Patricia Dehmer

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Facing Our Energy Challenges in a New Era of
Science
XXVI International Conference on Photonic,
Electronic, and Atomic Collisions Kalamazoo,
MI Thursday, July 23, 2009

• Patricia Dehmer
• Deputy Director for Science Programs
• Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy
• Download this talk at http//www.science.doe.gov/S
  C-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm

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400 Years of Energy Use in the U.S.
19th century discoveries and 20th century
technologies are very much a part of todays
infrastructure and fuels mix.
Wind, water, wood, animals, (Mayflower,1620)
2
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Energy Facts That We Should Know

• Energy consumption today
• Energy needs through the 21st century
• Energy sources and consumption sectors
• Fossil fuel reserves
• Nuclear and renewable energy
• Energy and the environment

4
Energy consumption today
Quad 1015 BTU
4
5
U.S. and World Energy Consumption TodayWith lt5
of the worlds population, the U.S. consumes 21
of all primary energy
472 Quads
World
United States
100 Quads
China
Russia
Some equivalent ways of referring to the energy
used by the U.S. in 1 year (approx. 100
Quads) 100.0 quadrillion British Thermal Units
(Quads) U.S. British unit of energy 105.5 exa
Joules (EJ) Metric unit of energy 3.346
terawatt-years (TW-yr) Metric unit of power
(energy/sec)x(seconds in a year)
6
U.S. Energy Production Consumption Since
1950The U.S. was self sufficient in energy until
the late 1950s
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Energy needs in the 21st century
?
U.S.
?
472 Quads
World
7
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World Energy Needs will Grow in the 21st
CenturyBy the end of the century, world energy
needs may triple
Projections to 2030 are from the Energy
Information Administration, International Energy
Outlook, 2009.
World Primary Energy Consumption (Quads)
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Energy Demand and Economic DevelopmentAs nations
with large populations develop, world energy
demand will greatly increase
PPP Purchasing Power Parity - A rate of
exchange that accounts for price differences
across countries allowing international
comparisons of real output and incomes.
Source UN and DOE EIA, Slide courtesy of Steven
E. Koonin, Chief Scientist, BP, plc
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Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Atmospheric Concentrations
The Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) of the
Massachusetts Institute of Technologys Joint
Program on the Science and Policy of Global
Change The Model for Evaluating the Regional and
Global Effects (MERGE) of GHG reduction policies
developed jointly at Stanford University and the
Electric Power Research Institute The MiniCAM
Model of the Joint Global Change Research
Institute, a partnership between the Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory and the University
of Maryland Each modeling group first produced
a reference scenario under the assumption that no
climate policies are imposed beyond current
commitments, namely the 2008-12 first period of
the Kyoto Protocol and the U.S. goal of reducing
reduce GHG emissions per unit of its gross
domestic product by 18 by 2012. The resulting
reference cases are not predictions or
best-judgment forecasts but scenarios designed to
provide clearly defined points of departure for
studying the implications of alternative
stabilization goals. As instructed in the
Prospectus for the study, the modeling teams used
model input assumptions they considered
meaningful and plausible. The resulting reference
scenarios provide insights into how the world
might evolve without additional efforts to
constrain GHG emissions, given various
assumptions about principal drivers of these
emissions such as population increase, economic
growth, land and labor productivity growth,
technological options, and resource endowments.
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Global Primary Energy Consumption
Fig. TS1 Global Primary Energy Consumption
Across Reference Scenarios (EJ/yr). Global
primary energy consumption rises in all three
reference scenarios, from about 400 EJ/yr in 2000
to between roughly 1275 EJ/yr and 1500 EJ/yr in
2100. Dependence on conventional oil resources
gradually decreases. However, a range of
alternative fossil-based resources, such as
synthetic fuels from coal and unconventional oil
resources (e.g., tar sands and oil shales) are
available and become economically viable. Fossil
fuels provided almost 90 of global primary
energy consumption in the year 2000, and they
remain the dominant energy source in the three
reference scenarios throughout the twenty-first
century, supplying 70 to 80 of primary energy
in 2100. Non-fossil fuel energy use grows over
the century in all three reference scenarios. The
range of contributions in 2100 is from 250 EJ/yr
to 450 EJ/yr an amount equaling roughly
one-half to a little over global primary energy
consumption today. Notes. i. Oil consumption
includes that derived from tar sands and oil
shales, and coal consumption includes that used
to produce synthetic liquid and gaseous fuels.
ii. Primary energy consumption from nuclear power
and non-biomass renewable electricity are
accounted for at the average efficiency of
fossil-fired electric facilities, which vary over
time and across scenarios. This longstanding
convention means that, all other things being
equal, increasing efficiency of fossil-electric
energy lowers the contribution to primary energy
from these sources.
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U.S. Primary Energy Consumption
Fig. TS2 U.S. Primary Energy Consumption
Across Reference Scenarios (EJ/yr). U.S. primary
energy consumption rises in all three reference
scenarios, to roughly 1¼ to 2½ times present
levels by 2100. This growth occurs despite
continued improvements in the efficiency of
energy use and production. U.S. energy intensity
declines 60 to 75 between 2000 and 2100 in the
reference scenarios. Notes. i. Oil consumption
includes that derived from tar sands and oil
shales, and coal consumption includes that used
to produce synthetic liquid and gaseous fuels.
ii. Primary energy consumption from nuclear power
and non-biomass renewable electricity are
accounted for at the average efficiency of
fossil-fired electric facilities, which vary over
time and across scenarios. This long-standing
convention means that, all other things being
equal, increasing efficiency of fossil-electric
energy lowers the contribution to primary energy
from these sources.
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Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S.
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2008 About 1/3 of U.S. primary
energy is imported
Exports 7 Quads
Domestic Production 74 Quads
Consumption 99 Quads
Energy Consumption
Energy Supply (Quads)
Imports 33 Quads
Adjustments 1
15
U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) 85 of primary
energy is from fossil fuels
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
15
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) 58 of Primary
Energy is Waste

