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RATIONAL ACTION THEORY
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE DATA SETS
?
RAT AND QAD, ARE THEY MARRIED BY NOW OR STILL
SINGLES?
2
THE BRIEF ANSWER RAT AND QAD STILL HAVE NOT TIED
THE KNOT AND ACTUALLY, RAT NOW IS CALLING QAD
NAMES THE INVENTED INVECTIVE VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY
3
WOUT ULTEE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY RADBOUD
UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS ICS 20th
ANNIVERSARY GRONINGEN NOVEMBER 11, 2006
4
TO ANSWER ITS QUESTION, THIS PRESENTATION
DISCUSSES PAPERS BY NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN IT
SEEMS OBVIOUS THAT THE THESE TWO PAPERS, FROM ICS
MEMBERS, ARE MORE WITHIN QAD THAN WITHIN
RAT VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY IS ALIVE AND WELL IN THE
ICS?
5
SEQUENCE IN MY PRESENTATION DID RAT INVENT A
SCAPEGOAT? DOES RAT OFFER A SOUND EXEMPLAR?
DOES RAT HAVE ENOUGH PUZZLES? HOW DOES RAT DEAL
WITH CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS? RAT AND ONE- OR
MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES? RAT ONLY MARKETS OR
MORE INSTITUTIONS? RAT INDIVIDUALS WHO ACT
LOGICALLY OR INDIVIDUALS WHO THINK IN ANALOGIES?
IS RAT A STUMBLING PARADIGM?
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RAT HAS QAD AS A SCAPEGOAT AND THE BÊTE NOIRE IS
DUNCANS PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE
CYCLE BOUDON CURSED DUNCANS MODEL AS VARIABLE
SOCIOLOGY, THAT TERM OF OPPROBATION WAS APPLIED
AGAIN TO DUNCANS MODEL BY HEDSTRÖM AND IS
NOWAPPLIED GENERALLY BY ESSER
8
BLAU DUNCAN, THE AMERICAN OCCUPATIONAL
STRUCTURE, 1967, p. 170 THE BASIC MODEL, WHICH
PERTAINS TO THE USA IN 1962 SURELY, FIVE
INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES DOTS REFER TO CONCEPTS,
ARROWS STAND FOR EFFECTS
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MISSINGCOEFFI-CIENTS .342 .321 .288
.313
DUNCANS INGREDIENTS OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR FOUR
AGE GROUPS
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DUNCAN COMPUTED FOUR MODELS TO TEST THE
HYPOTHESIS THAT THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO
INDUSTRY WEAKENS THE TIE BETWEEN FATHERS AND
SONS OCCUPATION AND STRENGTHENS THE BOND
BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION
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TO BRING QAD INTO THE BOAT OF RAT, RAT OFFERS
AN EXEMPLAR TO QAD COLEMANS BOAT
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COLEMAN, FOUNDATIONS, 1990, P. 6 THE MAJOR
PROBLEM FOR EXPLANATIONS OF SYSTEM BEHAVIOR
BASED ON ACTIONS AND ORIENTATIONS AT A LEVEL
BELOW THAT OF THE SYSTEM IS THAT OF MOVING FROM
THE LOWER LEVEL TO THE SYSTEM LEVEL NOTE NOT
MOVING FROM THE HIGHER TO THE LOWER LEVEL
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THE SOLUTION COLEMANS BOAT TAKEN FROM HEDSTRÖM
2005, p. 115
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COLEMANS BOAT APPLIED TO THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE
CYCLE
SOCIETAL EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITY
SOCIETAL INCOME INEQUALITY
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION
INDIVIDUAL INCOME
Coleman, Microfoundations and macrosocial
behavior, 1987
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THIS COLEMAN BOAT IS NOT SEAWORTHY
THE BOTTOM OF COLEMANS BOAT IS ALSO ITS ROOF THE
BEST BOAT IS A RAFT
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DUNCANS RELATION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND INCOME IS
NOT ONLY AN INDIVIDUAL RELATION IT IS ALSO A
MACRO PROPERTY IT REFERS TO THE USA IN 1962 AND
IT IS A VARIABLE SOCIETAL PROPERTY IT CAN BE
COMPUTED FOR OTHER PLACES AND TIMES
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ONE WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO
