Your Health and a Changing Climate

1
Your Health and a Changing Climate

• Thames Region Ecological Association
• University of Western Ontarios Faculty of
  Education

2
Climate Change and Air Quality Impacts

• How significant is climate change and air quality
  as a human health issue in southwestern
  Ontario/Canada?
• What are the key health risks that require an
  effective adaptive response?
• How adaptive is the health care system to the
  risks associated with climate change and air
  quality?

3
Climate Change and Air Quality Impacts

• What role can health impacts play in
  informing/educating the Canadian public on
  climate change and air quality?
• What key mitigation and adaptation measures
  should Canadians be implementing?
• To what extent are climate change and air quality
  separate issues?

4
Fossil Fuel Use
Energy Production and Use
Emissions
Atmospheric Issues
ACID RAIN SMOG CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDOUS
AIR POLLUTANTS
NOX VOCs SO2 N2O CH4 CO2 PARTICULATE MATTER
TOXICS
COAL OIL NATURAL GAS OTHER
Limited emissions from various sources,
including biomass burning.
5
Meeting the Kyoto target is a major challenge for
Canada
Projected BAU emissions 809 Mt
Emissions in 2000 726 Mt
33
6
Kyoto and the Inevitability of Climate Change
The overwhelming majority of scientific experts,
whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties
exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced
climate change is inevitable. . The question is
not whether climate will change... but rather how
much... how fast, and where Robert Watson, Chair
of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague, November
2000
Adaptation is necessary More mitigation is
needed Co-benefits for air quality
Stabilization 40 Kyotos Needed
7
These changes will make the world MUCH, MUCH
warmer than during the past millennium

• 4-6oC for central and northern Canada
• 3-4oC along western and eastern coastlines
• 3-8oC in Ontario

5.8C
1.4C
8
Health Effects from Climate Change

• Direct
• Temperature Extremes
• Extreme Weather Events
• Indirect
• Vector-borne and Rodent-borne Diseases
• Air Quality and Indoor Environments
• Water-borne and Food-borne Diseases
• UV Radiation

9
Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more
frequent
Number of hot days above 30?C
10
Temperature Extremes

• Currently 19 - 40 deaths in Toronto due to heat
  during an average summer could exceed 150 during
  hot years
• Climate change would increase the frequency of
  hot days, (e.g., Toronto) leading to an increase
  in 239-835 heat-related deaths annually 171-447
  elderly in TNR by the mid 2020s
• 31 days over 30ºC in 2002, an average summer in
  2030

11
Extreme Weather Events
Injuries, illness and death caused by carbon
monoxide poisoning, hypothermia, house fires,
motor vehicle accidents, slips and falls,
chainsaw accidents, electrocution, falling ice,
food poisoning, flu epidemics, stress and violence
Saguenay Flood, 1996
Hurricane Hazel, 1954 81 Deaths, 2,000 evacuated,
hundreds homeless, 1 Billion damage
Ice Storm 1998 25 deaths, 60,000 injuries 2
Billion damages
12
Vector-borne and Rodent-borne Diseases

• West Nile Virus
• Malaria
• Dengue Fever
• Lyme Disease
• Hantavirus
• 2,000 Infected

13
Quantity/Quality of Water and Food

• Heat waves and droughts
• lower flows of water in lakes and rivers
• lead to water scarcity, poor water quality and
  may increase water-borne diseases
  (Cryptosporidium,Giardia)
• Heavy storms and floods
• surface water can be contaminated by storm sewer
  overflows
• (Pathogens from livestock sources and heavy
  rainfall/runoff linked to contamination of
  drinking water (e.g. Walkerton outbreak of E.
  coli O157)
• Hot weather
• can cause increased growth of micro-organisms and
  disease outbreaks at recreational beaches, as
  well as food poisoning from fish and shellfish

14
Seasonal Distribution of Confirmed Food Poisoning
Cases in Canada, 1995
15
UV-Radiation

• Warmer climate will encourage more outdoor
  activities (esp. among children) leading to more
  exposure to UV-B radiation
• Number of days with high/extreme UV has increased
  from 30-40 days in 1989 to 60 days by 1995
  (Toronto)
• Ozone layer will take 50 years to recover,
  leading to increased risk of skin cancer, eye
  disorders and impaired immune system mortality
  will peak in 2060

16
Air Quality and Local Meteorology
Year Advisories Days 1993 1
1 1994 2 6 1995
6 14 1996 3
5 1997 3 6 1998
3 8 1999 5
9 2000 3 4 2001
7 23 2002 10
27 2003 9 19
Influence of Hot Weather on O3
2002 14 days poor, 52 days moderate 2003 5
days poor, 67 days moderate, 34 days NA 2004 2
days poor, 43 days moderate, 6 days NA
17
Health Effects from Smog
In Toronto Annually

• 1,700 premature deaths
• 6,000 hospital admissions
• 1-10 Billion in costs across Ontario