Some%20Long%20Range%20Forecasts

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Some Long Range Forecasts

• Anthony R. Lupo
• Department of Soil, Environmental, and
  Atmospheric Sciences
• 302 E ABNR
• University of Missouri Columbia
• Columbia, MO 65211

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Winter 2007-2008 (Mid MO)

• Predictions were for a warmer than normal winter,
  and a little wetter than normal precipitation and
  near normal snow.
• We (our research group) forecast similar
  conditions based on La Nina conditions.
• So far, were above normal (not by much), a bit
  wet with normal snow. A decent forecast on our
  part.

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Spring 2008

• Spring Temps March April May

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Spring 2008

• Spring Precipitation March April May

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Summer 2008

• CPC Summer temps - JJA

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Summer 2008

• CPC Summer Precipitation

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Forecast Performance
Forecast period Skill Score ()

Total (Temperature Precipitation) 22
Temperature 33
Precipitation 0

Total Summer Season 38
Temperature 40
Precipitation 33

Total Winter Season 0
Temperature 20
Precipitation -20
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Forecast Scheme
Forecast Category Observed Above Observed Normal Observed below
Points scored
Warmer or wetter Variable more than 0.5s above normal 2 if variable is 0.5 1.0s 1 if variable is more than 1.0s 0 if variable is -0.5 0.0s 1 if variable is 0.0 - 0.5s 0 if variable is more than -1.0s 0 if variable is -0.5 - -1.0s
normal Variable within 0.5s of normal 1 if variable is 0.5 1.0s 0 if variable is more than 1.0s 2 if variable is -0.5 0.0s 2 if variable is 0.0 - 0.5s 0 if variable is more than -1.0s 1 if variable is -0.5 - -1.0s
Cooler or drier Variable more than -0.5s below normal 0 if variable is 0.5 1.0s 0 if variable is more than 1.0s 1 if variable is -0.5 0.0s 0 if variable is 0.0 - 0.5s 1 if variable is more than -1.0s 2 if variable is -0.5 - -1.0s
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Summer 2008

• CPC forecast is for a normal to warm summer,
  with the inference that later summer will be
  warmer. No precipitation forecast.

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Our forecast Summer 2008

• Warmer than normal, with warmer temps later.
• Drier than normal amounts of precipitation, but
  likely a long dry period sometime in July -
  August period.
• Reasoning We are in a La Nina pattern, prolonged
  La Nina patterns bring us dry weather, but if we
  trend toward Neutral conditions things may not be
  too bad. This is based on Missouri past and
  analogues.

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National drought map
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CoCoRaHs

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