THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

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THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY WHY AND HOW ROLE OF
SCIENCE AND CULTURE

• Ivo Šlaus
• World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of
  Trustees, SEED South East European Division of
  WAAS, president
• World Council Pugwash Conference on Science and
  World Affairs
• and The Club of Rome

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• The contemporary world
• ? globalization science generated
• ? rapid changes science generated
• ? characterized by uncertainties and
  instabilities
• ? number of Earths required to provide resources
  used by
• humanity and to absorb their emissions for
  each year
• 1970 1980 2005
• 0.86 1.00 1.25
• World is dangerously in a state of overshoot.
• ? Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with
  governance

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? Cross-border trade 1950 8 GDP,
2000 25 I. Kant ? 24 globalizers (3
billions) increased GDP/c by 5 vs
nonglobalizers decreased by 1 ? 400 household
goods in UK 20 cheaper than 10 years ago ?
By 2010 50 internet users in developing world
vs 4 now ?Worker/producer ? person
? consumer/stakeholder
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• ? in 20 years 30 new infectious diseases,
  resistance to antibiotics, flu pandemic
• ? Terrorism (tanker in harbor 55xHiroshima),
  crime (cyber)
• ? Trust changes quickly
• 1975 20 Americans trusted military vs
• 2000 63
• ? Demographic transition ? within rather short
  interval of time and extremely uneven

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Failures

• ? Income gap 1960 1990 1997
• 301 601 74(82)1
• ? Undernourishment in industrial 2.5,
  in Africa 40
• ? In 1998 gt 45 of people had to live on lt
  2/day
• 1981 to 2001 living on 1/day fell by factor of
  2
• while living on 2/day increased from 2.4 to 2.7
  billions
• ? 54 countries experienced in 1990-2001 decline
  in GDP/c

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? NW1945 ?1985 ?2005 1985 2005 USA 23,000
10,500 USSR/Russia 40,000
9,000 world 70,000 30,000 Americas top 100
foreign policy experts opinion ? The single
greatest threat to US national interest WMD 47
Al Qaida terrorism 32 Bush adm.
policies 14 Iraq war 9 Economic decline
5 Iran 4 Oil dependence 3 ? Are we
winning war on terror? YES 13, NO 84
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Gallup Voice of the People May-June 2005 50,000
citizens, 65 countries equivalent 1.3 billion
persons

• (1)Election free/fair (2)Country
  governed by the will
  of the people
• ? world 47 30
• Political stability index (1)(2) (1)(-2)
  (-1)(-2)
• PSI 2003 PSI 2004 PSI 2005
• World 14 12 5
• Latin America -20 -21
  -2

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Business leaders Political leaders

• Not competent 23 45
• Unethical 38 49
• Too much power 46 53
• Dishonest 40 61

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Percentage of people declaring themselves or
family have not enough to eat

• W.Europe 4
• Asia Pacific 13
• N. America 17
• Latin America 22
• EC Europe 25
• Africa 43
• World 18
• Highest percentages Nigeria (56), Philippines
  (46), Peru (42), Ukraine (38), Pakistan (32),
  Russia (31)

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Most important problems facing the world today

• Poverty 26
• Terrorism 12
• Unemployment 9
• Wars and conlicts 8
• Economic problems 7
• Environment 6
• Drugs 5
• Crime 4

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Throughout our history resources have been
finite. Possession of these resources meant
political power. ? Knowledge doubles in 5 15
years Decision-making quite local and
global Educated vs Uneducated demonstrate
31 6 stopped buying goods 70 34
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The best place to store food is in another
person belly. (Eskimossaying) Social
groups and interactions ? important in evolution.
In 1973 John M. Smith applied game theory to the
evolution of animal strategies. Animals not only
compete but share a resource if that is
beneficiary. Simple species display cooperation
(prisoners dilemma). Repeated prisoners
dilemma winning strategy tit-for-tat cooperate
and never be the first to defect, retaliate only
after your partner has defected, forgive and
cooperate after retaliating just once.
(R.Axelrod)
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? Golden moral rule ? Altruism is an example of
a non-zero-sum-game, i.e. a win-win game. The
state when nobody can gain without somebody else
losing i.e. all win-win games are exhausted -
is called the Pareto maximum. ? Innovations and
more importantly, scientific breakthroughs can
increase the Pareto maximum.
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Why?

• 1) Holocene 10-12 millennia ended in1784 (J.
  Watt), 1873 Antonio Stoppani, V.I. Vernadsky
  Teillard de Chardin noosphere world of thought.
  Energy use grown 16 times during 20 c.
  Anthropocene epoch Paul Crutzen
• Martin Rees Bio and cyber expertise will
  be accessible to millions. It does not require
  special facilities...Even a simple person will
  have the capability of disrupting the world
  through terror or error.
• 2) Knowledge is the resource.
• 3) Breakthrough curiosity-driven research is the
  way to increase Paretos maximum.

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? Development of human and social capital, and
increasing the Pareto optimum requires
knowledge-based society. Knowledge is the main
resource in a knowledge-society. It permeates the
life and the culture of a society policy- and
decision-making. Knowledge society is constantly
changing. Knowledge is inexhaustible and it is
increased by sharing. Knowledge is becoming
today the main political power. (Alvin
Toffler) In the knowledge society many other
resources are used ? use of most of them has to
be appreciably reduced and substituted by other
resources.
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• ? In our own selfish interest we have to get
  involved in the betterment of global conditions.
  We need to emphasize cooperation, networking and
  solidarity, increasing human options and freedom.
• ? In a knowledge society individuals and social
  groups will still behave and act irrationally,
  make numerous mistakes, even be stupid. It is the
  responsibility of the knowledge society to
  develop and establish ways that can minimize the
  harm of such stupidities and maximize their
  possible benefits.