PROPERTIES IN A MACRO PROPERTY
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1962
INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1962
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 1993
INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 1993
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 2003
INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 2003
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ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO
PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PERCENTAGES
ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES
OCCUPATION FATHER
OCCUPATION SON
A RAFT WITH TWO MASTS AND TWO SAILS TO REPRESENT
THE SHIFT FROM THE FIRST TO THE THIRD GENERATION
OF MOBILITY STUDIES THE SAILS TAKE THE RAFT IN
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND MAKE FOR SEPARATE
MACROQUESTIONS
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RAT IS A PARADIGM ALTERNATIVE TO QAD, BUT WITHOUT
A GESTALT SWITCH
ONE ERROR OF COLEMANS BOAT IS THAT IT DRAWS
LINES FOR EFFECTS BETWEEN CONCEPTS, INSTEAD OF
LINES FOR DERIVABILITY BETWEEN FALSIFIABLE
PROPOSITIONS THE OTHER ERROR IS THE GOAL OF
MOVING FROM MICRO TO MACRO IT IS EASIER TO MOVE
FROM MACRO TO MICRO AND STARTING WITH
MACROPROBLEMS DOES THE TRICK
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RAT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN A PARADIGM LARGELY WITHOUT
PUZZLES, AND EVEN MORE SO PUZZLES ABOUT
SOCIETIES GOLDTHORPIAN RAT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN AN
EMPIRICAL REGULARITY, WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A
PUZZLE GOLDTHORPE, ON SOCIOLOGY, 2000
23
ALSO, ANY GOOD THEORY EXPLAINS A HOST OF
EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES UNTIL NOW RAT DOES NOT DO
SO RATHER, RAT OFFERS SEVERAL EXPLANATIONS FOR
ONE REGULARITY THAT IS TOPSYTURVYDOM
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THESE TO-BE-EXPLAINED EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES
SHOULD PERTAIN TO SOCIETIES IF THE REGULARITIES
PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS ONLY, THEY FALL OUTSIDE
THE SCOPE OF SOCIOLOGYS QUESTIONS
25
NEEDS PAPER AND VAN TUBERGENS PAPER TAKE
SOCIETIES AS THE UNITS ON WHICH QUESTIONS ARE
BEING RAISED THESE QUESTIONS ALSO REFER TO THE
VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE POPULATIONS OF THESE
SOCIETIES NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN RAISE MULTI-UNIT
QUESTIONS
26
VAN TUBERGEN SEEKS TO EXPLAIN SEVERAL EMPIRICAL
REGULARITIES NEED HAS A PUZZLE WHY DO MORE
LIBERAL ABORTION LAWS IN A COUNTRY NOT ALWAYS
MAKE FOR MORE ABORTIONS?
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THE SOCIOLOGY OF HEALTH HAS MANY PUZZLES OF
NEEDS TYPE COUNTRIES WHERE PERSONS HAVE THE
MOST SEXUAL PARTNERS, ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST
INCIDENCE OF SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS AND
UNPLANNED PREGNANCIES Wellings, The Lancet,
November 4, 2006
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WHATEVER HAPPENED TO MODELS PUZZLE THAT WHEREAS
THE POPULATION OF THE NETHERLANDS IS RELATIVELY
TOLERANT OF MIGRANTS, IN THE NETHERLANDS
SELF-EMPLOYMENT OF MIGRANTS IS RELATIVELY
LOW? Model, Martens, Silberman, Veenman,
Immigrant incorporation in France, England and
the Netherlands paper presented at RC28 in
Libourne in 2000
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PROBLEMS PRECEDE THEORIES PUZZLES ARE ANCHORS
FOR COLEMANS BOAT MACROPUZZLES MAKE IT POSSIBLE
TO MOVE FROM MACRO- TO MICROTHEORIES THE HEAVIEST
ANCHORS ARE MICRO-MACRO PARADOXES
31
CRIMINOLOGISTS ARE LESS CRIMINAL THAN THE REST,
SO HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT MORE CRIMINOLOGISTS
IN A COUNTRY GOES HAND IN HAND WITH MORE CRIME?
