Should opinion polls be banned

1
Should opinion polls be banned?
2
? Your task

• Research the following points from your Roberts,
  p.83
• What are opinion polls?
• How accurate are the forecasts?
• How influential are polls on voting behaviour?

3
What are opinion polls?

• Surveys of the political behaviour attitudes of
  a sample group (1,000 2,000) at a particular
  moment
• Exit polls are held following voting at polling
  station
• Conducted by professional organisations (e.g.
  MORI, Callup, ICM)
• Conducted face-to-face, by phone or online

4
How accurate are the forecasts?
Average predicted lead for Labour Party was 1.3,
but the Tories actually won with a 7.6 lead. ITN
paid Harris 200,000 for such inaccurate polls!

• Error margin of /- 3
• 2001 GE, Assoc. of Prof. Polling Organisations
  claimed polls were most accurate since 1987
• Crewe, polls overestimated Labour and
  underestimated Tory vote
• 1992 GE, nearly all polls failed to predict Tory
  victory.

Opinion Polls 1992 GE
Statistical data on accuracy of polls
5
How influential are opinion polls?

• Bandwagon effect voters attracted to winning
  party
• Boomerang effect British love the underdog
• Encourage voting apathy (Butler Kavanagh, e.g.
  Lab lead in 2001 GE lead to low turnout)
• Tactical voters use opinion poll data
• Influence political parties (many commission own
  polls)
• Opinion polls banned in some countries (e.g.
  Germany)

6
? Your task

• Draw up a list of as many reasons to explain why
  you think opinion polls can be so inaccurate.

7
Reasons for inaccuracies

• Respondents not registered esp. prevalent among
  potential Labour voters (Poll Tax effect)
• Respondents lying on issues such as health care
  many might support Labour, but wouldnt vote for
  that party embarrassment at admitting to
  personal political preferences
• Respondents unrepresentative samples too small
• Respondents floating late swing due to
  undecided voters

8
Should opinion polls be banned?
? Your task

• Divide the class into two. The left-hand side
  support the motion, the right reject it.