Title: NUCLEAR WEAPONS and other cheerful things
1NUCLEAR WEAPONS and other cheerful things
- Easy ways for doctors to make a difference
- and why we should
- Dr Sue Wareham
- President, Medical Association for Prevention of
War (MAPW) - MAPW is the Australian affiliate of the
International Physicians for the Prevention of
Nuclear War (IPPNW) - GP in Giralang, ACT
- May 2008
2Our task as doctors
- prevention, prevention, prevention,
- especially when we have no cure.
- In the event of a nuclear war, our profession
will have very little, if anything, to offer the
survivors. - The imperative to prevent such an occurrence is
overwhelming.
3IPPNW and MAPW
- IPPNW formed in 1980 to abolish nuclear weapons
- MAPW formed in 1981 primarily for the same
purpose - Both organisations also work for the prevention
of all wars - 90 victims of war are civilians
4Nuclear weapons
- are different from every other type of weapon
- No other weapon comes close to causing the
destruction, death and suffering caused by a
single nuclear bomb
5Nuclear explosions
- Explosive power measured by the mass equivalent
of TNT - 1 kiloton bomb has an explosive yield equivalent
to 1000 tons of TNT - 1 megaton bomb has an explosive yield equivalent
to 1,000,000 tons of TNT
6August 6, 1945
- US detonated a 15 kiloton bomb over
- Hiroshima, Japan
- Deaths approx 90,000 immediately,
- 140,000 total by the end of the year
- 180 out of the citys 200 doctors killed
- Ground temperatures reached about 3,800 degrees
Celsius -
7August 9, 1945
- US detonated a 21 kiloton bomb over
- Nagasaki,Japan
- Deaths approximately 40,000 immediately,
- 75,000 total by the end of the year
- Many modern nuclear weapons
- tens to hundreds of times more
- destructive than the Hiroshima
- and Nagasaki bombs
8Hiroshima and Nagasaki
- Most survivors with burn and blast injuries
received little or no medical care. - Large numbers of those who survived the immediate
damage died in the following weeks from radiation
sickness - Death toll from cancers is still rising
9One-megaton bomb detonated in the air
- Intense flash of light, which can cause blindness
to those tens of kms away. - Fireball expands and rises rapidly and develops
into a mushroom cloud practically everything
within 3 kms vapourised. - Firestorms spread over a wide area, causing burns
and asphyxiation. Hurricane force winds within 4
kms - Radiant heat causes deep burns up to 10 kms away,
superficial burns up to 15 kms away
10One-megaton bomb detonated in the air
- Powerful blast wave - starts immediately, but
travels more slowly than the flash and fireball - Buildings collapse
- Major damage to buildings within 14 km
- Shattered windows and other flying debris up to
20 30 km radius
11One-megaton bomb detonated in the air
- Acute radiation exposure
- Gastrointestinal damage
- Uncontrolled internal bleeding
- Bleeding from gums or within the skin
- Massive infections
- Death
12One-megaton bomb detonated in the air
- Delayed radiation exposure
- Everything in vicinity of explosion radioactive
- Hiroshima - radioactive rainstorms
- Increased risk of developing cancer for survivors
and those who enter the affected area to deliver
aid
13One-megaton bomb detonated in the air
- In case of a nuclear bomb
- dont bother to call your doctor!
- No significant medical response possible
- Hospitals destroyed, many health care providers
killed - Supplies, communications, roads and power supply
destroyed
14- NEJM April 30, 1998 Lachlan Forrow et al
- Accidental Nuclear War a Post-Cold War
Assessment - Studied likely effects of attack on the US by 48
nuclear warheads from a single Russian Delta-IV
submarine - Immediate deaths 6,838,000
- Most of the major medical centres in each urban
area lie within the zone of total
destructionThe number of patients with severe
burns and other critical injuries would far
exceed the available resources of all critical
care facilities nationwide, including the
countrys 1,708 beds in burn care units (most of
which are already occupied).
15Nuclear terrorism
- Possibilities
- Attacking a nuclear reactor
- Stealing or making a nuclear weapon
- Using a dirty bomb (dispersal of radioactive
material by conventional explosive) - Only 20kg of HEU or 10kg
- of plutonium or less is needed to make
- a nuclear weapon
16Nuclear Terrorism Scenario
- 12.5 kT nuclear explosion in cargo container in
the port of New York City - Immediate blast and burn deaths 52,000
- Acute radiations sickness 44,000, including
10,000 fatal - Fallout additional 200,000 deaths
- Helfand I et al. BMJ2002324356-9
17Weapons grade uranium and nuclear medicine
- There are two possible types of fuel for nuclear
weapons HEU (highly enriched uranium) and
plutonium. LEU (low enriched uranium) cannot be
used for weapons - Currently the vast majority of reactors used to
produce medical isotopes globally use HEU targets
for neutron bombardment - Therefore large amounts of HEU are stored in
poorly secured commercial locations around the
globe. This is a serious security risk - There are no technical impediment to converting
reactors that produce medical isotopes to LEU.
