NOAA Climate Research: Climate Variability

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NOAA Climate Research Climate Variability
NOAA Research Overview
Climate Variability
California floods during 1998 El Nino
Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935
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Mission-critical research
Mission-critical Research

• Climate variability research is central to NOAAs
  mission
• to provide
• Environmental assessments
• and predictions
• Stewardship of marine resources
• Questions public and decision-makers ask NOAA
• Are we likely to see more or fewer storms with
  El Niño?
• How unusual is this drought, and what are its
  causes?
• What is the precipitation outlook for next
  season?

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Support for Observing Systems
NOAAs global and regional observing systems are
crucial in supporting monitoring,
interpretations, and predictions of climate
variability.
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Primary Research Foci
NOAA Climate Variability Priorities

• Major areas for near-term emphasis (next 2-5
  years)
• Improve predictions of major modes of climate
  variability.
• Increase understanding and capabilities to
  predict short-term climate variability,
  decadal-to-centennial variability, and their
  inter-relationships.
• Develop climate prediction capabilities for
  high-impact events.
• Establish quantitative estimates for risks of
  abrupt change.
• Develop monitoring/forecast products for regional
  applications and risk reduction.

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Core Activities
NOAA Core Components Climate Variability
Research

• Office of Global Programs
• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction
  (CDEP)
• Climate Variability and Predictability Programs
  (CLIVAR)
• Global Water Cycle Program/GAPP
• Climate Observations and Services Program (COSP)
• Weather-Climate Connection
• Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
• NOAA Research and Services

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CDEP
Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction
(CDEP)

• Objectives
• Contribute to the development and implementation
  of a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere forecast
  system based on dynamical models
• Foster the development of new prediction and
  application techniques
• Focus
• Seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction research
  and applications
• Method
• Sponsor a sustained critical mass of focused
  applied research and development at a few
  institutions - the Applied Research Centers
  (ARCs).
• Support the International Research Institute for
  Climate Prediction (IRI), which provides
  international climate assessments and predictions.

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CDEP
CDEP Product Example
JAS
OND
Web tool enabling real-time comparisons of Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts by
different methods for three month seasons
July-September (JAS) October-December (OND)
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CDEP Deliverables
CDEP Deliverables

• Improved seasonal forecast systems through
  advances in ocean data assimilation, seasonal
  diagnostics and regional modeling capabilities.
• Data sets describing the state of the global
  ocean to initialize climate variability and
  change models.
• Ensemble climate predictions from multiple
  models.
• Model-based approaches for developing climate
  forecast products for regional applications and
  risk reduction.
• Decision support tools to enable quantitative
  assessments of regional implications of global
  climate variability on time scales from seasonal
  to centennial.
• International climate assessments and predictions
  through the IRI.

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CLIVAR
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)

• Objectives
• Understand mechanisms producing different
  patterns of natural climate variations and their
  global and regional manifestations.
• Assess predictability of these climate modes
  through observational and modeling studies.
• Foci
• El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific
  Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation
  (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tropical
  Atlantic Variability, and North American monsoon
  system.
• Abrupt climate change (Atlantic thermohaline
  circulation).
• Method
• Sponsor investigator research/observational
  experiments in key regions CLIVAR-Pacific,
  CLIVAR-Atlantic, CLIVAR-Americas.
• Support interagency national (USCLIVAR) and
  international programs.
• Implement Climate Model Process Teams (CPTs) to
  develop and improve climate model representations
  of physical processes.

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Indian Ocean warming
Research Example CLIVAR
Wintertime Response of Climate Model to warm
Indian Ocean
Temperature
Precipitation
Models responses to warm Indian Ocean reinforces
La Niña tendency for dry, warm conditions in SE
and along east coast, as well as part of the
northern plains. Probable contributing factor to
U.S. and SW Asia (Afghan) droughts.
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CLIVAR deliverables
CLIVAR Deliverables

• Improved climate prediction and projection
  capability for global climate variability and
  change on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and
  centennial time scales.
• Major contributions to the sustained global
  climate observing system, particularly for ocean
  observations.
• Data sets from process field campaigns.
• Physical descriptions of major processes to
  reduce uncertainties.
• Assessments of decadal predictability of climate
  modes.
• Accelerated improvements in modeling of physical
  processes through the CPTs. Initial efforts
  will focus on high priority areas cloud - water
  vapor feedbacks, and Arctic snow and ice
  feedbacks.

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Water Cycle Program
Global Water Cycle Program/GAPP

• Objectives
• Develop a capability to predict water cycle
  variables
• on monthly-to-seasonal time scales.
• Interpret climate predictions for water
  management.
• Assess risks to water systems through improved
• climate projections.
• Foci
• Impact of land surface processes (vegetation and
  soil moisture) on predictability of summer
  precipitation.
• Initial focus on Americas, GEWEX Americas
  Prediction Project (GAPP).
• Method
• Sponsor investigator research/ modeling/
  observational experiments.
• Coordinated with larger national and
  international programs in the Global Water and
  Energy Cycle Experiment (GEWEX).

