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WHAT IF ..?

• MANAGING THE RISKS THAT COME WITH HAVING TO MAKE
  DECISIONS

Gp Capt Andy Ebdon RAF
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JAGUAR LOW LEVEL IN SCOTLAND
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A Loose Article in the Aircraft - Ground Cooling
Door Actuator Clevis Pin
DECISION Can it fly? The rules say not,
but Risk - Consequence Pressure How does a
Human decide?
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SO WHAT IS RISK AGAIN?

• Consequence
• Lives
• Injuries
• Loss of property
• Cost
• Reputation
• Probability
• Risk Generation in Human Terms?

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THE HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE PROGRAMME
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HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE SUCCESSFUL PROJECT
MANAGEMENT

• Robust, sophisticated approach to Project
  Management Risk
• Partnered working Shared Risks
• But Vulnerable to Human Frailty
• Losing control and knowing it
• Finding out why
• A simple fix

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GETTING AHEAD OF THE PROBLEM

• Principles not difficult
• What could go wrong?
• What could be the impact?
• How likely is it?
• But in terms of Decision Making how do you know
  what decisions you might have to make, what the
  options could be and which choices would be in
  error?
• Just what are the risks?

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IDENTIFYING RISK IS IT REALLY THAT DIFFICULT?

• Research into Impact of Supervision on Human
  Error in Aircraft Maintenance
• Expert Practitioners very keen to talk about
  risks
• Management Pressures
• Policy Changes
• Distractions
• Night work (Fatigue!)
• Personal Characteristics
• Time Pressures
• But these arent risks!

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SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT COULD BE DONE

• A 3 Stage Process
• Training
• Risk Assessment
• Practice
• Focussed on Decision Making
• As Objective as Possible

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TRAINING

• Aim at those likely to be called upon to make the
  most significant decisions.
• The Nature of Human Error.
• Influencing Factors in the local context.
• Decision Making.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

• By Expert Practitioners the Deciders.
• Individually first, then as groups.
• Start with Undesirable Outcomes not Influencing
  Factors.
• Set Parameters for Consequences and Probability.
• Consider Consequences.
• Consider Probability how Vulnerable to
  Influencing Factors?
• Grade the Risks.

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PRACTICE

• Business Continuity Planning from a Human
  Perspective.
• Disaster Exercises.
• War Gaming and the Command Post Exercise.

Hope for the Best but Prepare for the Worst!
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QUESTIONS?