Our profession is well placed to call for the
elimination of weapons grade uranium from medical
isotope production.
18Nuclear winter
- Airborne contaminants from destroyed cities would
absorb and reflect the suns rays - Would result in an extended period of
semi-darkness, large temperature drops,
agricultural collapse and famine - Potentially generated from as few as 100
detonations (current global arsenals 26,000
weapons)
19Nuclear winter
The view of the Earth from Apollo 10 (18 May
1969) from 26,000 nautical miles on its journey
to the Moon
20Nuclear winter
This is what the world would look like after a
large-scale nuclear holocaust
21Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict
- Brian Toon, Alan Robock et al. 2006
- Rutgers University, University of Colorado at
Boulder, University of California at Los Angeles.
- Even a small-scale regional nuclear war - 100
Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons used in South
Asia - could disrupt the global climate for a
decade or more, and affect nearly every person on
earth. This is 0.03 current world arsenals. - Smoke emissions from the firestorms would be vast
could exceed 5 million metric tons
22- ..This would cause cooling of several degrees
over large areas of North America and Eurasia,
including most of the grain-growing regions. - Ira Helfand, 2007. Royal Society of Medicine
conference - London
- From the above scenario, it seems reasonable to
postulate a total global death toll in the range
of 1 billion from starvation alone.would lead to
major epidemics of infectious diseases - .
23Current Arsenals
24Current nuclear arsenals
- 26,000 nuclear weapons
- Russia 15,000
- United States 10,000
- France 350
- United Kingdom 200
- China 130
- Israel 75-200
- India 50
- Pakistan 50
- North Korea 0-10
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26Nuclear testing
- 2,059 nuclear test explosions by 8 countries
- United States 1,030
- Russia (USSR) 715
- France 210
- United Kingdom 45
- China 45
- India 7
- Pakistan 6
- North Korea 1
27Effects of nuclear testing
- Estimated 430,000 cancer deaths from
radioactivity taken up by the year 2000 alone - Total cancer death toll 2.4 million for radiation
exposure over infinity. - Tests sites around the world contaminated
28Launch on Warning (LoW)
- Retaliation with nuclear weapons to a perceived
(by radar or satellite) nuclear attack by another
state - Decision on whether or not to retaliate must be
made in minutes - Approx 4,000 Russian and US nuclear weapons still
on high alert
29January / February 2007
30Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
- January 17, 2007
- Minute hand of Doomsday Clock moved closer to
midnight now five minutes to midnight,
reflecting growing concerns about a second
nuclear age
311996 Canberra Commission on the Elimination of
Nuclear Weapons
- The world faces threats of nuclear proliferation
and nuclear terrorism. These threats are growing.
They must be removed. - ... NW diminish the security of all states.
Indeed states which possess them become
themselves targets of nuclear weapons.
32- Sure its a health problem
- but what can we do about it?
33- Initiated by MAPW, now a major focus of IPPNW
activity, and gaining strength globally
34About ICAN
- ICANs goal is a Nuclear Weapons Convention
(NWC), a treaty to ban the development, testing,
production, use and threat of use of nuclear
weapons. - A Model (draft) NWC already exists as an official
UN document.
35ICANs message is one of hope
- Can you imagine a world without nuclear weapons?
I CAN!
www.icanw.org
36Things busy doctors can do to help abolish
nuclear weapons
- Raise awareness. Speak with your colleagues,
friends and family about this issue. - Ask your professional college to adopt a policy
to support the abolition of nuclear weapons. - Request space in any newsletters and other
publications you know of for an article on
nuclear weapons or ICAN. - Join MAPW
- Arrange for a speaker from MAPW to address a
group, small or large.
37- Doctors have a unique role to play in
educating about threats to health.
38Doctors are listened to
- The International Physicians for the Prevention
of Nuclear War has come to exercise a tremendous
influence on world public opinion within quite a
short period of time.It is impossible to ignore
what these people are saying. ..For what they
say and what they do is prompted by accurate
knowledge and a passionate desire to warn
humanity about the dangers looming over it. .No
serious politician has the right to disregard
their conclusions or neglect the ideas by which
they take world public opinion a stage ahead. - Former President of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev,
in his book Perestroika