Nuclear
Electricity 40.5
Wasted 58.5
Res.
Com.
Gas
Used 43.0
Industry
Coal
Trans.
Petroleum (2/3 of crude oil imported)
Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
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U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) At midcentury,
the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used
today and with greater overall efficiency
18
Overall Efficiency of an Incandescent Bulb ? 2
Lighting accounts for ? 22 of all electricity
usage in the U.S.
Energy content of coal 100 units
Example of energy lost during conversion and
transmission. Imagine that the coal needed to
illuminate an incandescent light bulb contains
100 units of energy when it enters the power
plant. Only two units of energy eventually light
the bulb. The remaining 98 units are lost along
the way, primarily as heat.
2 units of energy in light output
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Illumination of the Night Sky 2/3 of the U.S
population has lost naked-eye visibility of the
Milky Way
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id1438l
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Fossil fuel reserves
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Fossil Fuel Supplies are Estimated using
Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratios

• The R/P ratio is the number of years that proved
  reserves would last at current production rates.
• World R/P ratios are Oil 40.5 years
  Natural Gas 66.7 years Coal 164 years
• U.S. R/P ratios are Oil 11.1 years
  Natural Gas 9.8 years Coal 245 years

200
164 yrs.
Proven World Reserves-to-Production Ratio at End
2004 (Years)
100
66.7 yrs.
40.5 yrs.
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
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World Reserves of OilThere is a significant
dislocation between fossil fuel supply and demand
Who uses the oil? (thousands of barrels per day)
(http//www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)
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Peak OilU.S. oil production peaked in 1970
world oil production will peak mid century
1970
Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios The Future
Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert, John
H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/featu
re_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
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Shale (Unconventional) Gas Another 100 Years?
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Unconventional Gas Shale Gas
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Nuclear and renewable energy
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Nuclear Energy Provides 20 of U.S.
Electricity Europe and Japan rely much more
heavily on nuclear energy for electricity
generation
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Permits for U.S. Reactors Issued Only Until
19798.4 quads of nuclear energy produced by 104
operable nuclear power plants
300
Units Ordered
250
200
Construction Permits Issued
Number of Units
150
Full-power Operating Licenses
100
Operable Units
50
Shutdowns
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
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Nuclear and Renewable are 15 of Energy
SupplyHydroelectric and wood still dominate the
renewable energies
Coal 23
Nuclear 9
Renewables 7
Petroleum 37
Natural Gas 24
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Energy and the environment
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Greenhouse Effect
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include
water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and ozone. Greenhouse gases that are not
naturally occurring include hydro-fluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a
variety of industrial processes.
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Radiation Transmitted by the Atmosphere
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Radiative Forcing of Climate, 1750-2005
Summary of the components of the radiative
forcing of climate change in 2005 relative to the
start of the industrial era (about 1750). Human
activities cause significant changes in
long-lived gases, ozone, water vapor, surface
albedo, aerosols and contrails. The only increase
in natural forcing is in solar irradiance.
Positive forcings lead to warming of climate and
negative forcings lead to a cooling. IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Climate Change
2007 The Physical Science Basis
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Planets, Atmospheres, and Climate
A planet's climate is determined by its mass, its
distance from the sun, and the composition of its
atmosphere. Earth's atmosphere is 78 nitrogen,
21 oxygen, and 1 other gases. Carbon dioxide
accounts for 0.03 - 0.04. Water vapor, carbon
dioxide, and other minor gases absorb thermal
radiation leaving the surface. These greenhouse
gases act as a partial blanket for the thermal
radiation from the surface and enable it to be
substantially warmer than it would otherwise be.
Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average
temperature would be roughly -20C -4 F.
-58oF
59oF
788 oF
Sun
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Modern CO2 Concentrations are Increasing The
current concentration is the highest in 800,000
years, as determined by ice core data
Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory
Concentration now 388 ppm
Concentration prior to 1800 was 280 ppm
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Modern CO2 Concentrations are Increasing The
current concentration is the highest in 800,000
years, as determined by ice core data
Recent monthly mean CO2 measured at Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii. Data are reported as a dry
mole fraction the number of molecules of CO2
divided by the number of molecules of dry air,
multiplied by one million (ppm). The dashed red
line with diamond symbols represents the monthly
mean values, centered on the middle of each
month. The black line with the square symbols
represents the same, after correction for the
average seasonal cycle.
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Carbon Cycle Atmosphere and Land/OceansAnthropo
genic effects (fossil fuels use, land use, )
result in a net increase in atmospheric carbon
Storage in Gt C Fluxes in Gt C/year 1 Gton 109
tons
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Bubbles 800,000 Years of CO2 Concentrations
Nature, 15 May 2008, Cover Image The air
bubbles trapped in the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA
Dome C ice cores provide composite records of
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane
covering the past 650,000 years. Now the record
of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane
concentrations has been extended by two more
complete glacial cycles to 800,000 years ago. The
new data are from the lowest 200 metres of the
Dome C core. This ice core went down to just a
few metres above bedrock at a depth of 3,270
metres. The cover shows a strip of ice core
from another ice core in Antarctica (Berkner
Island) from a depth of 120 metres. Photo credit
Chris Gilbert, British Antarctic Survey.
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CO2 Concentrations and Temperature The
