Texas High Plains: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

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Texas High Plains Yesterday, Today, and
Tomorrow(?)

• B.A. Stewart
• Dryland Agriculture Institute
• West Texas AM University

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Land in the Texas High Plains was controlled by
American Indians until 1874. Then, ranching moved
into the region. Farming began in the late 1800s
but the Big Plowout occurred in the early 1900s.
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Back to the fireplace although seldom
acknowledged, the main reason that many farmers
have used intensive tillage is to decompose soil
organic matter for the release of nutrients so
they can be available for growing crops. When
sufficient soil organic matter is no longer
available for burning and releasing nutrients
fertilizer is often used, but this does little to
improve the biological and physical properties of
the soil. Sooner or later, more firewood must be
added, or the fire goes out. On many semiarid
lands, the fire in the fireplace is barely
flickering.
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Conservation tillage, including no-till, is
increasingly being used as an alternative to
conventional tillage. This leaves crop residues
on the soil surface to increase infiltration,
reduce runoff, erosion and decrease evaporation.
More importantly, it begins the process of
re-building the soil organic matter content.
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Even though conservation tillage appears so
promising, its adoption has been slow, and there
is evidence that it will continue to have many
constraints. Tillage is the foundation on
practically all indigenous practices, and even
USDA has a moldboard plow on its seal. Tillage is
ingrained in our culture.
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Total Grain Production in 26 Northern
High Plains Counties (bushels)
1997 205,000,000
1998 209,999,000
1999 231,842,000
2000 172,978,000
2001 175,019,000
2002 166,032,000
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What is the Future of the Area?

• Although it was once believed that the Ogallala
  Aquifer was an underground river that would flow
  forever, it is now well known that it is a finite
  resource that is being depleted rather quickly,
  particularly in the Texas High Plains Region. The
  area of irrigated land as well as the amount of
  water applied annually to each acre will continue
  to decline.

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It is important to take another look back before
sticking my neck out about the future. When I
came to the area in 1968, the focus of the area
was to import water because it had become clear
that the Ogallala Aquifer was being depleted. It
was perceived that water importation was the only
means for the agriculture economy to survive.
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In the late 1960s, the Texas Water Plan was
developed that would have tapped the Mississippi
River below New Orleans, bringing 12 to 13
million acre feet hundreds of miles to Texas. The
water would have been pumped more than 4,000 feet
uphill to the Texas High Plains. It was
anticipated at that time the Ogallala Aquifer
would be largely depleted by 2020. Twelve nuclear
power plants were anticipated to furnish power
for pumping.
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In 1968 the cost to Texas for the plan was
projected to be 3.5 billion, with an additional
5.5 billion to come from the federal government.
In the end, the plan was defeated at the ballot
box but by only 6,000 votes in a state-wide
election. Although in a different way than
projected by the Texas Water Plan, the Texas High
Plains is now a MAJOR importer of water in the
form of grain as will be discussed.
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Estimated Water Usage from the Ogallala Aquifer
in the 26 Northern Counties of the Texas High
Plains

• Corn 700,000 acres
• Grain sorghum 200,000 acres
• Wheat 500,000 acres
• Assuming average annual amounts of irrigation
  water applied are 18 inches for corn, 12 inches
  for grain sorghum, and 10 inches for wheat.

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Corn 700,000 acres x 18 inches 12,600,000 acre
inches or 1,050,000 acre feet Grain sorghum
200,000 acres x 12 inches 2,400,000 acre inches
or 200,000 acre feet Wheat 500,000 acres x 10
inches 5,000,000 acre inches or 416,700 acre
feet   Total for corn, grain sorghum, and wheat
is 1,666,700 acre feet of water  
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Estimated Annual Grain Demand in the 26 Northern
Counties of the Texas High Plains

• Beef Cattle 245,500,000 bushels
• Swine 32,670,000 bushels
• Dairy Cows 4,400,000 bushels
• Total Demand 282,570,000 bushels
• These are estimated by making the following
  assumptions

