Iran Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow

1
IranYesterday, Today, Tomorrow

• David Antoš, Josef Stráský, Karel Kohout, Michal
  Paulus

A senior official in an important American
political centre, said Instead of bombs, send
them miniskirts. He is right.
Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of
the Islamic Republic of Iran.
2
Overview

• Religion situation
• Recent history
• Current issues with the Western world
• Western world reaction
• Summary

3
Iran - an important part ofMuslim world
4
Zarathustra
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Basic original division of Islam

• Sunna
• Shia
• Kharijism

dark green Shiites light green Sunnites
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Potential leaders of Muslim world I

• Turkey
• Egypt
• Saudi Arabia
• Iran
• To some extent
• Pakistan
• Indonesia

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Potential leaders of Muslim world II

• Turkey
• Westernization
• Egypt
• economic situation
• Saudi Arabia
• small population
• Iran
• different religion and ethnicity
• Pakistan
• distance
• Indonesia
• distance

8
Before 1925

• Until 1925 contest for power Britain and
  Russia
• Difficulty with integration into a world economy
• Reaction of Shiite Clergy
• 1925 Reza Shah Pahlavi crowned

9
1925 1979 Pahlavi Dynasty

• Time of
• educational
• judicial reforms
• Iran was moving to a modern state
• Reduced the influence of religious classes

• Selective form of secularization and
  modernization

10
White Reform and Muhamad P.

• 1960 1979
• White revolution
• ambitious program of social, political and
  economic reforms
• Political cooperation with Western countries
  (US)?
• Entry of western capital and culture
• Protest against islamic values

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Iranian (Islamic) Revolution

• 1979
• Islamic principles of Irans society came to the
  surface
• Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini became leader of the
  Islamic Republic
• Strict, autocratic, theocratic regime
• Ideology of export the islamic revolution
• Time of chaos and the Iran-Iraq war

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Time of Detachment

• Khomeinis Death
• space for the moderates
• normalization of the country

• 90s - Attempts of dialog x US pressure
• (misunderstanding the real situation)?
• 1997 2005
• Mohammad Khatami (President)?
• Tried to lead the country more to the West

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The Second Islamic Revolution

• 2005 - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected
• Country left west-course crashed on islamic
  roots

• Emancipation, self-determination of
  religious-based culture
• Historically under pressure of non-Iranians
  rulers

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Iran - economy

• Semideveloped country
• Chronic problems high unemployment, budget
  deficit
• Oil 80 of export, 25 of GDP, but 1 of labour
  force
• Agriculture, car industry, defence industry,
  electronics

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Economic relations I

• Major commercial partners
• China, Germany, Japan, Russia
• from 1950 until 1978 the United States
• Iran and Libya Sanctions Act

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Economic relations II

• South-south integration including
• Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, China, India, South Africa

• Observer status at the WTO since 2005
• United States blocked joining the WTO
• Economic isolation on international scene

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Nuclear programme 1950 - 1979

• Launched in 1950s with help of the US
• Europe-US-Iran cooperation
• 1976 president Gerald Ford offered a complete
  'nuclear fuel cycle

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Nuclear programme 1979 1990s

• Immediate withdrawal of European/US companies
• 1984 - Bushehr hit by Iraqi air strikes
• cooperation with
• Argentina
• China
• Russia

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Nuclear programme 2000 - 2006

• Until 2004 inspections of IAEA
• Uranium enrichment
• 2006 IAEA reported Iran to UN Security Council

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First sanctions

• 1979 - USA impose sanction after embassy ambush
• 1984
• all loans from international financial
  institutions banned
• prohibited weapons sales and all assistance
• 1987 - U.S. prohibits import from Iran
• 1995 - Clinton - total embargo on dealings
• 1996 - Iran and Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA)?

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Sanctions (continued)?

• Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 (ILSA)?
• denial of Export-Import Bank assistance
• loans over 10 mil. USD prohibited
• denial of export licenses to the violating
  company, ban on imports of the violating company

...?

• 2004
• scientific isolation
• 2006
• Iranian bank is barred from dealing with
  financial institutions

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UN sanctions

• Recent event
• 2006-12-23 UN Security Council Resolution 1737
• Imposed because of uranium enrichment program
• Freezing assets of companies involved in nuclear
  and ballistic missile programmes
• Cannot be enforced militarily
• 2007-4-24 UN Security Council Resolution 1747
• Tightens the sanctions
• Bans arms sales
• Steps up the freeze on assets

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Current situation - overview

• US companies cannot invest more than 20 mil. USD
  in Iranian oil / gas sector of industry.
  Exceptions
• carpets
• caviare
• pistachios
• dried fruit
• Only relaxation 12-2003 - earthquake in Bam.
• 1998 - TotalFinaElf, Gazprom, and Petronas were
  granted a waiver by US.
• 2004 - Lukoil - exploration bids on oil blocks.

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Effects of sanctions

• Iran is relatively unharmed (supplies of oil)?
• Industry - similar to that during socialism in
  Eastern Europe
• RD dependant sectors e.g pharmaceutics 95
  Iranian-only production
• Possible second oil market with Euros instead
  of USD

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Criticism of sanctions

• Isolation - further radicalism
• Feeling of being threatened - nuclear program
• Safety of other countries spare parts for
  planes
• Double standard
• ILSA vs Arab League boycott of Israel
• Iranians rely on the government

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Further information

• Interesting blog
• ahmadinejad.ir
• Katerina xxx
• Dear Mr. Ahmadinejad. Your blog is wonderful!! I
  want to tell you, that you are good president.
  Dont believe, that people in Europe are against
  Iran and you. Most people are with you, but our
  government are against, cos they are bus-boys of
  USA. I support you, you ideas are good. I with
  you. Good luck.

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Verdana 36

• Georgia 24
• Georgia 24
• Georgia 24
• Zelený rám nahore presahuje snímek, zámerne, blok
  nadpisu je roztažený od horního okraje stránky po
  zacátek zelených ornamentu
• Cervený rám je viditelný pouze po konec ornamentu
• Rám s textem je 1,52 cm vodorovne od levého
  horního okraje, 4,5 cm svisle od levého horního