The 2nd Younger Members Convention

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The 2nd Younger Members Convention
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• 1-2 December 2003
• The Glasgow Moat House

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The 2nd Younger Members Convention
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• Exchanging affluence for influence
• An actuary goes into politics
• Stephen Yeo FIA

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An actuary goes into politics

• Why do it?
• What matters to politicians .
• . and what doesnt?
• What do politicians think of actuaries
• Garbage ingarbage out a tale of National
  Statistics
• 95 is cp
• Recent developments

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An actuary goes into politics

• My actuarial career
• 18 months with a life office, straight from
  school
• 19 years with Clay Partners (now part of Aon)
• 10 years to qualify
• Examiner!
• Not a complete disaster
• Clays sold to Alexanders 1993 worked until 1995

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Exchanging affluence for influence
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(No Transcript)
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Exchanging affluence for influence

• Why do it?
• What next after a break?
• Putting something back
• .or just having fun?

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An actuary goes into politics

• Volunteer initially
• Now permanent role at Central Office
• Working for Pensions and Treasury teams
• No affluence
• Amazing influence

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What do I do?

• Press stories initiation or reaction
• Parliamentary activity
• Speeches
• Industry and decisionmaker contact
• Policy development

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Headlines (at the front of the paper)
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Parliamentary Activity

• Debates / Statements
• Oral Questions
• Written Questions
• Select Committees
• Standing Committees

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What are the characteristics of the work?

• Short deadlines (esp press and parliament)
• Variety
• Accuracy unimportant in the short-term but...
• credibility would suffer from errors
• Close to the heart of the action

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What dont I do?

• A timesheet
• Accept liability
• Travel
• Speak to voters
• Allow my name to appear

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What matters to politicians?

• Winning the next election
• Appearing on TV
• Getting their name in the papers
• especially near the front
• Getting the partys name in the papers
• Government v Opposition

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What do politicians think of actuaries?

• What actuaries failed to tell us in the
  1990s(letter to the FT 25 April 2003)
• signed Howard Flight MP, Shadow Chief Secretary
  to the Treasury
• Letters FIA - a benign influence?

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Garbage ingarbage outA tale of National
Statistics

• MQ5 Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and
  Trusts Investment
• In paper form had a circulation of just 23
• In 2002 the end 1999 assets figure cut by 104 bn
• Press released a week later on the morning of a
  pensions debate
• Largest mistake in world statistical history
• Figures corrected after three months

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Garbage in garbage out

• Patience Wheatcroft in The Times (5 February
  2002)
• David Willetts, the two-brained Conservative
  pensions spokesman was doing some research
• Thanks to the zeal of Mr Willetts, and perhaps
  to the poverty of Conservative Central Office,
  a glaring discrepancy has been uncovered

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More garbage from National Statistics

• Contribution figure did not agree with the value
  of tax relief
• This time we tried to make it easier for them
• Sunday Telegraph article 10 March 2002
• Government hides pension black hole
• Written question answered 16 May 2002
• These figures emphasise that the basic structure
  of pensions in this country is right

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More garbage from National Statistics (continued)

• Another newspaper article 10 June 2002 (in David
  Willetts name)
• Three weeks elapse
• Called to Andrew Smiths office on 1 July
• Front page of three broadsheets plus inside four
  more papers
• Contributions estimate reduced from 86 billion
  to 43 billion after three months

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Pension Statistics Overall Score

• Pension statistics withdrawn twice in 2002
• Minister apologises to the House
• 12 person working party sat for 3 months
• produced 94 page report with 30
  recommendations, and
• The figures are still WRONG!

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95 is Cp

• Title of a book by Terry Arthur FIA
• General rant at all political parties in the
  1970s
• Statistical Cp section
• Fiddling the calculation of RPI
• Plus ça change

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Recent Developments

• Conservative Party pledge to restore the earnings
  link to State Pensions
• Earnings link broken under Margaret Thatcher in
  1981
• Consistently opposed by Labour 1981 1997 but
  not reinstated by them
• Earnings link called for by Unions and Pensioners
  groups for over 20 years
• My policy!

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Leadership election

• In contrast to Mr Duncan Smith, his Michael
  Howards private office has been a model of
  efficiency. Mr Howard's people are adept at
  digging out material that embarrasses the
  government.The Economist 30 October 2003

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Conclusion

• A huge contrast with conventional actuarial work
• Amazing influence
• Minimal reward
• Little public recognition