Looking Back, Looking Forward

1
Looking Back, Looking Forward

• COSMO 06
• 29 September 2006
• Michael S. Turner
• (veteran of COSMO 98, 01, and 02)
• Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics

2
A Brief History ofCosmologyBoom or
Bust(Punctuated equilibrium powered by ideas and
technology)
3
General Relativity ?
PS Never mind on ?
4
Just One Number K (H0)(error bars not needed,
velocity in km)
Hubble Humanson few 100 galaxies, z lt 0.1
5
Landau on Cosmologists
Often in Error, Never in Doubt!
6
Zwicky Dark Matter, Gravitational Lensing,
Supernovae, Jet Propulsion,
7
Cosmology The Search for Two Numbers Sandage
1970
8
The Standard ModelHot Big Bang (circa 1972)

• Reality Based
• BBN (nuclear physics)
• CMB (atomic physics)
• Structure Formation (grav. physics)
• Begins at 0.01 sec
• O0 0.1 (baryons)
• Big Questions
• The naughts
• Large entropy per baryon
• Flatness, Oldness
• Origin of density perturbations
• ? problem

9
The Go Go Junk Bond Days of Early Universe
Cosmology

• Creativity Based
• Inflation
• Cosmic Strings
• Baryogenesis
• Magnetic Monopoles
• Phase Transitions
• Hot and Cold Dark Matter
• Decaying Particles
• Kaluza-Klein

10
(No Transcript)
11
Two Numbers, with error bars
q0 -0.7 0.2
H0 70 7 km/s/Mpc
12
Precision Cosmology Science
13
(No Transcript)
14
Tegmark et al (SDSS)
15
Spergel et al (WMAP)
16
(No Transcript)
17
Precision Cosmology (and accurate too)
CMB (first to second peak) Obh2
0.0220.001 BBN (Deuterium) Obh2
0.0200.001 Ob 4 to 5!
18
Precision Cosmology Era

• Fisher Based
• Cosmological parameters
• Tests of inflation, CDM
• Correlating large, complex data sets
• Cosmological Consistency
• Physical parameters (e.g., neutrino mass)

19
We Know Much

• Flat, Big, and Hot Beginning
• Accelerating
• Old smooth
• Odd mix of baryons, Neutrinos, CDM, Dark Energy
• Shrinking error bars, and no contradictions
• Evidence for inflation
• No surprises, but no name (New Cosmology,
  Concordance Model, )

20
Serious testing of Inflation has begun

• Key Predictions
• Flat Universe
• Almost scale-invariant, Gaussian perturbations
• (n-1) 0.1 and dn/dlnk 0.001
• Gravity waves spectrum, but not amplitude
  predicted
• Key Results
• O0 1.0 0.01
• (n-1) 0.96 0.017 dn/dlnk -0.1 0.05 no
  evidence for nonGaussianity
• r lt 0.55 (95 cl)

Depends significantly upon the priors assumed
21
(No Transcript)
22
Cracks in the Cosmic Egg?

• Varying constants
• BBN abundances (D/Li/He)
• s8
• Large l CMB power spectrum
• Warm dark matter
• Sterile neutrinos (LSND)
• DAMA
• Pioneer Anomaly
• Non gaussianity
• No concordance
• No Higgs, gravity waves,
• Fifth force

23
Modern Times
Measuring the gears is not the same as
understanding the machine
24
Goals Worthy of an Extraordinary Time
25
Worthy of a Big Prize

• Precision cosmology (percent level)
• Identification of the dark matter particle
• Direct detection of gravitational waves
• Progress on cosmic acceleration
• Discovery of supersymmetry
• Understanding of the nature, origin and
  acceleration of the highest energy cosmic rays

26
Worthy of Swedish Goal

• Determining the epoch of inflation (B modes or
  direct GWs)
• Missouri class evidence for particle dark
  matter
• Model for baryon asymmetry
• Fundamental understanding of inflation (or better
  yet, its more ambitious replacement)
• Firm Connection between strings and cosmology
• Cosmological constant problem
• Discovery of evaporating BHs, strings, superheavy
  relics, any new cosmological relic, surprises

27
Worthy of the Ages

• Making sense of the multiverse
• Making sense of cosmic acceleration
• Detecting cosmic neutrinos
• Laboratory evidence for inflation (or X)
• Laboratory evidence for baryogenesis
• Evidence for additional dimensions
• Resolution of initial singularity

28
on the Horizon

• More WMAP, SDSS, SNLS, Essence,
• SZA, SPT, LSST, JDEM,
• Planck, BICEP/Quad, Spud, Spider, Clover,
  polarBear, EBEX, Quiet, , CMB-Pol
• LIGO, GEO, TAMA, VIRGO, LISA
• Tevatron, B-factories, LHC, ILC,
• CDMSII et al, SNO-Lab, KamLand, K2K, MiniBOONE,
  DUSEL, IceCube, GLAST,
• Auger, JWST, GSMT, Con X, SKA,

29
Portfolio Balancing

• Some Observations
• Exciting plans for stunning experiments (still
  need )
• Over-invested in inflation No clear plan B, or
  more ambitious model (cyclic?)
• Big open conceptual problems
• Exciting fields get out of balance (e.g., go-go
  theory in 1980s, phenomenology in 2000s)
• Overinvested? String Theory, Multiverse,
  Phenomenology, Inflation
• Underinvested? Early Universe Theory

30
25 Years of Boom!

• 1980s New ideas from particle physics and
  convergence of the fields
• 1990s Data-driven cosmology
• 2000s Precision Cosmology
• 2010s Golden Age with Deepened Understanding
  of the Universe and the Laws that Govern it

31
Convergence of Frontiers of Particle Physics and
Cosmology

• What is the dark matter particle?
• How did the Universe come to be?
• What are neutrinos telling us about the
  unification of forces and the origin of
  (baryonic) matter?
• What is the dark energy that is causing the
  Universe to accelerate?
• Is there a superworld as envisioned by
  superstring theory?
• How are quantum mechanics and gravity reconciled?
• How many spatial dimensions?
• What are space and time and where did they come
  from?

32
COSMO 2007

• University of Sussex, Brighton, U.K.
• August 21-25 2007

33
(No Transcript)
34
(No Transcript)
35
Big Complicated Data Sets The Devil is in the
Details Correlations
Million Correlated Pixels
10 Terabytes
36
(No Transcript)