane track forecast, precise cloud-cover
  prediction)
• Better operational backup through standardization
  and shared products
• Enhanced research coordination
• Ability to entrain national talent with tools to
  quickly move research to operations
• Access to larger national meso-scale development
  pool to address physics problems
• Reduced duplication of RD efforts and better
  utilized research dollars
• RD transition path into each Agencys operation
  with common model architecture
• Answers GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations
  for "more jointness" and less duplication among
  agencies

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How do we build a truly National global numerical
prediction system?

• Provide coordinated requirements list?
• Provide effective transition path for new
  research and development?
• Facilitate agreement on interoperable
  architecture?
• Provide common metrics?
• Provide mechanisms for developmental testing
  using operational system equivalents (DTC?
  Expanded visiting scientist program?)
• Provide fora for focused discussion of GNWP
  research?

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Implementation Strategy

• Establish Management Structure
• Establish Common Model Architecture (CMA) and
  standards
• Initiate Common Support Infrastructure and
  capabilities as appropriate
• Begin necessary Software conversion to CMA
• Identify the common technology requirements
• Define National Research Agenda, Focused Research
  (as appropriate) and Begin deployment of Research
  infrastructure to accelerate transition to
  operations.
• Align transition to operation processes
• NAEFS Prototyping and Deployment
• Evolve to next-generation system Target FOC 2015

Building the Next-Generation Global Modeling
System - Together
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NUOPC cost-benefits

• Acceleration of existing investment
• Accelerates forecast improvement
• Leverages existing investments
• Cost avoidance
• Improved extreme event warning capability
• Hurricane evacuation
• General aviation safety
• Protection of military assets
• Entrainment of national effort
• Increased NASA participation
• FAA/NextGen support to NUOPC
• Single target for ST organizations (NSF, ONR,
  NCAR, etc.)

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NUOPC Implementation Schedule
FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II
Beta Test Phase III
FOC
IOC-2
IOC-1
MGMT REPORTG
MOA
Quarterly Updates to Principals
STAFFING
Full Staff
TT PM, TEMPS
CODE CONV.
INIT.STANDARDS
SOFTWARE CONVERSION
MAINTAIN
OPERATIONS
ENS OPS TEST
NAEFS OPS
COMMS, IA, etc.
CONOPS, Budget
FOC
STANDARDS PARTICIPATION
OUTREACH
Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda
DTC/VTC
DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS
PROGRAM REVIEW MTG
ESG BRIEF
EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP
REVISIT PDD/MOA
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NUOPC Cost Schedule
FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II
Beta Test Phase III
FOC
IOC-1
IOC-2
TOTAL COST/y
1.0M
1.0M
3.1M
4.6M
5.6M
5.9M
6.7M
9.2M
STAFFING COORD.
Full Staff
PM, temps
TT
0.9M
0.9M
1.5M
1.5M
1.5M
1.5M
1.5M
1.5M
CODE CONV.
INIT.STANDARDS
SOFTWARE CONVERSION
MAINTAIN
0.1M
0.1M
1.6M
2.1M
2.1M
0.2M
0.3M
0.3M
OPERATIONS
ENS OPS TEST
NAEFS OPS
COMMS, IA, etc.
CONOPS, Budget
FOC
1.1M
1.3M
1.3M
RSCH COORD.
Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda
DTC/VTC
0.6M
0.6M
2.6M
ESMF SUPPORT
ESMF OWNERSHIP
1.0M
1.0M
1.0M
1.0M
1.0M
FOCUSED RSCH
VSP, Lab External Rsch
2.0M
1.5M
1.0M
2.5M
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Backups
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PM/Interim PM

• The Program Manager (PM) will be recruited
  through one of the following two alternative
  methods
• Intergovernmental Personnel Act (IPA), funding to
  be equally shared by all three agencies
• Existing or new Federal employee designated from
  within one agency, cost shared between agencies
• Qualifications and Characteristics
• Senior Executive Series (SES) level equivalent.
  Aligns with the National perspective/importance
  of NUOPC.
• Program Management expertise with strong general
  knowledge/experience in meteorology and numerical
  weather prediction.
• In-depth understanding of the scientific and
  technical processes necessary for development of
  models
• Knowledge of the Federal Planning, Programming,
  Budgeting and Execution (PPBE) process.
• Tactful leadership PM will be required to
  balance three distinct agency requirements and
  programmatics, and lead the management team
  through a most likely difficult developmental
  period.
• Strong sense of the national imperative for
  NUOPC.
• Capable of effectively representing NUOPC at the
  OMB/OSTP/Congressional level.

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Cost Strategy

• Costs phased to increase affordability
• Joint funding kept to a minimum
• Management
• Common support capability as appropriate e.g.
  ESMF Architecture
• Common research Infrastructure (e.g. VTC, DTC)
• Joint funding increases incrementally as benefits
  accrue
• One-time costs (code conversion and ESMF
  Architecture Implementation) phased over 3 years
  to minimize disruption and negative impacts

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Approve Moving Ahead with NUOPC

• Pro
• Recommended course of action from two years of
  study and workshops
• Phase I carries minimal risk
• Minimal cost to agencies, some disruption
• Initiates Coordination meetings, sets standards
• Less software conversion costs for models under
  development
• Increases Tri-Agency coordination, prepares for
  full collaboration
• Quantifies cost and impact
• Continues momentum of two years of TT effort
• Con
• MOA not in place
• DoD fiscal uncertainty
• Political uncertainty of upcoming elections

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Projected Forecast Improvement Under NUOPC
(Impacts all areas of prediction)
NUOPC
Capability
Status Quo
FY08
10
12
14
16
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Cost Share Proposal

• Shared costs (equal one-third shares to NOAA, AF,
  Navy)
• Management costs
• Joint operating costs
• ESMF, DTC/VTC/VSP, Config Mgmnt, etc.
• Agency-specific costs (borne by each agency
  individually)
• Communications
• Hardware infrastructure
• Information Assurance issues
• Code conversion costs recommend equal thirds
  shares
• Closely tied to common standards true costs
  wont be known until after standards are set in
  FY08-09
• NUOPC PM acts as chief engineer/cost arbitrator,
  recommends equitable cost shares based on cost
  impacts to each agency ESG accepts or modifies
  recommendation
• PM must show that over time he's keeping the
  total cost impact equitable to all sides, and
  minimizing the total cost impact