Projection and Mitigation of Global Climate Change

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Projection and Mitigation of Global Climate Change
2
Review of last lecture

• 3 ways human activities affect the climate.
• Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4,
  N2O) since 1750 far exceed pre-industrial values
  determined from ice core measurements spanning
  the last 650,000 years, which is mainly caused by
  CO2 fossil fuel use. Lead to strong radiative
  heating.
• The developed countries and developing countries
  contribute almost equally to the emissions of
  GHGs.
• Observed change of mean air temperature, ocean
  temperature, melting of arctic sea ice, Greenland
  ice sheet, snow and glaciers, rising of sea
  level.
• Observed change of extreme events extreme
  precipitation events, heat waves, strongest
  hurricanes

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Global connections
4
The most common atmospheric circulation structure
H
L
Radiation Convection
Conduction
Cooling or No Heating
Heating
Greenhouse Gases Pollution
Clouds Precipitation (Latent heat)
Latent/Sensible
H
L
Biosphere Land/Ocean/Ice/Stratosphere Feedback

• Imbalance of heating
• Imbalance of temperature
• Imbalance of pressure
• ? Wind

5
Framework of Earth System Model
Atmosphere
Biogeochemistry
Coupler .
Sea Ice
Ocean
Land

• Include 5 components atmosphere, ocean, land,
  sea ice, biogeochemistry
• Based on the conservation laws of mass, energy,
  momentum, water vapor and other chemical species
  (e.g. CO2, CH4)
• Based on future assumptions of external forcing
  (GHG concentrations, solar variability,
  pollution, land use changes)

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Can the GCMs Reproduce the 20th Century
Temperature Trend?
The GCMs can reproduce the 20th century
temperature trend
The warming is caused by anthropogenic forcings!
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Simulations for Different Regions
Warming is caused by anthropogenic forcings
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Movie timeA global warning?
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Our choice of the future Emission scenarios
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Projected Change in Global Mean Temperature
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Global map of projected change Temperature
Largest warming over Arctic, larger over land
Precipitation Increase in tropics/poles,
decrease in mid-latitudes
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Projected change of sea ice and ocean
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Projected Change in Global Sea Level
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Number of Days over 100 oF
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Impacts on fresh water
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Impacts on ecosystems
4.0 oC
3.0 oC
Poison ivy loves CO2
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Abrupt climate change and tipping point Lesson
from Earths climate history
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Examples of tipping points
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Movie time!Six Degrees Could Change the World
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Mitigation of global climate change
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International Kyoto protocol

• Negotiated in 1997. Commits parties to
  internationally binding emission reduction
  targets.
• Common but differentiated responsibilities
• Specific reduction targets for developed
  countries
• Measures to slow the growth of emissions in
  developing countries
• Non-parties
• Canada
• USA
• Andorra
• South Sudan
• Palestine
• Vatican City

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Business Green Economy

• Sustainability
• Human rights and dignity
• Accountability
• Efficiency
• Investment in the future

Renewable energy, Sustainable transportation,
Green buildings, Energy-efficient industry and
carbon capture, Land management, afforestation,
waste management
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Green economy
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What can we do?

• The consumer-driven economy

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Summary

• Global climate models Earth system models (5
  components)
• Global climate models can reproduce the observed
  warming in the 20th century. The warming is
  largely caused by human activities.
• Projected change mean temperature (largest
  warming over Arctic, larger over land), mean
  precipitation, sea level, extreme temperature,
  extreme precipitation, fresh water, ecosystems
• Abrupt climate change and tipping points
• Future climate scenarios show that reducing
  greenhouse gas emissions can substantially
  mitigate warming in the latter half of this
  century.
• Mitigation International (Kyoto Protocol), Green
  economy (Renewable energy, Sustainable
  transportation, Green buildings, Energy-efficient
  industry and carbon capture, Land management,
  afforestation, waste management)
• We can make a difference by reducing waste of
  energy, food and other materials, and by
  purchasing environment-friendly products.

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Work cited

• http//intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building
  -ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but-sentiment-remains-
  strong/
• http//nimbuseco.com/2013/01/deforestation-and-pol
  lution-facts/
• http//greenbalkans.org/category.php?languageen_E
  Ncat_id63
• http//www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia
  /newsroom/releases/?cidnrcs142p2_011847
• http//www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-r
  ecord/Megan-Clark-presentation-20090526-generating
  -industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspx
• http//economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2
  005/09/the_consumer_dr.html
• http//nca2009.globalchange.gov/human-health
• http//yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-05
  64-112.pdf/file/EE-0564-112.pdf
• http//livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-chang
  e/scientists-warn-that-earth-is-close-to-climate-t
  ipping-point/
• http//www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/opinion/mystreet-dig
  ital-anthropology/
• http//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/FileWorld-airli
  ne-routemap-2009.png