What can Scientists tell Politicians

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What can Scientists tell Politicians
? Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Christine Steinhoff, Max Planck Institut für
Molekulare Genetik
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Outline
Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Introduction
• Definitions
• Why do we need Scientific Consulting?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• One way of looking at the problem
• Goals, Interests and Intersection
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Example Research and Reference Services of the
  German Bundestag
• Example Enquete Kommission versus National
  Ethics Council
• Example Statistics and Prognostics in Germany

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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• Historical Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
In der Politik kommt es nicht darauf an, dass
man Recht hat, sondern dass man Recht bekommt.
(Fritz Erler)
Scientists versus Politicians?!
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
5

• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Scientific Consulting/Advisory Policy Consulting
versus Consulting Politicians Advice versus
Consulting
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
What is Scientific Consulting/Advisory/Policy
Consulting/Advice ???

• Relationship between
• Political instances or politicians
• and
• (b) Scientists or persons with scientific
  knowledge
• who acquired their knowledge applying scientific
  methods and pass on to politically acting persons

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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
To some extent scientific advisory/consulting can
be viewed as SCIENTIFIC Provision of
information service
TWO PARTS!
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Target
• Delegate/ Politician in a party
• parliamentary groups
• faction (german Fraktion)
• Staff
• Government and Administration
• political foundation
• Association
• Media
• Public

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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Who ?
• in-house experts
• Scientists
• Political scientists
• Journalists
• Lobbyists

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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Who ? Problems Competence Time
consuming Independence Own
Interests Communication differences
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Setting Different Groups are used to different
kinds of communication methods
Publications
Talk
Conferences, Hearings
Phone call Personal conversation
Internet, email, data base, Electronic
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Content Different groups expect different
contents
Communication Advice (see google
for Politikberatung)
Coaching
Strategy Advice (few attempts for sustainability)
Expert/Technical advice Thats what we
(scientists) think of
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• Introduction Definitions
• Why Scientific Consulting ?
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Do we need Scientific Consulting at all?

• Identification and Recognition of Problems
• Early Warning
• Evaluation
• Representation of interests
• Mediation (of conflicts)
• Monitoring
• Scientific corroboration of political opinion
  and decision

All these things are not new! Historically
Gelehrter Rat
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• One way
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
One (easy) way of looking at the problem
Science develops a theoretical model how to reach
the goal
Problem identification Goal
Politics converts model

• BUT this process does not take into account the
  interest in benefit of each of the involved
  persons
• elections, policy, party, citizens
• Scientific reputation, further research,
  financial interest

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• One way
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
The probability that electors take into account
specific informations in the course of their
decision is decreasing the more complex the
subject is. That means Keep it easy !!!
Scientific formalistic advice has to get through
not only to the politician but also to the
citizen!
The farther we are away from solving the actual
problem, the less attractive it is for the
scientist BECAUSE The science-internal
criteria of success differ highly from criteria
of success in the course of consulting
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• One way
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Successful advising has apart from the technical
advice ALSO to recognize the difference between
common interests of the citizen on the one hand
and the politicians interest on the other. It is
only advice the convertion/decision has to be
executed by politicians (democratic elections)
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• Goals, Interests and Intersection
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Example Green Bio/Gene technology Some Facts
Klothes Klewes GmbH, 2000 30 Germans believe,
that their own genes are damaged in case they
eat tomatoes that have been genetically modified.
BMBF (ministry) 2000 44 Germans believe that
normal tomatoes dont have genes
Emnid 2003 (ordered by Greenpeace) 72 Germans
dont want to have genetically engineered food
even if only the animal food has been modified
(meat, eggs, milk).
Eurobarometer 2005 49 Germans think they do
not get enough information on that subject or
dont know enough
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• Goals, Interests and Intersection
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Example Green Bio/Gene technology Politician
in www.politikerscreen.de, 2005 More than 80
Germans dont want green gene engineering
Remember Eurobarometer 2005 49 Germans think
they do not get enough information on that
subject or dont know enough
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• Goals, Interests and Intersection
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Example Green Bio/Gene technology
Three Steps Background Information Why
should I do something? What shall I do?
By the way That is lobbyism
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
- Think Tanks in the US versus
commission and advisory body in Germany?
- Historically well established phenomenon