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How?

• Learn from successes
• ? world ave developing world
• 1960 2250 2100 Kcal/day capita
• 1997 2750 2600 Kcal/day capita
• ? Higher life expectancy and healthy active life
• ? end of Cold War and spread of democracies
• ? successful treaties, e.g. ozone

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Our greatest success Knowledge

• ? existing science, humanities and
• technology
• ? knowledge one produces ongoing and
• planned RD,innovations and ideas
  -IljfPetrov
• ? education and
• ? language, literature, art
• We understand by our heart as much as by our
  brain. (B. Pascal)

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• ? Eliminate violence, war, terrorism ? Human and
  
  social dignity, development, full employment
• Culture of peace and knowledge
• democracy and freedom
• ? Eliminate ignorance ? Research and
  education
• ? ?
• in spite of cumulative advantage feature of
  not an elite in a sea science ? breakthru
  ? catch up of mediocrity

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? We have to live with dangerous technologies
? ? We have to live with uncertainties in
quantum physics from uncertainties to quantum
computer and life ? ? Reduce non-renewable
resources and substitute by other resources. ?
Reduce and eliminate dangers and threats we
face. ? Knowledge can cause quantitative and
qualitative jump in the GDP/capita
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? psycho-social pressures and stress perception
that our dignity and that of our social group is
threatened short term interests ? globalization
? interdependence/ no major war ? energy demand
in 2030 ? 2.6 times larger ? small influence ?
large effects (CO2) ? Search for alternative
inputs much earlier than we reach a maximum. ?
whatever we do not do today will be more
difficult to do tomorrow.
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?ST give the power to change the future. ? IGO
handful 1900 to 4667 in 1996 ? NGO 196 in 1900
to 44,000 in 2000 ? Global civil society ?
Knowledge-Governance Intertwining ? Assure
sustainable consumption. Minimize the dangers of
modern technologies. Revitalize hidden and
traditional knowledge.
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How close are we in achieving knowledge
society?ROADMAP

• ?Each nuclear state reduces its nuclear weapons
  (number and power) in half every two years.
• ?Each state reduces its total military power in
  half every five years.
• ?Appreciate Education is needed not only for
  jobs and skills, but much more to be able to
  live.
• ?Assure Low-cost technologies, e.g. ICT 100
  laptops.

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• ? education at all levels for everybody and
  lifelong
• Europe USA Japan South Korea
• ? working population 21 38 36
• with tertiary education
• ? Gross enrolment 52 81
  82
• Within 500 leading universities Europe
  cradle of education has very few.
• ? European Institute of Technology as a network

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? Economy will swell by 40 from 2005 to 2015 ?
Chinese middle class from 65 millions in 2005
to 650 in
2020 ?Appreciate ? Work ? Employment. ?
Changes in jobs and skills, ? Human resources
development. ? Capacity to manage change. ?
Taking risks and controlling risks.
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?Each state reduces unemployment by 2 each 2
years by increasing employment in education and
research Since less person-hours are needed to
achieve the same output in agriculture and
manufacturing and since part of services are
redundant, the demand for new jobs will be in
education (About a factor 4-6, since instead of
12-16 year education, a lifelong, i.e. about 60
year long education, and for a much larger number
od persons.) and in RD. Knowledge-intensive
sectors in EU 33 (UK 41)
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Europe USA Japan ? GERD/GDP
1.99 2.76 3.12 ? top 1 cited
articles 37.3 62.8 ? scientific
publications 46.1 39.4 10.8 ?
world researchers 33.4 22.8
11.7 (5521 in thousands) 1843
1261 647 ? researchers/million inhabi
2319 4373 5085
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? Each state increases its GERD to reach 3 of
its GDP, but assuring that all RD outputs
indicators (top 5 cited papers, number of NP
and FM laureates and of fellows of
international/regional academies, number of
leading universities and research institutes)
increase, intertwining knowledge with economy and
governance. (assessed by involvement of active
top scientists in policy- and decision-making
bodies above a threshold of 10). Ownership of
knowledge Knowledge as a common good.
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Predictions Scenaria

• Scenaria are rigorous, logical, but imaginative
  stories about what future might be, designed to
  help plan.
• Scenaria are NOT predictions. Multiple scenaria.
  They are tools for preparation early 70-ies by
  Shell. Now IBM, Coca-Cola, Apple, ATT, DARPA,
  Heineken, Kellogg, Republic of Singapore,...
• Scenaria identify predetermineds, critical
  uncrtainties, wild cards, embedded
  assumptions and it is useful if scenaria have
  early warnings.
• Exponential growth - Singularities -
  Catastrophic phenomena - S curves

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• The Heaven Scenario
• Ray Kurzweil Singularity is near conquering
  disease poverty, technology is in control, but
  increase in wisdom, love, truth and peace.
• 2) The Hell Scenario
• Bill Joy Why the future does not need us, F.
  Fukuyama Our posthuman future hostile world,
  destroying large segments of biosphere,
  reversals.
• The Prevail Scenario
• Jaron Zepel Lanier (named virtual reality) The
  Future that Loves Us increasing links among
  humans, transcendence is social, not solitary.
  Human are choosing their future.

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Caveat Knowledge is contextualized only within a
specific cultural system. All cultures need
constant changes?!! TIME ? Chronos and Kairos ?
There was no time when we did not exists
(Bhagavad Gita) ? Man is afraid of time, but time
is afraid of pyramides(Arab) ? Future is an
ethical category we choose it. (Soedjatmoko)
Theory of relativity Albert Einstein While
most resources existed separately of people,
knowledge resides in people.