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Research example Water Cycle Program

Research Example Water Cycle Program
Impact of Land Surface Processes (Vegetation and
Soil Moisture) on predictability of summer
precipitation
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Water cycle Products/deliverables
Global Water Cycle/GAPP Deliverables

• Assessment of risks and vulnerabilities for river
  basins arising from variations and changes in
  the water cycle.
• Improved experimental forecasts of precipitation
  and water cycle extremes on seasonal time scales.
• Reduced uncertainty in climate model projections
  of long-term changes in the water cycle
  components.
• Closure of the water budget globally and
  regionally over all time scales.
• Integrated water cycle data products (satellite,
  in-situ) such as an integrated water vapor
  product.
• Surface water cycle in-situ data sets and
  assimilation products for the validation of
  regional and globalclimate models.

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SEARCH
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

• Objectives
• Identify causes for observed multi-decadal trend
  of interrelated changes in the Arctic
  (atmosphere, ice, ocean, land) - termed Unaami.
• Clarify potential for feedbacks (albedo, fresh
  water export,
• release of carbon from permafrost/methane
  hydrates)
• Determine implications for abrupt changes.
• Assess impacts to ecosystem and society.
• Foci
• Interannual to decadal time scales.
• Arctic/subarctic ocean fluxes relationship to
  thermohaline variability.
• Expand on limited observations to track key
  variables
• incorporate into models.
• Method
• Implement and sustain environmental observations.
• Data analysis and research.
• Coordinated with other agencies in SEARCH, as
  well as larger national and international
  programs in Arctic research.

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SEARCH Products
Examples Search Products
Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Surface Interactions
and Feedbacks over Arctic
Prototype Observing Array
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SEARCH Products/deliverables
SEARCH Deliverables

• Temperature, radiation and ice data to support
  analyses of ice/albedo feedback, ocean
  thermohaline circulation, Arctic shipping routes,
  marine mammal management.
• Atmospheric data to enhance model physics and
  improve prediction of Arctic Oscillation, US
  temperature and hydrologic forecasts
• Long-term data to detect decadal changes,
  demonstrate links to mid-latitudes

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Weather-Climate Connection
Weather-Climate Connection

• Objectives
• Improve understanding and predictions of
  connections between climate variations and high
  impact weather phenomena (droughts, floods)
• Improve regional weather and climate
  observational capabilities
• Develop stronger link between climate research
  and user needs
• Infuse new science and technology into NOAA
  operational products
• Foci
• Improve predictions on weekly to seasonal time
  scales.
• Initial focus on tropical-midlatitude
  interactions over the Pacific and their regional
  impacts on U.S.
• Method
• Intensive observational, diagnostic, and modeling
  studies at regional scales to assess
  predictability and realize the potential for
  operational prediction.
• Research coordinated with services (NWS) and end
  users.

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Research example Wx-Clim. Connection
Research Example Weather-Climate Connection
40 of rain/ 7 days
Pineapple Express

MJO

• Where will storm track be for the next few weeks?
  
• When will an arctic outbreak affect the east
  coast?
• When will the rain (drought, heat wave, etc.)
  end?
• How will a climate shift affect the weather in a
  particular region?

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Weather-Climate Connection deliverables
Weather-Climate Connection Deliverables

• Improved regional forecast capabilities of U.S.
  temperatures and precipitation from a week to a
  season.
• Climate prediction capabilities for high-impact
  events, including droughts and major floods.
• Enhanced data sets and analyses to identify and
  interpret weather-climate connections between the
  tropics and mid-latitudes.

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Research Laboratories
NOAA Research and Services

• Objectives
• Carry out long-term research central to NOAAs
  mission
• Provide sustained support for NOAA climate
  observations and services (e.g., NWS Climate
  Prediction Center)
• Deliver products for decision support
• Regular and timely provision of climate obs. and
  predictions
• Foci
• Develop national capabilities to describe,
  interpret, and predict climate variations,
  emphasizing major climate phenomena such as ENSO,
  droughts, and floods.
• Provide and interpret oceanographic data
• Prediction of the ocean environment on time
  scales from days to decades.
• Provide continuous monitoring and regular
  predictions of climate, emphasizing weekly to
  seasonal-to-interannual time scales.

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Research product example extreme events

Research Example ENSO Effects on Precipitation
Observed Rainfall (Oct. 2001-May)
Model-derived Seasonal Precipitation
probabilities for New Mexico
La Niña
El Niño
La Niña Composite (Oct.-May)
The model results illustrate how wet La Niña
conditions or dry El Niño conditions in New
Mexico are both possible, but unlikely.
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Drought predictions - short-term outlook
Operational Example Drought Outlook

• The outlook over the next few months

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Drought predictions - short-term outlook
Hazards Assessment
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Research lab deliverables
NOAA Research and Services Products/Deliverables

• Develop near real-time attribution for the causes
  of extreme events.
• Climate probability forecast capabilities,
  including risks of high-impact events.
• Improved hazard assessments/outlooks for U.S.
• Diagnostic tools that enable rapid
  intercomparisons of models and observations for
  climate interpretations and predictions.
• Regular delivery of climate analyses and
  forecasts from intraseasonal to interannual time
  scales.