Karl Stahlkopf

1
EPRIs ISO Membership Package
Power for a Digital Society

• Karl Stahlkopf
• Vice President, Power Delivery, EPRI
• University of Wisconsin
• October20, 2000

2
The Reliability Challenge

• Process becoming more complex
• Increasing bulk power transactions strain grid
  capacity
• Grid expansion is not keeping up with growth
• Incentives for expansion are lacking
• Infrastructure needs to be upgraded

3
Transactions Increasing Exponentially
TVA Interchange Transactions
4
Grid Expansion Not Keeping Up

• Transmission expansion is less than half of
  demand growth and getting worse
• Distribution construction has fallen 10 in real
  terms over last decade

5
U.S. Transmission 10-Yr Plans
Miles Added
Year
6
Background Problems Increasing

• 1965 November Northeast blackout
• 1977 July New York City blackout
• 1994 January WSCC breakup (Northridge
  earthquake)
• December WSCC breakup
• 1996 July 2 WSCC cascading outage
• August 10 WSCC cascading outage
• 1998 June MAPP breakup
• July Chicago (100,000 customers)
• July Midwest price spikes to 10,000 MWh
  
  December San Francisco tripoff
• 1999 July New York City (200,000 customers)
• July Chicago (100,000 customers)
• July Midwest price spikes to
  6,000 MWh
• August Chicago (Loop business
  district) 2000
  May PJM power voltage reductions and
  curtailments
  May New England
  price spikes to 6000 MWh
• June California outages and
  price increases

7
Rise of the Digital Economy

• Phase 1 -- Computers
• Phase 2 -- Embedded processors
• Now 30 times as many stand-alone chips as in
  computers
• Phase 3 -- Networks
• One million Web sites
• 200 million computers worldwide
• E-commerce 2 of American GDP

8
Challenges for Electric Power

• Quantity
• IT alone accounts for 10-13 U.S. electricity
  consumption
• 80 energy growth is being met by electricity
• Quality
• Grid delivers 3-nines reliability (99.9
  reliable)
• Microprocessors require 9-nines reliability
  (99.9999999)
• Even brief outages can cost a company millions

9
Rise of the Digital Economy
4
TkWh
2
1980
2000
2020
Demand for digital quality power is growing
rapidly
10
Two Reliability Goals

• Increase transmission capacity and enhance
  reliability to support a stable wholesale power
  market
• Upgrade distribution infrastructure to support
  integration of low-cost power from transmission
  system with new DR options

Dont try to Gold-Plate the Grid
11
The Effect in Silicon Valley

• The impact of momentary interruptions of power
  is extremely costly in terms of lost productivity
  and potentially damaged equipment at
  Oracle.Whether the electricity was free or cost
  three times as much would have absolutely no
  effect on the cost of our product.
• Mike Wallach
• What is self-sufficiency worth to us Oracle?
  Millions of dollars per hour.
• Jeff Byron
• Sun Microsystems has estimated that a blackout
  costs up to 1 million per minute
• Larry Owens, Silicon Valley Power

12
Consumer Response Market for Backup Power Takes
Off
1 MW Gen-Sets
32 Growth Rate Annually
Total Output
Units Ordered
13
EPRIs Response

• Short Term Form the Reliability Initiative
• Long Term Form the Consortium for Electrical
  Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society
  (CEIDS)

14
Reliability Initiative

• Approximately 5.7 million raised so far
• 40 utilities have signed agreements
• 4 more are pending
• Further interest expected as word gets out

15
Transmission System Assessments

• Grid complexity requires new analytical approach
• Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) effective for
  analyzing multiple factors in complex systems
• PRA beta-test led to modifications
• Grid reliability study of two of three
  Interconnections
• In close cooperation with NERC-RAS

16
Distribution System Assessments

• Systems differ greatly in architecture,
  equipment, and operations therefore
  representative systems will be analyzed using
  deterministic methods
• Urban radial, largely underground (ComEd)
• Urban network, largely underground (ConEd)
• Urban/suburban radial, largely overhead (DQE)
• Suburban, combined overhead underground (Duke)

17
Digital Society Initiative

• Form a Consortium for Electrical Infrastructure
  to Support a Digital Society (CEIDS)
• Structure of Initiative based on broad industry
  participation
• Users of Digital Electricity
• Equipment Suppliers/Vendors
• Electric Utilities

18
CEIDS Initiative

• Form Consortium early in 2001
• Goals
• Raise 20 Million from Private Sector
• Seek matching Public Sector Funding
• Initiate a research program to insure that
  digital quality electricity can be made
  available at a reasonable cost

19
Meeting the Reliability Challenge
9-nines
UPS under desk Capacitor on circuit board
To the Chip
6-nines
UPS Substation PQ Park On-Site DR
Power reliability (Logarithmic Scale)
To the Plug
3-nines
To Customer Premises
Grid Technologies
A combination of technologies will be required
20
Conclusion

• Grid reliability is being challenged by the needs
  of a digital society
• Industry is responding aggressively
• EPRIs Reliability and CEIDS initiatives focus
  developing a national response