• Ministry of Education and Research 2003,
  Initiative
• Wissen für Entscheidungsprozesse Forschung
  zum Verhältnis von Wissenschaft, Politik und
  Gesellschaft

• 6th FP EU Science and Technology

• TAB Publication Participitative Verfahren der
  Technikfolgenabschätzung und Parlamentarische
  Politikberatung Neue Formen der Kommunikation
  zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und
  Öffentlichkeit

• more and more commercial provision of advice,
  whole bunch of companies offering advice

• formerly in-house solutions within the parties

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
CITIZEN
www.promikatur.de
Politics
www.bubec.de
www.lo-net.de/ class/Tram1-04/
Science
http//www.physics.uq.edu.au/people/people/amanda/
images/
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
In Germany we have more than 1000 expert
commissions, counselling organisations , Each
one with their own interests! More or less each
one writing to politicians
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Organisation of the Administration
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
President of the German Bundestag
Commissions/enquetes and their corresponding
referee field
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
1.WF
2.WF
PET
WD

• (II)
• Foreign Affairs,
• International Legislation,
• Economic Cooperation and Development,
• Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid,
• Defence
• (XII)
• European affairs
• (IV)
• Budget, Finances
• (V)
• Economics and Labour,
• Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture
• Tourism
• (VIII)
• Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
  Safety,
• Education, Research and Technology Assessment

• (III)
• Internal Affairs
• Sports
• (VI)
• Labour and Social
• (VII)
• Legal Affairs
• Transport, Building and Housing
• (IX)
• Health and Social Security
• Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth
• (X)
• Cultural and media Affairs

Petitions
Library, Documentation, History, Archive
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Third largest parliamentary library Washington,
Tokyo, Berlin
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
http//www.bundestag.de/bic/analysen/
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Der Aktuelle Begriff
• Infobrief
• Ausarbeitung
• Dokumentation
• Kurzinformation
• Materialzusammenstellung

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Question/Request
One possibility .
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Costs
• Short term/Deadline
• In House

WHY?

• Electoral district
• Background for discussion panel
• Speech
• Plenary discussion or commission

What for?
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Did you ever think of questions like this?
Thats not all trivial!

• Fictive and a bit extreme - at least to some
  extent
• Reading a small column in a local newspaper in
  spain a couple of weeks ago (dont remember the
  name but was somewhere in the south) there is a
  company that produces some chips that can
  detect your cholesterine disease? Whats that
  exactly?

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
and some more

• What is the distribution of animals being
  killed on the streets comparing highways and
  country lanes? Compare with planes!

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Research and Reference Services

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
and some more

• Health documentation comparison comparing prison
  and outside. For notifiable diseases (anonymous
  notification) the probability that you can guess
  who has the disease is higher for prisoners than
  for normal people.

• Comparing 1951, 1968 and 1972 what are the
  differences in (a) enrolment, (b) graduation, (c)
  gender distribution for studying physics in
  Germany compared to Denmark?

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Enquete Kommission / National Ethics Council

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Enquete-Kommission 'Ethik und Recht der modernen
Medizin'
Nationaler Ethikrat

• 1994 first permanent ethics commission in
  Germany by the Bundesaerztekammer
• 1995 Ethikbeirat Health Ministry
• Discussion Do we need a German Ethics
  Commission?
• 2001 Decision of the Government Nationaler
  Ethikrat
• Nomination of members by the chancellor
• interdiciplinary discussion in science,
  medicine, theology, philosophy, social- and
  political sciences.
• information and discussion for and with citizen

• Enquete Commission
• Possibility to constitute an enquete com. since
  1969
• Another information possibility
• Parliamentary knowledge process without
  legislation process
• Preparation process
• Recommendation for decision (without obligation)
• Members of the Bundestag AND experts!
• Not permanent
• Collecting information, participating
  congresses, hearings, ordering expertises,
  suggestions,
• Decision of the Bundestag what kind of enquetes
  and if
• At the moment
• Ethik und Recht in der Modernen Medizin
• Kultur in Deutschland