DO CRIMINOLOGISTS THROUGH WISHY-WASHY ADVICE
INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT FIRST-OFFENDERS BECOME
RECIDIVISTS?
32
DO NOT THROW OUT MICRO-MACRO PARADOXES AS
ECOLOGICAL FALLACIES OR AGGREGATIVE
FALLACIES THINK UP HYPOTHESES ABOUT CONTEXTUAL
EFFECTS Robinson, Ecological correlations and
behavior of individuals, 1950
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NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE HYPOTHESES WITH
CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS CATHOLICS
ARE MORE AGAINST ABORTION IN COUNTRIES WITH A
HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF CATHOLICS IF THERE ARE MORE
MIGRANTS IN A COUNTRY, THE PERCENT OF
SELF-EMPLOYED AMONG MIGRANTS IS HIGHER
34
CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS AND THE COLEMAN BOAT
MACRO-Y
MACRO-X
MICRO-X
MICRO-Y
COLEMANS BOAT DOES NOT NEED REINFORCEMENT OF THE
HULL COLEMANS BOAT NEEDS ANCHORS, SAILS AND
PEDALS FOR THE RAFT
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SOME PARADIGMS IN SOCIOLOGY COMPRISE, APART FROM
A HOST OF EXPLAINED REGULARITIES, ONE
HIGHER-LEVEL AXIOM AND SEVERAL LOWER-LEVEL
HYPOTHESES LENSKI CALLS THEM MULTI-LAYERED
THEORIES
Lenski, Rethinking macrosociological theory,
1988
37
TWO EXAMPLES OF MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES IN
SOCIOLOGY OUTSIDE RAT LENSKI-NOLAN ECOLOGICAL
EVOLUTIONISM THE DURKHEIM-LAZARSFELD-HIRSCHI
INTEGRATION HYPOTHESIS
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RAT MAY BECOME MULTI-LAYERED, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
OFTEN IS NOT RATS QUEST FOR MECHANISMS
SIDETRACKS DIJKSTERHUIS, MECHANIZATION OF THE
WORLD PICTURE, 1950, compare HEDSTRÖM AND
SWEDBORG, SOCIAL MECHANISMS, 1998, p. 2, n. 4
39
A HIGHER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS CORRECTS A LOWER-LEVEL
HYPOTHESIS RAT DOES NOT ALWAYS APPRECIATE THIS
Popper, The aim of science, 1957, p. 32
compare HEDSTRÖM, PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL
SOCIOLOGY, p. 31, law-covering explanations do
not allow of exceptions, explanations by
mechanisms do allow exceptions
40
MOVING FROM A LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS TO A
HIGHER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS AMOUNTS TO
RE-INTERPRETING AN INHERENT PROPERTY AS A
RELATIONAL PROPERTY Popper, Aim of science,
1957, p. 29
41
NEED HAD A MULTI-LAYERED THEORY IN 2004, VAN
TUBERGEN IN 2005 BUT DID THEIR HIGHEST-LEVEL
HYPOTHESIS CORRECT LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES? De
Graaf, Need Ultee, Leaving the church in the
Netherlands, a comprehensive explanation of three
empirical regularities, 2004 F. VAN TUBERGEN,
THE INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN A CROSS-NATIONAL
PERSPECTIVE, 2005
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HOW TO GO BEYOND THE IDEA OF CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS AND MAKE MULTI-LAYERED
THEORIES? DISTINGUISH TYPES OF CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES AND SPELL OUT A THEORY COMPRISING
HIGHER- AND LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES AND AUXILIARY
ASSUMPTIONS
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WHICH AXIOMS AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS DOES THE
RAT PARADIGM HAVE? BECKER, A TREATISE ON THE
FAMILY, 1981, p. viii THIS VOLUME USES THE
ASSUMPTIONS OF MAXIMIZING BEHAVIOR, STABLE
PREFERENCES, AND EQUILIBRIUM IN IMPLICIT OR
EXPLICIT MARKETS
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BECKER HERE STATES THE AXIOM THAT INDIVIDUALS ARE
RATIONAL AND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT THEY
ACT ON MARKETS HOWEVER, NOT ONLY MARKETS
COORDINATE INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR AUXILIARY
ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT ANCILLARY ASSUMPTIONS
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RATIONAL CHOICE SOCIOLOGY IS A MISNOMER THE
PROPER NAME IS MARKET SOCIOLOGY THIS IS NOW
RECOGNIZED IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION ALBERT,
MARKTSOZIOLOGIE UND ENTSCHEIDUNGSLOGIK, 1967
Iannaccone, Voodoo economics?, 1995, p. 76
an application of rational choice theory -
the religious market alternative to
secularization theory -
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HOW TO EXPAND MARKET SOCIOLOGY? RAT IS IN NEED OF
A THEORY OF SOCIETY WHICH GOES BEYOND THE
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT MARKETS ARE THE ONLY
INSTITUTION COORDINATING HUMAN ACTION
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HEILBRONER AND THE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL
GOODS MARKETS HUNGER AVERSION
HIERARCHIES PAIN AVERSION COMMUNITIES DERISION
AVERSION FREE AFTER HEILBRONER, THE WORLDLY
PHILOSOPHERS, 1953
49
SO, APART FROM MARKET SOCIOLOGY THERE
IS ORGANIZATIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND CULTURAL
SOCIOLOGY THE OPPOSITION BETWEEN RATIONAL
ACTION AND NORM-GUIDED BEHAVIOR IS FALSE
50
VAN DEN DOEL AND THE PRODUCTION OF COLLECTIVE
GOODS BY SOCIETAL POLITIES WISE BENEVOLENT
DICTATOR TWO INDEPENDENT PERSONS A
POPULATION MAKING
UNANIMOUS DECISIONS MAJORITY
DECISIONS VAN DEN DOEL, DEMOCRACY AND WELFARE
ECONOMICS, 1978
51
BLAU AND THE PRODUCTION OF SOCIAL RELATIONS
(MARRIAGES, CRIMES) BY PREFERENCES AND
OPPORTUNITIES SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS ON ONE
PARAMETER OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE MOBILITY IN TIME
ALONG ONE PARAMETER OF SOCIAL STRCUTRE
CROSS-CUTTING PARAMETERS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE
CONCENTRIC CIRCLES OF PARAMETERS OF SOCIAL
STRUCTURE BLAU, CROSSCUTTING SOCIAL CIRCLES, 1984
52
IMPROVING AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MACRO
OUTCOMES MARKETS OPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA OR
COMPETITIVE EXCESSES? HIERARCHIES CRIME-FREE
STREETS OR BUREAUCRATIC PATCHWORK? COMMUNITIES
SHARED COSINESS OR PRESTIGIOUS LEADERS WITH
SECRETE VICES?
ELIAS, UEBER DEN PROZESS DER ZIVILISATION, 1939
LIPSKY, STREET LEVEL BUREAUCRACY, 1980
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NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT MARKET FREEDOMS USING OR NOT USING THE
RIGHT TO ABORTION EQUAL RIGHTS TO A JOB
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NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN ALSO HAVE AUXILIARY
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HIERARCHIES MORE OR LESS
LIBERAL STATE LAWS ABOUT ABORTION STRICTER OR
LESS STRICT LAWS ABOUT ENTERING A STATE
56
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN HAVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT COMMUNITIES TOO RELIGIOUS PERSONS ARE MORE
AGAINST ABORTION IN COUNTRIES WITH MORE RELIGIOUS
PERSONS MIGRANTS ARE MORE LIKELY SELF-EMPLOYED IN
COUNTRIES WITH MORE MIGRANTS
57
NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN PROPOSE MULTI-INSTITUTION
EXPLANATIONS, AND THEREFORE GO BEYOND BECKERIAN
MARKET SOCIOLOGY OF THE FAMILY AND STARKIAN
MARKET SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION DO NEED AND VAN
TUBERGEN HAVE ALTERNATIVE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
ON MACRO OUTCOMES? STARK FINKE, ACTS OF FAITH,
2000
58
THAT WAS MY LONG ANSWER TO THE RAT-QAD RELATION
QUESTION
THE QAD OF NEED AND VAN TUBERGEN IS NOT VARIABLE
SOCIOLOGY THEIR QAD ACTUALLY GOES BEYOND RAT
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THUS RUNS MY RESURRECTION OF THE RAT PARADIGM BY
WAY OF BETTER AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GO BEYOND THE RAT AXIOM THAT PEOPLE
ACT RATIONALLY?
