Operational ocean briefings

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Operational ocean briefings Demonstrating the
legacy of GODAE
Gary Brassington, BLUElink, Bureau of Meteorology
Joe Metzger, HYCOM, NRL Dave Storey, FOAM, UK
Met Office, Silvana Buarque, Mercator, and
Guillaume Vernieres, GMAO, NASA
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Acknowledgements
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The objective of the Global Ocean Data
Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) is to demonstrate
the practicality and feasibility of routine,
real-time global ocean data assimilation and
prediction. Smith and Lefebvre, 1997
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Synthesis
the gum machine spits out a single piece of
gum Mike Teavee You mean thats it? Willy
Wonka Do you even know what it is?
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Dissemination
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• The forecaster challenge Nice plot, should I
  believe it ?
• Identifying ocean extremes?
• climatological references for eddy-resolving
  forecasts
• knowledge of user applications
• Assessing quality
• independent validation
• discovery of systematic biases and
  skill/predictability limits
• Communication to users
• formulating meaningful warnings/advice
• timely communications
• preparedness of users to receive forecast
  information

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• Ocean briefing objectives the present status
• Showcase operational GODAE systems, products and
  services
• Demonstrate status of various systems to deliver
  quality services
• Highlight the wide-range of phenomena being
  forecast
• Demonstrate forecaster interpretation and role
  in supporting services
• Demonstrate the integration and use of multiple
  types of information
• observations, analyses, forecasts, multi-models

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• Ocean briefings Limitations
• A short briefing (15 minutes)
• Not held within an operational centre
• Single presenter
• Limited ourselves to powerpoint
• avoid internet limitations
• will be less interactive

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Schedule Briefing
Wednesday 1430-1500 Introduction Indo-Pacific Ocean, Seasonal gt Short-range Presenters Gary Brassington (CAWCR)
Thursday 830-845 North West Atlantic Presenter Joe Metzger (NRL)
Friday 830-845 North East Atlantic Presenter Dave Storey (UK Met Office)
Saturday 830-845 Indian Ocean/South Atlantic Presenter Silvana Buarque (Mercator)
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• Seasonal Outlook
• Tropical/equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean
• Current State
• Forecast
• Validation

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Current state for the Pacific SST anomalies
near their long term average
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Current state for the Pacific
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Current state for the Pacific
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Current state
JMA seasonal analysis
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JMA Nino3.4
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Forecast
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• Mesoscale ocean
• North-West Pacific
• 30 day animation
• Analysis/Forecast
• Consensus

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• Mesoscale ocean
• South-West Pacific
• Current State
• Forecast
• Validation

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• Ocean briefing the take home messages
• GODAE systems available in real-time
• Performance sufficient to add value to the
  nowcast and forecast conditions
• Complimentary to observation, analyses

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• Ocean briefing the take home messages
• GODAE systems available in real-time
• Performance sufficient to add value to the
  nowcast and forecast conditions
• Complimentary to observation, analyses
• Completion of the GODAE data service vision
  needs to be fully realised
• Limitations in methods (model/assim), observing
  system, predictability
• Consensus very useful when they agree
• Which is best? Challenge for GODAE OceanView and
  GOOS

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• Ocean briefing the take home messages
• GODAE systems available in real-time
• Performance sufficient to add value to the
  nowcast and forecast conditions
• Complimentary to observation, analyses
• Completion of the GODAE data service vision
  needs to be realised
• Limitations in methods (model/assim), observing
  system, predictability
• Consensus very useful when they agree
• Which is best? Challenge for GODAE OceanView and
  GOOS
• Operational ocean forecasters part of a quality
  service delivery
• Ocean forecast interpretation will mature in the
  next phase of GODAE
• .........

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• Ocean briefing the BLUElink experience
• Forecast quality was very poor during single
  altimeter modes
• Drop outs in coverage to single altimeter, take
  several analyses to recover stable performance
• Global 24hr coverage AMSR-E very effective over
  the deep ocean
• Insufficient in coastal/shelf seas
• In situ observations are under utilised in
  BLUElink
• Argo salinity demonstrates poorest agreement,
• salinity fronts low confidence
• Meteorological agencies have limited experience
  with dynamical oceanography. Training will help
  to close the knowledge gap. The GODAE education
  toolbox

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Schedule Briefing
Thursday 830-845 North West Atlantic Presenter Joe Metzger (NRL)
Friday 830-845 North East Atlantic Presenter Dave Storey (UK Met Office)
Saturday 830-845 Indian Ocean/South Atlantic Presenter Silvana Buarque (Mercator)
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Acknowledgements
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