correlation extends throughout the 800,000-year
time span of the ice core data
a The 800,000-year records of atmospheric carbon
dioxide (red parts per million, p.p.m.) and
methane (green parts per billion, p.p.b.) from
the EPICA Dome C ice core together with a
temperature reconstruction (relative to the
average of the past millennium) based on the
deuteriumhydrogen ratio of the ice, reinforce
the tight coupling between greenhouse-gas
concentrations and climate observed in previous,
shorter records. The 100,000-year sawtooth
variability undergoes a change about 450,000
years ago, with the amplitude of variation,
especially in the carbon dioxide and temperature
records, greater since that point than it was
before. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
modern atmosphere are highly anomalous with
respect to natural greenhouse-gas variations
(present-day concentrations are around 380 p.p.m.
for carbon dioxide and 1,800 p.p.b. for
methane). b The carbon dioxide and methane
trends from the past 2,000 years. Ed Brook,
Nature 453, 291 (2008).
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Past and Future CO2 Concentrations CO2
concentrations are predicted to increase by a
factor of two to three
Preindustrial concentration 280 ppm
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CO2 Concentrations, Temperature, and Sea
LevelRise Long after Emissions are Reduced
Sea-level rise due to ice melting
Assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions peak in 0-100
years, then drop off to near zero
Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion
Temp stabilization
CO2 stabilization
CO2 emissions
Now
100 yrs
1,000 yrs
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Recap and the components of energy strategies
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Electric Energy Storage
Transmission Distribution
Electricity 40.5
Nuclear
End-use Efficiency
Wasted 58.5
Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation
Gas
Used 43.0
CCS
Coal
Fuel Switching
Petroleum
Climate/Environment Science
43
Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
44
NAS Americas Energy Future
One of the committees conclusions is that there
is no technological silver bullet at present
that could transform the U.S. energy system
through a substantial new source of clean and
reasonably priced domestic energy. Instead, the
transformation will require a balanced portfolio
of existing (although perhaps modified)
technologies, multiple new energy technologies,
and new energy-efficiency and energy-use
patterns.
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NAS Americas Energy Future
But a timely transformation of the energy system
is unlikely to happen without finally adopting a
strategic energy policy to guide developments
over the next decades. Long-term problems
require long-term solutions, and only
significant, deliberate, stable, integrated,
consistent, and sustained actions will move us to
a more secure and sustainable energy
future. Harold T. Shapiro, ChairPreface Committ
ee on Americas Energy Future
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CO2 Emissions Triple
Figure TS.5 Global Emissions of CO2 from Fossil
Fuels and Industrial Sources CO2 from land-use
change excluded Across Reference Scenarios
(GtC/yr). Global emissions of CO2 from fossil
fuel combustion and other industrial sources,
mainly cement production, increase over the
century in all three reference scenar
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U.S Primary Energy Consumption by Fuels Across
Scenarios
IGSM
MERGE
MiniCAM
Reference Scenarios
750 ppmv CO2
650 ppmv CO2
550 ppmv CO2
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Stabilization Scenarios for Long-Term CO2
Concentrations in ppmv
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Continuous improvement the role of current
technologies
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One Strategy Use Current TechnologiesStabilizat
ion Wedges Pacala and Socolow Challenge for CO2
Stabilization for Kids and Lawmakers
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Stabilization WedgesTwo Emission Scenarios
Define the Stabilization Triangle
Emissions-doubling path
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The Wedge Stabilization Game Pieces
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Tranformational change the role of research
and innovation
Can research make abrupt changes in experience
curves?
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Learning or Experience Curves
Learning curve theory states that as the quantity
of items produced doubles, costs decrease at a
predictable rate. Studies from many industries
yield values ranging from a couple of percent up
to 30 percent, but in most cases it is a constant
percentage. Can we make abrupt changes in
learning curves?
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The Learning Curve for Solar Cells Price dropped
20 for each doubling of production since 1976
(80 learning curve)
Learning curve for solar cells. The module price
has been dropping 20 for every doubling of
module production (80 learning curve) since
1976. Extrapolation of this historical trend into
the future, plus a projected technological
revolution at an annual production level of
150,000 MWp, results in a prediction that
0.40/Wp would not be reached for another 2025
yr. Reaching 0.40/Wp sooner to accelerate
large-scale implementation of PV systems will
require an intense effort in basic science to
produce a technological revolution that leads to
new, as-yet-unknown technology. This revolution
requires a major reduction in the ratio of the PV
module cost per unit area to the cell efficiency.
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Competitive Pricing is Decades Away with the 80
Learning Curve
Learning curve for solar cells. The module price
has been dropping 20 for every doubling of
module production (80 learning curve) since
1976. Extrapolation of this historical trend into
the future, plus a projected technological
revolution at an annual production level of
150,000 MWp, results in a prediction that
0.40/Wp would not be reached for another 2025
yr. Reaching 0.40/Wp sooner to accelerate
large-scale implementation of PV systems will
require an intense effort in basic science to
produce a technological revolution that leads to
new, as-yet-unknown technology. This revolution
requires a major reduction in the ratio of the PV
module cost per unit area to the cell efficiency.
57
Evolution of Superconducting Transition
Temperature High Tc discovered in 1986 Nobel
Prize in 1987 Mechanism still unknown
58
Worlds First High Tc Power Cable Installed as
part of the Long Island Power Authority
The world's first HTS power transmission cable
system is pictured above as part of the Long
Island Power Authority (LIPA) transmission grid.
This system, which consists of three cables
running in parallel in a four-foot wide
underground right of way, is capable of carrying
574 megawatts of power. The three cables shown
entering the ground can carry as much power as
all of the overhead lines on the far left. (Photo
courtesy of American Superconductor Corp.)
59
New Materials Superconductor Discoveries
164 K
55 K
60
40
40K
40K
55
post 1986
50
pre 1986
Tc
30

