The Future Security Environment An era of Persistent Conflict

1
The Future Security Environment An era
of Persistent Conflict

• Global terrorism and extremist ideologies are
  realities.
• Global trends will exacerbate ideological
  struggle.

• Climate Change and Natural Disasters
• Proliferation
• Failed States

/- Globalization /- Technology

• Demographics
• Resource Demand

• Likelihood of state vs. state conflict diminished
  ... but persist
• Domestic populations not threatened or mobilized.
• State and non-state actors using violence for
  political and ideological ends.

We are in for an Era of Persistent Conflict.
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Nature of Persistent Conflict

• Instigated by non-state actors or covertly by
  states
• Hybrid threats adaptive enemies employing
  asymmetric tactics
• Fought among vice around the population
• Reliance on non-military tools for success
• Expeditionary vice preplanned
• Long duration
• Conflict resolution requires a whole of
  government approach
• 24 hour global media cycle a pervasive
  information environment
• Fought with indigenous forces where possible
• Leader intensive

but we usually guess wrong.
3
Operations in Persistent Conflict

• More Irregular Warfare and Stability Operations
• Natural Disasters and Pandemics
• Still must
• Address rising regional instability
• Deal with powerful state actors
• Win in any MCO
• Operations among the people sensing, precision
• Effective information engagements
• Unpredictable, adaptive, asymmetric threats
  premium on leader understanding and framing /
  reframing of problems
• Defense Support to Civil Authorities
• Train, Advise and Assist Operations
• Tag, track and exterminate WMD

A campaign quality, expeditionary force capable
of supporting our combatant commanders across the
spectrum of conflict in the 21st Century.
4
Future Security EnvironmentMuch in Common

• Army sees a future of Persistent Conflict,
  characterized by six trends
• Globalization
• Population growth
• Resource demand
• Climate change natural disasters
• Proliferation of WMD
• Failed or failing states
• USMC Long War Concept sees a future global threat
  environment characterized by the following
  drivers of instability
• Terrorism/irregular warfare
• Ideological/Religious extremism
• Poorly/ungoverned spaces
• Globalization
• Economics/poverty/health crisis
• Rise of China/India
• Natural resource competition
• Science Technology competition
• Changing Demographics
• Environmental factors
• Crime