Market Cycles: Election Years

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Market CyclesElection Years

• Eric Lane
• Associate Manager, Finance Sector

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Disclaimer

• My political philosophy
• political history
• Why none of this matters

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A Brief History of Time

• How HAVE the markets performed during
  Presidential election years?

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SP 500 1/1999 12/2007
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The 4-year Cycle 1950-2004
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2008 A Different Kind of Election

• Now onto the present

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The Iowa Electronic Market
Democrat or Republican
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The Iowa Electronic Market
Democrat Nomination
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Democrat President in 2008?

• Traditional Winners

• Traditional Losers

• Metals
• Trade Regulations
• Alternate Energy and Environmental Cleanup
• Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae
• Homebuilders

• Oil and Gas
• Pharmaceuticals
• Insurance Providers
• Defense

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Big Pharma

• PHLX Drug Index

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Big Oil
PHLX Oil Services Index
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Barack Obama (D)

• Senator from Illinois

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Policy Platform

• Cracking down on mortgage fraud
• Helping homeowners avoid foreclosure
• Middle Class Tax Relief
• "Making Work Pay" credit
• American Opportunity Tax credit
• Retirement Security
• Health Care Reform
• Alternative Energy

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Hillary Clinton (D)

• Senator from New York

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Policy Platform

• Ending the foreclosure crisis
• Stimulus Package
• High-wage job growth
• Health Care Reform
• Leveling the Economic Playing Field
• Strategic Energy Fund
• Special Interest reform
• Health Care
• Trade

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John McCain (R)

• Senator from Arizona

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Policy Platform

• Pro-Growth Tax Policy
• Keep tax rate low
• Make permanent Bush income and investment tax
  cuts
• Cut the corporate tax rate
• Ban Internet and cell phone taxes
• Social Security and Medicare
• Trade
• Health Care
• Market-based energy reform

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The Best Option?

• Gridlock.