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Orchestra of Treaties Scenariofor after 2012

• Taishi Sugiyama, Central Research Institute of
  Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)
• sugiyama_at_criepi.denken.or.jp
• Side-Event Developing Post-Kyoto Architecture
  CRIEPI/FNI/HWWA/CASS/IHDP
• June 12th , 2003, Bonn

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Introduction
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Kyoto Achievements

• Creation of comprehensive Cap Trade systems
• Political awareness increased
• Stakeholders identified themselves (renewable
  producer, ESCO, forestry etc).
• Low-cost emission cut opportunities were
  identified.

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Simple Kyoto Plus is not enough

• Kyoto Plus negotiation of caps without
  changing the structure of Kyoto Protocol.
• USA, China, India, etc. unlikely to take on caps
• Coverage of cap will be limited to willingness.
  EU (?) Others(?)
• Difficult to keep price high to induce enough
  change in investment/ technological RD.
• Legal instruments other than cap trade are
  crucial

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What International Legal Instruments Should Do?
- Lessons from History of Pollution Control -
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Followers Do Better
Pollution
Income
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Demonstration of Feasibility Made Followers Do
Better
1. Technology. eg. Sulfur scrubber development
2. Institution. eg. Govt organization, laws
3. Idea eg. Pollutions should be controlled
eg. Public nuisance undermine brand
4. Economy --- Economy is still running!
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Lessons

• Take the lead makes sense.
• The key is demonstration of feasibility
  technology, institution, idea, and economy.
• Requirement for international legal instrument
• Encourage such demonstration!

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Orchestra of Treaties Reform of Kyoto
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Kyoto The Real Shortcomings

• Adversarial Negotiation Setup
• Trying the impossible to impose caps to parties.
• Negotiation of all policies linked with caps
  each policy negotiation is adversarial few
  progress.
• (e.g. Reporting, Sink).
• Parties of rights without duties exist evils
  gain most.
• Lengthy, complex, abstract negotiation absence
  of real stakeholders (PV producer, ESCO etc).

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Orchestra of Treaties

• UNFCCC Protocols
• Monitoring Protocol
• Scientific Cooperation Protocol
• G8 / G20 minus 1 Treaties
• (G8key developed countriesEUJPNUS etc)
• (G20G8key developing countries )
• (minus 1 is recalcitrant(s) in each treaty)
• Renewable Treaty
• F-gas Treaty, Sink Treaty, Geological Storage
  Treaty
• Binding Cap Treaty
• Climate-Friendly Development Treaty
• Technology RDD Treaty, Technology Transfer Treaty
• Adaptation Treaty

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Orchestra of Treaties

• Orchestra of single issue treaties.
• Like-minded parties cooperate on a single issue
  area of common interest,
• De-linking the single issue with binding caps,
• Parties have right and duties in each Treaty to
  keep evils free-riders out of negotiation,
• Invite stakeholders (e.g. PV producer in
  renewable treaty) in each negotiation, to create
  Green Greedy coalition

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Orchestra of Treaties

• How it works?
• Like-minded Parties, with Green Greedy, deepen
  international cooperation in each Treaty.
• Feasibility of domestic climate policies are
  demonstrated.
• More Parties feel confident to deepen their
  commitment in more treaties.

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Conclusion

• Kyoto is significant, but simple Kyoto Plus,
  will fail
• Process should be reformed from adversarial setup
  to cooperative one Orchestra of Treaties
  mostly outside UNFCCC.

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GREEN GREEDYCOALITION

• Eg. 1. Baptist Bootleggers

Eg. 2. Ozone Protocol DuPont Eg. 3. Auto
emissions Honda