Dallas County Election 2004

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Dallas County Election 2004

• Stonewall Democrats
• November 16, 2004

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Turnout by Election Cycle
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Dallas County Turnout Historical
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Change in Democratic Vote 2000 2004Dallas
County Congressional Districts
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How the Frost/Sessions Race Broughta Democratic
VictoryCraig Watkins, 2002 Lupe Valdez, 2004
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Martin Frost Campaign Raises AllDemocratic Boats
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Turnout Comparisons bySenate District - 2004
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8th Senate District Turnout Variation from
County Turnout
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16th Senate District Turnout Variation from
County Turnout
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23rd Senate District Turnout Variation from
County Turnout

2002
2004
2000
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23rd Senate District TurnoutComparison between
CD32 Precincts Other Precincts
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23rd Senate District / C.D. 32 Pcts Change in
Turnout 2000 to 2004
OTHERS
C.D 32
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Summary

• Overall turnout in Dallas County was considerably
  higher than previous Presidential Elections -
  28,490 more ballots were cast in 2004 than 1992.
• The Martin Frost campaign improved Democratic
  performance in Congressional District 32 by 3 to
  8 depending on race. Lupe Valdez ran 6 ahead
  of DPI in the congressional district.
• Democratic performance in the other congressional
  districts was up by 3 overall from 2002 except
  for Congressional District 30 which remained
  about the same as 2002.
• Overall turnout in Senate District 23 in 2004 as
  a proportion of countywide turnout was only
  slightly better than 2000 but considerably less
  than 2002.
• 23rd Senate District precincts within
  Congressional District 32 had turnouts almost 6
  better than 2000 values while others remained
  about the same.

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Conclusions

• Higher overall turnout seems to help Democrats in
  Dallas County if not nationally.
•  
• The Martin Frost campaign was responsible for the
  overall improvement of the Democratic margin
  countywide. The more aggressive Democratic
  campaigns were able to capitalize on this
  improvement.
•  
• Most Democratic improvement came from outside the
  Democratic base and probably resulted from
  Frosts intensive voter persuasion efforts.
•  
• Democratic efforts in the 23rd Senate District
  were less effective what improvement in turnout
  that occurred did so within the 32nd
  Congressional District only.

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Recommendations

• A comprehensive and adequately funded countywide
  Democratic campaign must be implemented in 2006
  to replicate as far as possible the Frost
  campaign of 2004. 
• Voter turnout efforts in GOTV precincts alone are
  not sufficient a voter persuasion campaign
  targeted outside the Democratic base is a key
  ingredient in a Democratic victory in Dallas
  County. 
• GOTV efforts in the Democratic base should be
  more tightly focused in 2006 and intensively
  targeted to voters with new voting history
  beginning in 2004. Diffuse voter contact
  programs are less than effective. 
• African-Americans on the Democratic ballot may
  improve performance in the 30TH Congressional
  District by 2 or up to 3,000 votes. Hispanic
  participation, though still weak, continues to
  improve and voter turnout programs should be
  focused on reinforcing participation among new
  Hispanic voters.