Heat Waves and Human Health Mitigation Measures

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Heat Waves and Human HealthMitigation Measures

• Balatonföldvár, 5 September 2003
  Tanja Cegnar

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Thermal environment plays an important role in
human health and well being. Extremes in
temperature can cause physiological disturbance
and organ damage, leading to illness and death.
The increase in mortality and morbidity during
hot weather in cities with temperature climate
can be significant. Summer 2003!!!

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International agencies (WHO, WMO, UNEP) some
years ago have decided to promote and financially
support Show case projects dealing with the
impact of extreme heat events on human health.
(WMO WHO expert group, WMO TD No. 822, WCASP
42, 98)City selection criteria

• Over a million inhabitants
• Irregular heat waves
• Meteorological and mortality/morbidity data for
  at least 10 years
• Local interest and implementation capability

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EU Commission PHEWE PROJECT

• Budapest
• Rome (Show case city)
• Paris
• Barcelona
• London

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Mitigation measures in ancient Rome? The
seasonal exodus of the rich from cities to the
cleaner and more comfortable environment occurred
also in ancient Rome. During height of the summer
Rome was notorious for its unhealthy conditions.
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Facts

• Most casualties among people above 65
• In hot climate adaptations in lifestyle,
  physiological acclimatization and adoption of
  particular mental approach
• Cultural and social adjustments, including design
  of houses
• Individuals with a low adaptive capability suffer
  first and foremost from heat load of any
  magnitude
• It appears that virtually all causes of death
  increase under stressful weather
• Individual lifestyle, clothing habits,
  occupational conditions influence exposure levels
• Heat stress can be aggravated by inappropriate
  behaviour
• Distinction should be made between the heat
  stress for a population and that for individual

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Heat waves present special problems in urban
areas because of the retention of heat by
buildings, if ventilation for cooling at night is
inadequate.

• Early behavioural signs of prolonged heat
  stress in densely populated areas include
  discomfort, social intolerance, irritability,
  industrial accidents.

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What have we learned in Rome?

• Importance of long set of data
• Standardisation of data
• The most difficult part of each project are good
  intervention measures
• Forecast skills
• Representative data
• High standard deviation within oppressive air mass

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The most impressive heat wave in Rome beside the
ones in 1983, 1994 and 2003
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City structureCustoms/habits
Climate
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• Study each particular case, analyse in details
  some of the heat waves in the past
• Develop predicting algorithms on historical data
• Choose thresholds, ratio false alarms missed
  heat waves
• Adapt common intervention strategies to Budapest,
  specific ones to be determined
• Make the best us of the already existing
  structures and potentials
• Estimate costs of intervention measures

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Prediction algorithms

• Based on historical data
• Including only predicted weather elements
• Prediction skills
• Input data should be for the same site as
  historical data - if not check represetativnes
  and provide for a statistical correction if
  necessary

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Optional predicting parameters

• day in the season
• day in sequence
• temperature (also minimum!)/ perceived
  temperature or any other measure based on heat
  budget models
• humidity
• wind
• cloudiness
• sunshine (duration, global radiation)
• selection based on statistical analysis

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Actions to be taken

• At starting point
• During heat wave
• Maintenance
• Long-term

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Before starting study details of

• climate,
• available historical data forecasts
• population,
• social structure,
• what is already in place for such purpose,
• identify the most vulnerable groups,
• structure of heat island,
• public health care structure,
• political perception,
• state of the art - awareness
• media - co-operative, interested ?
• partners?

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Beginning

• Press conference to present the project,
  intervention measures, communication channels
  (different for different groups)
• Citys web page on HHWWS
• Promotional and educational material (brochures,
  video clips, articles, ),
• Introduction of partners

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Media have the power to educate and inform, and
they will play an extremely important role in the
implementation phase of the HHWWS
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During heat wave

• Not only warning, but also recommendation and
  help!
• Warnings/advice via channels media, use health
  and meteorological infrastructure,
• Structures to be involved police, health
  organisations, volunteers, opening
  air-conditioned halls for everybody,
• Recommendation about food, drinks, clothing, time
  table activities, ventilation, areas in the city
  and neighbourhood, ...

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Special groups

• Children,
• Seniors, handicapped,
• Patients,
• Homeless people
• Particular measures for each of these groups,
  different channels of communication, different
  measures
• BUT General discomfort present, everybody could
  take advantage of good piece of advice

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Dont forget tourists, sportsmen, heat load in
public transportation vehicles!
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US experience

• Media announcements
• Buddy system
• Heat line (free number for advice)
• Home visits
• Nursing and personal care boarding
• halt of utility service suspensions
• Increased medical emergency stuffing
• Daytime outreach to the homeless

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It is extremely important to give the population
all the necessary information when the heat load
will increase over the threshold and how to
act.The information should be clear concrete
recommendations and advice should be given,
without inducing panics and should reach
everybody in the city, also tourists and
occasional visitors.
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Media are the most efficient way to reach the
whole population.
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Maintenance

• Refresh memory at the beginning of the season
  each year
• Continue with education process
• Keep media interested - press communications at
  each event,
• Performance assessment
• Science articles
• Efficiency assessment in number of lives and life
  quality
• Cost benefit analysis

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Long-term measures

• Education
• Rise the awareness
• City architecture and city structure (green
  areas, air circulation, materials, water bodies,
  energy consumption, take into account
  interactions treesallergies)
• Keep political interest vivid

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Make the best use of knowledge of
urban climatology!
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Who is taking the responsibilities?How are they
distributed and co-ordination? Who is able to
implement HHWWS measures?Who is interested in
HHWWS?Who is gaining, who could lose?
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Think about future!

• Extremes are projected to get worse (IPCC)
• Extremes are expected to be more frequent (WMO)
• Higher maximum air temperatures and more hot days
  over nearly all land areas are very likely
• Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land
  areas

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Impacts (crucial variability, extremes)

• Initial impact effects
• Expected adaptation
• Residual net impacts
• Depend on
• Exposure to extreme events
• Adaptive capacity

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Role of nonclimatic factors!We can not change
climate, but we can change our behavioural
patterns, buildings, citys structure,...Danger/
impacts depend on ability to adapt!Tasks

• Reduce vulnerability
• Relate to existing management processes
• Incorporate in citys development initiatives