45
30K
43
BES Report on Basic Research Needs for
Superconductivity 2006 http//www.sc.doe.gov/bes/r
eports/abstracts.htmlSC
26K
25K
Number
Transition Temperature (K)
23K
30
20
18.5K
22
21
12K
13K
11.5K
18
15
10
15
6K
8
8
4.05K
7
4
3
1.5K
1
1
Heavy Fermion
Boro- carbides
Non-cuprate Oxides
Binary Borides
Intercalated Graphite
Iron Arsenides
Lix- HfNCl
Carbon- Fulleride
Elements
Cuprates
60
GMR In Read-Write Heads Shortly After Discovery
Discovered in 1988 Nobel Prize in 2007
1960
1970
1980
1990
2010
2000
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Luminous Efficacy for Lighting Technologies
Jeff Y. Tsao, Solid-State Lighting Lamps, Chips
and Materials for Tomorrow, IEEE Circuits
Devices 20(3), 28-37 (2004).
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The role of basic science
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Directing Matter and Energy Five Challenges
for Science and the Imagination

• Control the quantum behavior of electrons in
  materials
• Synthesize, atom by atom, new forms of matter
  with tailored properties
• Control emergent properties that arise from the
  complex correlations of atomic and electronic
  constituents
• Synthesize man-made nanoscale objects with
  capabilities rivaling those of living things
• Control matter very far away from equilibrium

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Scaling from Atomic to Macro
Continuum
A quantitative connection has not been
established
s
Mesoscale
Microscale
ms
Dislocation theory
Plasticity of complex shapes
Atomic Scale
Time
ms
Aggregate grain response, poly-crystal plasticity
Engineering Plasticity
ns
Dislocation Dynamics Collective behavior of
defects, single- crystal plasticity
Molecular Dynamics
ps
mm
mm
nm
Length
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Take the Beat-the-Leaf Challenge
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END
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Prefixes and Names for Large and Small Numbers