61
COMPARE HEDSTRÖM, DISSECTING THE SOCIAL, ON THE
PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY, 2005 WITH
LENSKI, ECOLOGICAL-EVOLUTIONARY THEORY,
PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS, 2005
62
HEDSTRÖM DISCUSSES THE PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL
SOCIOLOGY WITHOUT ALWAYS STATING THEM
CLEARLY LENSKI ENUMERATES THE PRINCIPLES OF
ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM BEFORE APPLYING THEM
HEDSTRÖM HAS ONE EMPIRICAL APPLICATION, LENSKI
FOUR
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ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM CONTAINS THE ASSUMPTION
THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY, AND IS MUCH RICHER IN
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS AND MACRO-EFFECTS
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HOW TO IMPROVE ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM? ARE THERE
ALTERNATIVES TO THE AXIOM THAT PERSONS ACT
RATIONALLY?
65
THE FIRST ALTERNATIVE AXIOM HOW DO PERSONS MAKE
COGNITIONS COHERENT? THEY CHANGE COGNITIONS BUT
MAINTAIN THEIR WORLDVIEW ACTIONS OF INDIVIDUALS
ARE ADEQUATE TO THEIR WORLDVIEW Weber,
Protestantische Ethik, 1905 cf. Webbink
Ultee, Orthodox Protestantism and vaccination in
the Netherlands unorthodox questions about
modernization, markets, and secularization,
forthcoming
66
TO ANSWER MACRO QUESTIONS, APART FROM A THEORY OF
INDIVIDUAL ACTION, A THEORY IS NEEDED ABOUT
INDIVIDUAL THINKING PEOPLE DO ALWAYS NOT THINK
LOGICALLY THEY OFTEN THINK IN ANALOGIES
67
THE SECOND ALTERNATIVE AXIOM HUMAN BEINGS FIRST
THINK IN ANALOGIES, THEN LOGICALLY EVOLUTIONARY
PSYCHOLOGIST PINKER, THE BLANK SLATE, 2002, AND
EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGIST DAWKINS, THE GOD DELUSION,
2006
THREE TYPES OF ANALOGIES BIOMORPHIC MODELS
SOCIOMORPHIC MODELS TECHNOMORPHIC
MODELS TOPITSCH, VOM URSPRUNG UND ENDE DER
METAPHYSIK, 1958
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LENSKI TOPITSCH TYPE OF THOUGHT
SOCIETY MODEL HUNTING AND GATHERING BIOMORPHI
C SIMPLE HORTICULTURE BIOMORPHIC ADVANCED
HORTICULTURE TECHNOMORPHIC AGRARIAN SOCIOMOR
PHIC EARLY INDUSTRIAL MACHINES LATER
INDUSTRIAL COMPUTERS Moor, Ultee Need,
Analogies, subsistence technologies, and
(non)moral supreme creator gods forthcoming
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IN THIS WAY AN EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY ARISES,
SURPASSING RATIONAL CHOICE ECONOMICS AND
BOUNDED RATIONALITY PSYCHOLOGY
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DID I SINK THE COLEMAN? COLEMANS BOAT WAS
ALREADY MAKING WATER BUT DID I PRESENT AN
AIRWORTHY PLANE? RAT-QAD VERSUS EVOLUTIONARY
SOCIOLOGY AS A THEME FOR 25 YEARS ICS!
72
THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE AT www.socsci.ru.n
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