NUCLEAR WEAPONS and other cheerful things

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NUCLEAR WEAPONS and other cheerful things

• Easy ways for doctors to make a difference
• and why we should
• Dr Sue Wareham
• President, Medical Association for Prevention of
  War (MAPW)
• MAPW is the Australian affiliate of the
  International Physicians for the Prevention of
  Nuclear War (IPPNW)
• GP in Giralang, ACT
• May 2008

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Our task as doctors

• prevention, prevention, prevention,
• especially when we have no cure.
• In the event of a nuclear war, our profession
  will have very little, if anything, to offer the
  survivors.
• The imperative to prevent such an occurrence is
  overwhelming.

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IPPNW and MAPW

• IPPNW formed in 1980 to abolish nuclear weapons
• MAPW formed in 1981 primarily for the same
  purpose
• Both organisations also work for the prevention
  of all wars
• 90 victims of war are civilians

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Nuclear weapons

• are different from every other type of weapon
• No other weapon comes close to causing the
  destruction, death and suffering caused by a
  single nuclear bomb

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Nuclear explosions

• Explosive power measured by the mass equivalent
  of TNT
• 1 kiloton bomb has an explosive yield equivalent
  to 1000 tons of TNT
• 1 megaton bomb has an explosive yield equivalent
  to 1,000,000 tons of TNT

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August 6, 1945

• US detonated a 15 kiloton bomb over
• Hiroshima, Japan
• Deaths approx 90,000 immediately,
• 140,000 total by the end of the year
• 180 out of the citys 200 doctors killed
• Ground temperatures reached about 3,800 degrees
  Celsius

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August 9, 1945

• US detonated a 21 kiloton bomb over
• Nagasaki,Japan
• Deaths approximately 40,000 immediately,
• 75,000 total by the end of the year
• Many modern nuclear weapons
• tens to hundreds of times more
• destructive than the Hiroshima
• and Nagasaki bombs

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• Most survivors with burn and blast injuries
  received little or no medical care.
• Large numbers of those who survived the immediate
  damage died in the following weeks from radiation
  sickness
• Death toll from cancers is still rising

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One-megaton bomb detonated in the air

• Intense flash of light, which can cause blindness
  to those tens of kms away.
• Fireball expands and rises rapidly and develops
  into a mushroom cloud practically everything
  within 3 kms vapourised.
• Firestorms spread over a wide area, causing burns
  and asphyxiation. Hurricane force winds within 4
  kms
• Radiant heat causes deep burns up to 10 kms away,
  superficial burns up to 15 kms away

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One-megaton bomb detonated in the air

• Powerful blast wave - starts immediately, but
  travels more slowly than the flash and fireball
• Buildings collapse
• Major damage to buildings within 14 km
• Shattered windows and other flying debris up to
  20 30 km radius

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One-megaton bomb detonated in the air

• Acute radiation exposure
• Gastrointestinal damage
• Uncontrolled internal bleeding
• Bleeding from gums or within the skin
• Massive infections
• Death

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One-megaton bomb detonated in the air

• Delayed radiation exposure
• Everything in vicinity of explosion radioactive
• Hiroshima - radioactive rainstorms
• Increased risk of developing cancer for survivors
  and those who enter the affected area to deliver
  aid

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One-megaton bomb detonated in the air

• In case of a nuclear bomb
• dont bother to call your doctor!
• No significant medical response possible
• Hospitals destroyed, many health care providers
  killed
• Supplies, communications, roads and power supply
  destroyed

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• NEJM April 30, 1998 Lachlan Forrow et al
• Accidental Nuclear War a Post-Cold War
  Assessment
• Studied likely effects of attack on the US by 48
  nuclear warheads from a single Russian Delta-IV
  submarine
• Immediate deaths 6,838,000
• Most of the major medical centres in each urban
  area lie within the zone of total
  destructionThe number of patients with severe
  burns and other critical injuries would far
  exceed the available resources of all critical
  care facilities nationwide, including the
  countrys 1,708 beds in burn care units (most of
  which are already occupied).

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Nuclear terrorism

• Possibilities
• Attacking a nuclear reactor
• Stealing or making a nuclear weapon
• Using a dirty bomb (dispersal of radioactive
  material by conventional explosive)
• Only 20kg of HEU or 10kg
• of plutonium or less is needed to make
• a nuclear weapon

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Nuclear Terrorism Scenario

• 12.5 kT nuclear explosion in cargo container in
  the port of New York City
• Immediate blast and burn deaths 52,000
• Acute radiations sickness 44,000, including
  10,000 fatal
• Fallout additional 200,000 deaths
• Helfand I et al. BMJ2002324356-9

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Weapons grade uranium and nuclear medicine

• There are two possible types of fuel for nuclear
  weapons HEU (highly enriched uranium) and
  plutonium. LEU (low enriched uranium) cannot be
  used for weapons
• Currently the vast majority of reactors used to
  produce medical isotopes globally use HEU targets
  for neutron bombardment
• Therefore large amounts of HEU are stored in
  poorly secured commercial locations around the
  globe. This is a serious security risk
• There are no technical impediment to converting
  reactors that produce medical isotopes to LEU.
  Our profession is well placed to call for the
  elimination of weapons grade uranium from medical
  isotope production.

