The 2004 Election

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The 2004 Election
2
And Beyond
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What Happened

• 286 Electoral Votes
• 51 of the popular vote
• 55 of men
• 48 of women
• 44 of Hispanics
• 55 of white women

• 252 Electoral Vote
• 48 of the vote
• 44 of men
• 51 of women
• 53 of Hispanics
• 44 of white women

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Some Key Factors

• Bush got 3.5 more of the popular vote in 2004
• His increase in Hispanics 35 44 a 1 movement
  of the popular vote
• His increase among white women 49-55 a 2.5
  movement
• 17 percent of the vote was 18-29 year olds
• 42 were church goers
• Both percentages are exactly the same as in 2000.
  

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And There is More

• The margin in the Senate is now 55 - 44 -1 In
  favor of Republicans
• The Republicans will have a least 231 seats in
  the House
• The Republicans won every contested Senate race
  except Colorado
• There is no question that the hand we hold
  nationally has been weakened.

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The Rest of the Story

• The News from Inside Some Red States
• Perhaps the most disappointing losses for
  Republicans this year were in Colorado, where
  Gov. Bill Owens will no longer enjoy the benefits
  of a friendly legislature. Democrats have won an
  18-17 majority in the Colorado senate and also
  appear to have captured the Colorado house by a
  narrow margin. A big factor was the huge inflow
  of soft money I mean "independent expenditures"
  and "527s"(such as Colorado Conservation Voters)
  into Democratic efforts in several key
  legislative contests in the state. Wall Street
  Journal - November 3, 2004
• The Montana Senate has been controlled by the
  Republicans since 1995, but that changed Tuesday.
  Though many races around the state were tight,
  the Democrats have won power in the Senate 27 to
  23. "I think it means good things for the state,"
  said Bob Ream, Chairman of the Montana Democratic
  Party. "It will bring back some balance that's
  badly needed." Ravalli Republic (Bitterroot-
  Montana) November 4, 2004

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And There is More

• In many of the red states conservation and
  environmental organizations working through C4s
  and PACs had substantial victories with
  candidates in both political parties
• State Conservation Voter Leagues report increased
  cooperation and among conservation activists and
  their organizations
• Thousands volunteered to help pro-conservation
  candidates
• Dozens of organizations in the states
  participated in list sharing projects that
  generated 1000s of calls to identify
  pro-conservation voters and follow-up mailings

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And the Results Make A Point

• Georgia 8 of 12 Pro Conservation Legislative
  Candidates Won
• Nevada -- 7 out of 7 Legislative Candidates
• New Mexico -- 4 out of 6 Legislative Candidates
• North Carolina Governor and 5 of 5 Legislative
  Candidates
• And finally, in Texas 4 out of 7 Legislative
  Candidates won
• And things went well in many blue states too

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Where do we go from here?
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Some Suggestions

• Focus on defense first, particularly at the
  federal level
• Invest in building capacity in state
  organizations
• Get even more engaged in elections

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A CYCLE OF ACCOUNTABILITY FOR CONSERVATIONISTS
AND POLITICIANS
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Move forward using an integrated two-year
electoral and legislative plan that creates a
cycle of accountability.
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Do A Realistic Lay of the Land

• What is going on here?
• Social political and cultural overview of the
  state
• Public and Private Economy
• Political Environment
• Public Policy Environment
• Environmental Issues
• Environmental Players

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Remember To

• Start where they are
• Not where you are

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Putting together a legislative strategy

• Get together and create a common agenda
• Speak with one voice about priorities

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Three key understandings

• You cant win everything
• Set priorities
• Everything cant be the top priority

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Completing The Circle

• Carry your agenda to the legislature
• Advocate its passage
• Hold them accountable through the score card
• Develop a new electoral strategy

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A CYCLE OF ACCOUNTABILITY FOR CONSERVATIONISTS
AND POLITICIANS