Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

1
Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

• Jerry Bunin
• Government Affairs Director
• Home Builders Association of the Central Coast
• [phone]/[phone]
• Jbunin_at_hbacc.org
• June 1, 2006

2
The Home Builders Association

• Represents
• 45 builders
• 170 more associate members
• 30,000 total employees mostly in SLO SB
  counties
• We probably built your house
• This is our home. We care about it just like you
• Quality of life is part of what we sell
• Bad business to harm it

3
We believe

• Safe, decent shelter is a fundamental right
• Meeting that need is a noble business
• Building housing builds communities
• You need housing to have people
• You need people to have an economy

4
My job

• If you like housing, Im a liaison
• If you like no growth, Im a dirty lobbyist
• In truth, Im a talker
• With government, the media and the public about
  making laws and policies that help people have a
  home

5
What Ive learned in 3 ½ years

• Housing advocates on the Central Coast are
• Lonely and pariahs
• Everyone talks a better game than they play
• Everyone supports
• Housing in someone elses backyard
• Affordable housing if someone else pays for it
  and builds it somewhere else

6
General Plans

• Every city and county has one
• Your most fundamental planning law
• They guide you today into tomorrow
• What they dont do is tell you --
• What happens on the day after tomorrow?
• What happens when your General Plan ends?

7
Yesterday

• General Plan approved June 2002
• Projected a
• 1.25 annual growth rate
• A maximum 2025 population 36,308
• Known as General Plan Buildout
• Some think it is the End of Growth

8
Today

• Atascaderos population
• 2000 Census 26,411
• Jan. 1, 2006 27,683
• May 22, 2006 27,596 (You are shrinking)
• Your annual growth rate is .94
• You are adding less than 200 people a year
• SLO County
• Growth rate since 2000 Census .54
• Adding 2,700 people a year

9
Tomorrow

• At this rate, Atascaderos
• Buildout wont occur until 2040
• Will have a new General Plan before buildout
• Your new plan will have a higher buildout number
• Time will not stop in 2025
• Life, history and growth will continue

10
Random poll

• How many think we arent growing enough?
• How many think we need more workforce housing?
• How many think we are growing too fast?
• How many want development to stop
• Now?
• 2025?
• 2040?

11
Arguments against growth

• This is a democracy We get to choose
• No water
• Too much traffic
• We like being rural
• Weve grown too much
• Dont want to be LA

12
Democracy

• Christine Mulhollands Theory
• We get to choose our future
• Doesnt apply to Owens Valley
• Jerry Bunins Corollary
• You dont get to choose everyone elses future
• This is a democracy. We are a free people.
• You cant stop people from moving here
• You dont have that right

13
Democracy

• The Declaration of Independence describes life,
  liberty and the pursuit of happiness as sacred
  and inalienable rights
• Those rights arent reserved for those who got
  here first!
• If they were, we have to give our land back to
  the Native Americans

14
Water

• Claiming we dont have water is all wet
• We refuse water to block development
• Water is available
• 15,000 acre-feet of state water
• 9,600 acre-feet of Nacimiento water
• Enough water to serve 125,000 people
• 50 more people than the county today
• Enough water for 44 years at todays growth rate

15
Traffic

• Do we have too much traffic now?
• We caused it when we moved here
• We can
• Live with it
• Move
• Pay more taxes for road improvements
• Charge new homes to offset infrastructure needs
  they create
• Not charge new homes to fix impacts we created

16
Rural

• 95 of the county is undeveloped
• 3 of the county is urban
• Other than along highways 101 and 1, we are
• Rural
• Open space
• Parkland and
• Farmland

17
LA vs. SLO

• San Luis Obispo County total
• 260,727 people
• 3,320 square miles
• Population density of 78.5 people per square
  mile.
• Seven cities
• 80 square miles
• 150,000 people
• 1,850 people per square mile.

18
Southern California

• Orange County
• 3 million people
• 800 square miles
• Population density of 3,750 people per square
  mile
• San Fernando Valley
• 1.8 million people
• 220 square miles
• 8,100 per square mile
• Numbers dont lie!

19
California

• Adds 500,000 people a year
• Permits enough homes for 80 of them
• SLO County, to meet state requirements,
• Should add 2,400 homes a year
• Has added less than 2,100 homes a year
• 13 less a year than needed to meet population
  growth

20
Economics 101

• Demand exceeds supply
• Housing costs rise
• Young families and the workforce moves
• Economy suffers
• Public services suffer
• Medical care suffers
• Civic service suffer, etc.

21
Economics 202

• Solutions?
• Stop development
• Build more housing
• Continue what weve been doing
• Try something new

22
Four rules to stop growth

• Sterilize everyone
• Children and grandchildren cause growth
• Stop immigration
• Fences and armed guards around SLO County and
  Atascadero
• Ban economic development
• Business creation and expansion causes growth
• No whining
• We can live without a working class

23
A more radical solution

• Planning for tomorrow
• Zone more land for housing
• Use residentially zoned land intelligently
• Support well-designed higher density projects
• Streamline the development approval process
• Seek regional solutions
• We must create a job-housing balance

24
Higher density

• Higher density isnt high density
• If land is zoned one home per 2 ½ acres
• Make it two homes per acre
• A 500 increase
• Still low density
• Let land zoned four units an acre to have five
  homes
• A 20 increase and still low density

25
Planning for tomorrow

• We arent ready for tomorrow
• We arent ready for today
• Housing permits have fallen the last three years
• Young families and workers are leaving
• Countywide in 1995
• Average 2.5 people a household
• Countywide 2006
• Average single-family home 2.3 people
• Average multi-family home 1.9 people

26
Even more radical solutions

• Compromise and cooperate
• Post Prop. 13 impact 13 model is a failure
• Change attitudes
• Ask not what is in this for me, but what is in
  the best interest of my community
• Embrace change
• The status quo is going in the wrong direction

27
Parting quotes

• Those who cannot remember the past are condemned
  to repeat it. George Santayana
• Insanity is doing the same thing over and over
  and expecting a different result. Albert
  Einstein
• It is not the strongest of the species that
  survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one
  most responsive to change. Charles Darwin