Observing Climate Variability and Change

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Observing ClimateVariability and Change Thomas
R. Karl National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration National Environmental Satellite
Data and Information Service National Climatic
Data Center Asheville, NC 28801-5001, USA
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1) How has the climate changed or varied?
PHYSICAL
PROCESS
2) How well do we understand the climate system ?
3) What are the causes of climate change and
variability?
4) How can we characterize the impacts of climate
change?
BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES
CLIMATE CHANGE FORCINGS
IMPACTS
CROP
YIELD




COASTAL
HABITAT
FOREST MIGRATION
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• How significant are the uncertainties?
• State and Forcings Variables
• Few have quantitative confidence intervals
  (CIs) (including time- dependent biases) e.g.,
  global surface temperature, CO2
• Most CIs do not include time-dependent biases
• For many, CIs are uncertain or unknown
• Why?
• Adhering to climate observing principles and
  guidelines still does not have a high priority

Smoothed annual anomalies of global combined
land-surface air and sea surface temperatures
(oC).
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The Climate Observing System What is needed?

• Adoption of ten principles for climate monitoring
  
• More comprehensive global observations---
  Prioritization concept
• Improved global telecommunications
• Better use of data more products
• Critical need for system monitoring and
  oversight responsibility --- Examples

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• The Climate Observing System What is needed?
• Adherence to Ten Principles for both space- and
  surface-based observations
• 1. Management of Network Change
• 2. Parallel Testing
• 3. Metadata
• 4. Data Quality and Continuity
• 5. Environmental Assessments
• The international framework for sharing data
  is vital.

6. Historical Significance 7. Complementary
Data 8. Climate Requirements 9. Continuity of
Purpose 10. Data and Metadata Access
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Definition of Terms
Impact potential for reducing uncertainties
Time to Pay-Off the time required for an impact
to be realized, i.e., upgrading an existing
system or implementing a new system
Feasibility readiness to implement the
observing system considering technical aspects
and resource requirements
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Example Demonstrating Prioritization Concept
A Global Network of Reference Quality Radiosonde
Sites
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Temperature Indicators Climate Impacts
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Temperature Indicators Climate Understanding
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Hydrological Indicators Climate Impacts
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Hydrologic Indicators Climate Understanding
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What are the causes of climate change and
variability
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• The Climate Observing System What is needed?
• Observing Systems Oversight and System
  Monitoring Capability
• Establish climate requirements for observing
  systems (atmosphere, ocean,
  terrestrial, cryosphere), such as weather
  services do today
• Includes instruments on satellites
• Spatial and temporal sampling, etc.
• Reprocessing and reanalysis
• Tracks the performance of the observations, the
  gathering of the data, and the processing
  systems
• Resources and influence to fix problems

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Real-time Network Performance Monitoring
U.S. Climate Reference Network
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Observing and Data System Deficiencies

• Five different research teams using
  independent methods to identify
  time- dependent biases in the tropospheric
  temperature records

TeamsNOAA GFDL NCDCUniv. of AlabamaUK
Meteorological OfficeTexas A M University)
Percent of Teams Identifying Biases
Courtesy Free et al(in review BAMS)
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The Climate Observing System What is needed?

• Adoption of ten principles for climate monitoring
  
• More comprehensive global observations
• Improved global telecommunications
• Better use of data more products
• Critical need for system monitoring and
  oversight responsibility

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Some Variables are Effectively Monitored for Trend
Scripps Institute of Oceanography NOAA
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Observing and Data System Deficiencies

• Impact of Satellite Orbital Drift
• Will be fixed on US NPOESS (2009)

Changes in orbits and equator crossing times of
satellites are aliased onto the diurnal cycle,
requiring corrections
Ascending minus descending temperatures MSU2 JJA
1989-91 from NOAA 11
MSU channel 2 temperatures over land, from Wentz
(black lower) and Christy-Spencer (red lower) and
difference (top).
Diurnal corrections required for each satellite.
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Observing and Data System Deficiencies
Courtesy F. Wentz

• Effect of Calibration Target Correction on MSU
  Channel 2