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Enquete Kommission / National Ethics Council

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Enquete-Kommission 'Ethik und Recht der modernen
Medizin'
Nationaler Ethikrat

• EXAMPLE
• - 2002 debate on stem cell research and legal
  basis
• complex subject and far from normal parliamentary
  every day life
• embryonic versus adult stem cells? Many
  scientific terms
• - (15th July 2003) academic background of 603
  members of the Bundestag
• 363 with university degree
• 5 biology (field of study)
• 7 chemistry
• 3 computational sciences
• 12 agricultural sciences
• 8 mathematics
• 5 medicine
• 3 pharmacy
• 8 physics
• 4 veterinary medicine
• - of course many people with background that are
  close to scientific questions (nurse,)
• two different advisory bodies
• experts conclude, parliamentary decision was
  closer to Nationaler Ethikrat advice.

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• so-called Sonntagsfrage In case there is an
  election on Sunday, what would you vote for?
• representative?
• so-called Wahl-O-Mat Web-based interactive
  Election Tool
• Statistically sound?
• genetically modified organisms food
• Exact version of the question? Choices?

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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
History America, President Election
1936 Literary Digest predicted based on
millions of americans the election victory of the
republican candidate London. In fact the
democratic candidate Roosevelt was clearly the
winner. Problem Literary Digest chose
phone-numbers and car applications. Most of the
Roosevelt-electors neither had a phone nor a
car.
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Representative?!
• What does this mean? Is it defined?
• Normally representative by chance
• frequently statistic percentage of by
  chance collected persons
• open questions how large? Where? By which
  method (phone, interview)?
• peoples reaction depending on their
  preference, therefore weighting the answers!
  But How?

Stochastically showing up
electors of right-extreme parties are
underestimated Long period before
election Influence of actual situation Kind of
Question possibilities of choice circumstances
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Systematic effects
Stochastic effects
Error Model
Correct for
So, where is the Error probability? Only
accounting for the small sample size, we would
expect something like With a probability of 1-x
we predict a range of y to (yy) for some
party.
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment

• Name of the Institute
• Whole dataset
• Who ordered the statistic
• Date/period
• Sample size
• Kind of interviewing
• Kind of random selection
• Exact version of the question

Some important influencing factors
Did you ever read these things in the newspaper?
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Allensbach Forsa Infratest Dimap
Emnid Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Face to face Each interviewer up to 9 persons
Every day phone 500 persons 2500 per week Fixed
number in western and eastern part of Germany
(same amount!)
Monthly 1300 elective people 900 western/400
eastern part
1300 electives Weekly
Period of 4 days 1050 people Phone call
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Suppose we want to establish an interactive
Election Tool Thats not easy!
Questionnaire (1) ? (2) ? (3) ? .
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Your Profile
Party
Questionnaire (1) Agree/Neutral/Disagree (2)
Agree/Neutral/Disagree (3) Agree/Neutral/Disagree
.
Questionnaire (1) Agree/Neutral/Disagree (2)
Agree/Neutral/Disagree (3) Agree/Neutral/Disagree
.
Questionnaire (1) Agree/Neutral/Disagree (2)
Agree/Neutral/Disagree (3) Agree/Neutral/Disagree
.
Questionnaire (1) Agree/Neutral/Disagree (2)
Agree/Neutral/Disagree (3) Agree/Neutral/Disagree
.
Questionnaire (1) Agree/Neutral/Disagree (2)
Agree/Neutral/Disagree (3) Agree/Neutral/Disagree
.
X M(n,m) X(q,p) 1,2,3
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• Introduction
• Policy Consulting and Consulting Politicians
• General Comments
• Situation in Germany
• Statistics and Prognostics

Scientific Policy Consulting and Technology
Assessment
Suppose 1 3 weight 1 1,3 2 weight 0.5
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THANKS for your attention
Dr. Christine Steinhoff Max Planck Institut für
Molekulare Genetik Dept. Computational Molecular
Biology