A%20Sustainable%20Long-Term%20Hydrogen%20Economy%20Scenario

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A Sustainable Long-Term Hydrogen Economy Scenario

• Leonardo Barretoa, Atsutoshi Makihiraa,b, Keywan
  Riahia ,
• a International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis
• b Tokyo Electric Power Company

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Outlook

• Sustainability and great transitions
• Hydrogen and energy sustainability
• The B1-H2 scenario
• Hydrogen supply strategies
• Towards a decentralized electricity system
• Hydrogen in end-use sectors
• Hydrogen and climate change
• Concluding remarks

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Sustainability and Great Transitions

• Achieving a sustainable energy system requires
  profound changes
• Transitions take very long time because of
  significant inertia of the global energy system
• Different technologies will play different roles
• Bridging technologies between the present and
  the future system
• Technologies successful in the long term

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Hydrogen and Sustainability

• Clean, flexible energy carrier
• Diverse portfolio of primary resources
• Good complement to electricity (H2electricity
  economy)
• Convenient vehicle to add value to renewable
  energy sources
• It can play an important role in climate change
  mitigation strategies

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Examining Hydrogen FuturesThe B1-H2 Scenario

• Collaboration with Tokyo Electric Power Company
• Prospects for fuel cells and other
  H2-technologies
• Long-term sustainable hydrogen-economy scenario
  to assess H2s potential ceiling
• Based on the IPCC-SRES B1 Scenario
• Sustainability, equity-oriented, low-population
  growth, high economic growth world with fast
  diffusion of clean technologies

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B1-H2 A What-If Scenario

• The scenario is an attempt to address what-if
  questions
• What if renewable-based H2 production
  technologies could be developed and deployed
  successfully?
• Which could be their contribution?
• Which could be the contribution of hydrogen in
  the best-possible world?
• B1-H2 can be regarded as an optimistic, yet
  insightful, perspective

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Primary Energy Supply
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H2-Supply Strategies

• In industrialized regions, H2 production relies
  mainly on steam reforming of natural gas
• In developing regions, a more diversified
  portfolio emerges, with higher shares of coal and
  renewable sources
• Natural Gas SMR bridges the transition towards
  renewable (biomass, solar-based) H2 production

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Global Hydrogen Supply
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H2-Supply Regional Strategies
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Towards a Decentralized Electricity System

• Micro-power technologies develop and diffuse
  (fuel cells, on-site PV, mini-turbines)
• Stationary and mobile fuel cells become an
  important part of the power supply system
• New business models develop as benefits from
  micro-power are valued in the market
• More reliable, flexible and less vulnerable
  infrastructure emerges

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Towards a Decentralized Electricity System
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H2 Penetration in End-Use Sectors

• H2 penetrates extensively in res./comm. and
  transportation and in some industrial niches
• Marketing strategies in different market segments
  must be combined for successful commercialization
  (economies-of-volume, learning-by-doing
  spillovers, clustering effects)

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H2 Penetration in End-Use Sectors
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Diffusion of Fuel Cells Transportation Sector
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CO2 Emissions
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CO2 Concentrations
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Some Required Actions

• Addressing RD needs production, storage, carbon
  capture, end-use, infrastructure
• International collaboration on RD3 strategies
  technology push and demand pull actions
• Business-Government partnerships
• Coordinated strategic niche management
• New business models that value advantages of
  decentralized energy technologies

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Concluding Remarks

• B1-H2 illustrates key role of hydrogen and
  H2-using technologies (e.g. fuel cells) in a
  transition towards a cleaner, more flexible and
  efficient, decentralized energy system
• Gradual transition from fossil-based to renewable
  H2-supply system
• H2-based energy system appears as a flexible
  risk-hedging option against climate change

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Concluding Remarks

• Even a world like B1-H2 may not be sufficient to
  avoid significant climate change impacts
• Additional measures may be necessary to reach
  stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels
  (e.g. carbon capture)

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Support Slides
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H2 as Main Final Energy Carrier
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Identifying Robust Technologies and Energy
Carriers

• Technologies that fare well across a wide range
  of scenarios
• Bridging technologies between the present and
  the future system Natural gas (CC, SMR),
  biomass, (gasification, ethanol)
• Successful technologies in the long term
  Hydrogen and fuel cells, solar PV, advanced
  nuclear, energyplexes

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Technology Different Roles
Bridging
Long-term
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Technology Clusters

• Clusters groups of related co-evolving
  technologies
• Within a cluster, technologies reinforce and
  cross-enhance each other (learning spillovers)
• The cluster concept helps identifying robust
  technologies across a wide range of developments

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Definition of Clusters

• TP Clusters Common Technology components and
  their manufacturing Processes
• e. g. Steam Cycle, Fuel Cells, Gas Cycle,
  Photovoltaic, Gasifier, Wind Turbine, Reactor,
  Hydroturbine, etc.
• IS Clusters Common Infrastructure Systems (same
  fuel input)
• e.g. Coal, Gas, Oil, Biomass, Uranium, Dams,
  Solar, Wind, etc.

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Reference Energy System

• End-Use
• Technologies
• Transportation
• Industrial Thermal
• Industrial Specific
• Res./Comm. Thermal
• Res./Comm. Specific
• Feedstocks

• Resource Extraction
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Renewables
• Uranium

• Conversion
• Technologies
• Electricity Generation
• Fuels Production (Oil products, Alcohols,
  Hydrogen, etc

Primary Energy Carriers
Final Energy Carriers
TD
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MESSAGE-MACRO

Reference GDP
Reference final-energy demand
Scenario Generator
Energy intensities
Conversion
Conversion
Conversion
Final-energy demand
Useful-energy demand
Useful-energy demand
MACRO
MESSAGE
Final energy shadow prices
Final energy demand
Cost functions
Total energy system cost
Conversion
Source Messner and Schrattenholzer, 2000

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A H2-Technology Survey
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H2-Production Investment Costs
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Fuel Cell Investment Costs
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Low Population Growth
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High Economic Growth
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Primary Energy Intensity
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Hydrogen and Energy Security

• Hydrogen is produced close to demand centers with
  regionally available resources
• No significant trade of H2 across regions
• Some impacts on natural gas trade (FSU to WEU)
• Dispersed and diversified H2-supply brings energy
  security benefits

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Hydrogen and Energy SecurityNorth American Net
Oil Imports
North AmericaU.S.ACanada
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H2-Fuel Cells and Electricity
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Decarbonization in B1-H2
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Global Mean Temperature Change