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Nuclear winter

• Airborne contaminants from destroyed cities would
  absorb and reflect the suns rays
• Would result in an extended period of
  semi-darkness, large temperature drops,
  agricultural collapse and famine
• Potentially generated from as few as 100
  detonations (current global arsenals 26,000
  weapons)

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Nuclear winter
The view of the Earth from Apollo 10 (18 May
1969) from 26,000 nautical miles on its journey
to the Moon
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Nuclear winter
This is what the world would look like after a
large-scale nuclear holocaust
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Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict

• Brian Toon, Alan Robock et al. 2006
• Rutgers University, University of Colorado at
  Boulder, University of California at Los Angeles.
  
• Even a small-scale regional nuclear war - 100
  Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons used in South
  Asia - could disrupt the global climate for a
  decade or more, and affect nearly every person on
  earth. This is 0.03 current world arsenals.
• Smoke emissions from the firestorms would be vast
  could exceed 5 million metric tons

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• ..This would cause cooling of several degrees
  over large areas of North America and Eurasia,
  including most of the grain-growing regions.
• Ira Helfand, 2007. Royal Society of Medicine
  conference
• London
• From the above scenario, it seems reasonable to
  postulate a total global death toll in the range
  of 1 billion from starvation alone.would lead to
  major epidemics of infectious diseases
• .

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Current Arsenals
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Current nuclear arsenals

• 26,000 nuclear weapons
• Russia 15,000
• United States 10,000
• France 350
• United Kingdom 200
• China 130
• Israel 75-200
• India 50
• Pakistan 50
• North Korea 0-10

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Nuclear testing

• 2,059 nuclear test explosions by 8 countries
• United States 1,030
• Russia (USSR) 715
• France 210
• United Kingdom 45
• China 45
• India 7
• Pakistan 6
• North Korea 1

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Effects of nuclear testing

• Estimated 430,000 cancer deaths from
  radioactivity taken up by the year 2000 alone
• Total cancer death toll 2.4 million for radiation
  exposure over infinity.
• Tests sites around the world contaminated

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Launch on Warning (LoW)

• Retaliation with nuclear weapons to a perceived
  (by radar or satellite) nuclear attack by another
  state
• Decision on whether or not to retaliate must be
  made in minutes
• Approx 4,000 Russian and US nuclear weapons still
  on high alert

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January / February 2007
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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

• January 17, 2007
• Minute hand of Doomsday Clock moved closer to
  midnight now five minutes to midnight,
  reflecting growing concerns about a second
  nuclear age

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1996 Canberra Commission on the Elimination of
Nuclear Weapons

• The world faces threats of nuclear proliferation
  and nuclear terrorism. These threats are growing.
  They must be removed.
• ... NW diminish the security of all states.
  Indeed states which possess them become
  themselves targets of nuclear weapons.

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• Sure its a health problem
• but what can we do about it?

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• Initiated by MAPW, now a major focus of IPPNW
  activity, and gaining strength globally

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About ICAN

• ICANs goal is a Nuclear Weapons Convention
  (NWC), a treaty to ban the development, testing,
  production, use and threat of use of nuclear
  weapons.
• A Model (draft) NWC already exists as an official
  UN document.

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ICANs message is one of hope

• Can you imagine a world without nuclear weapons?
  I CAN!

www.icanw.org
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Things busy doctors can do to help abolish
nuclear weapons

• Raise awareness. Speak with your colleagues,
  friends and family about this issue.
• Ask your professional college to adopt a policy
  to support the abolition of nuclear weapons.
• Request space in any newsletters and other
  publications you know of for an article on
  nuclear weapons or ICAN.
• Join MAPW
• Arrange for a speaker from MAPW to address a
  group, small or large.

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• Doctors have a unique role to play in
  educating about threats to health.

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Doctors are listened to

• The International Physicians for the Prevention
  of Nuclear War has come to exercise a tremendous
  influence on world public opinion within quite a
  short period of time.It is impossible to ignore
  what these people are saying. ..For what they
  say and what they do is prompted by accurate
  knowledge and a passionate desire to warn
  humanity about the dangers looming over it. .No
  serious politician has the right to disregard
  their conclusions or neglect the ideas by which
  they take world public opinion a stage ahead.
• Former President of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev,
  in his book Perestroika