Stability in Cold War Africa

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Stability in Cold War Africa

• External
• Colonial Interests and Involvement
• Superpower Competition
• Pan-African
• The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Pledge
• Respect Colonial Borders
• Non-interference
• Domestic
• Authoritarian Regimes
• Reasonable Economic Growth (1960s and 1970s).
• Result Relative Stability in Africa
• Very Mearsheimer-esque

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Anarchy in Post Cold War Africa

• External Withdrawal of US and Soviet Support
• Regional Very Weak Regional Institutions
• Domestic
• Collapse of State Authority and Transitions to
  New Political Regimes.
• Economic CollapseNegative Per Capita GDP Growth
  during 1980s and 1990s.
• Emergence of Pervasive Conflict.
• Also Very Mearsheimer-esque

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Three Paths To Stability

• Regional Integration
• OAU, Economic Community of West African States
  (ECOWAS)
• External Intervention
• Internal Balance of Power

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Zaire The Mobutu Regime

• Mobutu the Dictator, 1965-1990
• US Support as Bulwark Against Socialism in
  Africa.
• End of Cold War Ends Support
• Economic Collapse
• GDP growth negative since 1989, estimated at -8.0
  percent in 1992.
• Political Collapse

Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, or, The
all-conquering warrior who, because of his
endurance and inflexible will to win, will go
from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his
wake
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War in the Democratic Republic of Congo

• Precipitating Causes Lie in 1994 Rwandan
  Conflict.
• Refugees and Hutu Extremists in Zaire
• Rwanda and Uganda join Forces with Zairian Tutsis
  to Overthrow Mobutu

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• Install Laurent Kabila as President of Democratic
  Republic of Congo
• Kabila Alienates Domestic Support, and Does Not
  Control Hutu Extremists
• Rwanda and Uganda Begin to Support Congolese
  Union for Democracy (RCD) Against Kabila

Laurent Kabila
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• Angola Supports Kabila
• Involved in Civil War with UNITA
• Mobutu had supported UNITA, thus Angolan
  Government Supports Kabila and UNITA supports the
  RCD

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• Namibia Allied with Angola, thus Fighting in
  support of Kabila
• Zimbabwe Rivalry with Rwanda and Uganda, thus
  Fighting in support of Kabila

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• 700,000 Refugees
• 2 Million Dead (?)
• Ceasefire, July 1999
• UN Peacekeepers Put in Place (5,537)
• Fighting Continues

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Bigger Point 1

• Collapse of the Cold War Created Anarchic
  Environment in Large Parts of Africa.
• Lack Effective Regional Institutions.
• Conducive to Balance of Power Politics.
• Increasing Importance of the United Nations.

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Bigger Point 3

• Mearsheimer Right, but for the Wrong Continent?
• In the Absence of the Liberal Conditions
• Prosperity
• Representative Democracy
• Institutions
• The End of the Cold War has Ushered in a Period
  of Anarchy in African Politics.
• What Can Be Done?

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Finally, Where Was the UN?

• During the War, Role Restricted to Humanitarian
  Aid
• Since the War, Involved in Peacekeeping and
  Peacemaking
• What About Rwanda?
• Implications for Liberal Vision?