Stewart and Topliff, West Texas AM
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Grain Demand for Beef Cattle in 26 Texas High
Plains Counties

• 5.5 million beef cattle fed for slaughter (based
  on 2.2 million cattle in feedlots and assuming
  that the feedlots turn over 2.5 times during the
  year)
• Each beef animal fattened gains 500 pounds during
  the feeding period
• Five pounds of grain are required for each pound
  of gain

Stewart and Topliff, West Texas AM
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Grain Demand for Swine in 26 Texas High Plains

• Based on 100,000 sows with each sow producing 20
  pigs that reach slaughter
• Each sow weighs approximately 600 pounds and
  requires an average yearly demand of 9 pounds
  grain per day, or about 3300 pounds per year
• 20 pigs from each sow are fed to a harvest weight
  of 250 pounds and requires 3 pounds of grain for
  each pound for a total of 750 pounds for each pig
  

Stewart and Topliff, West Texas AM
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Grain Demand for Dairy Cows in 26 Texas High
Plains Counties

• Based on 40,000 milk cows
• Each cow weighs about 1600 pounds and eats an
  average of 56 pounds of feed per day of which 17
  pounds is grain for a yearly requirement of 6200
  pounds.

Stewart and Topliff, West Texas AM
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Grain Produced in 26 Northern Texas High Plains
Counties (Avg. last 6 yrs.)

• Corn 118,604,000 bushels
• Grain sorghum 27,449,000 bushels
• Wheat 47,424,000 bushels
• Total 193,477,000 bushels
• Feed Grain 146,053,000 bushels

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Supply and Demand of Grain in 26 Northern Texas
High Plains Counties

• Demand 282,570,000 bushels
• Supply 146,053,000 bushels (includes only corn
  and grain sorghum)
• Grain Deficit 136,517,000 bushels
• If all grain came by unit trains of 104 box cars,
  a train a day would be required.

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Importing grain is importing water because it
takes 1000 pounds of water to produce one pound
of grain. The importation of 136,517,000 bushels
of grain is equal to importing 7.64 billion
pounds of water, or 1,019,200,000 gallons, which
is 3,126,000 acre feet of water. Therefore, these
counties are essentially importing almost two
times as much water in corn as the 1,666,700 acre
feet pumped from the Ogallala aquifer.
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Back to the Future

• The area will diminish as a major grain producer.
  Once called the Golden Spread because of its
  large wheat acreage, and later a storehouse of
  grain resulting from hybrid grain sorghum and
  irrigation, the area is now largely dependent on
  imported grain.
• The area will remain, and even increase, as a
  major concentrated animal feeding region. The
  sparse population and favorable year-round
  climate are very important environmental factors.

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• Grain production under dryland conditions is
  increasingly constrained by production costs,
  particularly harvesting. Approximately half of
  the dryland wheat is grown only for grazing, and
  it is much higher some years. In contrast to
  grain that can be easily imported, forage is
  difficult and more expensive. Therefore, dryland
  cropping systems in the future will focus on
  forage for grazing stockers for the feedlots, and
  in some cases, particularly in the dairy areas,
  for silage and hay for roughage.

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• The future, just as the past was, is highly
  dependent on government programs and policies.
  One should never forget that the Great Plains was
  once mapped as The Great American Desert. Much of
  the region could never have recovered from the
  Dust Bowl without favorable government support.
  Much of the land presently enrolled in CRP will
  never return to cropland, even if CRP payments
  cease. Additional cropland will also likely
  return to permanent grass cover.

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• The future may also be affected by global weather
  changes. If the area becomes warmer as some of
  the climate models predict, dryland crop
  production will almost certainly cease unless
  average precipitation increases.
• Agriculture in the region in the foreseeable
  future is clearly tied to livestock. Unless
  public polices develop that negatively impact
  concentrated animal facilities, the region will
  continue as a major agricultural region because
  of its favorable year-round climate and its
  geographic location being relatively close to
  both animals and grain.

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