European agriculture in the 21st century

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• European agriculture in the 21st century
• sustainable pathways from a global perspective

Prem S. Bindraban Team leader Natural
Resources Plant Research International
Conference on Sustainable Agriculture SAI CIAA
Platform Brussels 22-23 November 2007
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Agricultural superpower(s)
EU27 - 432106 ha
Brazil - 846106 ha
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Food production and demand
Netherlands Scientific Council for Government
Policy (WRR), 1995
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Global demand for food
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We can potentially feed the world BUT
Based on WRR, 1995
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Production potential
Bindraban, Conijn, Jongschaap, Uithol
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Agricultural productivity
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European potential
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Production, Consumption and Trade - EU-25 EUROSTAT
Trade is a small percentage of consumption for
most commodities
Source European Commission (Eurostat and
Agricultural and Rural Development DG)
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Volume change of net trade EU-15 due to trade
liberalization ( change)
FAPRI model for 2002 and 2011 positive values
exports, negative values imports Baseline 2002
and 2011 continuation current (2001) CAP
Conclusion Little change in absolute terms
Source FAPRI, 2002
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European demand and production potential
Potential Production
3000
2500
Actual production (EURSTAT)
Based on baseline diet (WRR)
2000
IMPACT projection (IFPRI)
Production Potential (WRR)
Million tons Grain Equivalents
1500
1000
Production/consumption
500
0
2005
2015
2020
2040
Year
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Agricultural role of European in the world - I
Food
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Agriculture the starting motor for overall
economic development
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Asia stimulated agricultural development

• Technologies
• Research Extension
• Market regulation

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• Realizing the promise and
• potential of African agriculture

Science and Technology Strategies for Improving
Agricultural Productivity and Food Security in
Africa
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Agricultural role of European in the world - II
Food
Development
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Efficiency of energy fixation
100
2.3 C6H12O6
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CO2 Energy of agro-energy
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0.5 1.5
15 25
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Production on degraded lands?
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Conversion losses Cerrado Grassland Arable
Grass Arable loss 10 50 Mg C.ha1
CerradoGrassland loss 10140 Mg C.ha1
CerradoArable loss 30140 Mg C.ha1
May take more then 100 years to make up for
initial losses
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Follow basic processes in life sciences for
agro-energy
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European values Agricultural pathways
Health Well-being
Nature Landscape
Environment
Production
Work Income
P. Vereijken
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Sustainable intensification Intensive dairy
production
F. Aarts PRI - WUR
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Sustainable intensification Intensive dairy
production
F. Aarts PRI - WUR
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Think outside the box
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Linking energyand food production

Jan Ketelaars PRI-WUR
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Outside the box
Design of a seaweed production plant
Buck et al. 2004
M. Barbosa, R. Wijffels, W. Brandenburg -WUR
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European values Agricultural pathways
Health Well-being
Nature Landscape
Environment
Production
Work Income
P. Vereijken
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Let us not turn the 21st century into dreams and
storiesbut rely on firm reality
The reversal of Maslows pyramid ??
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Conclusions

• Europe should be self-sufficient

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Conclusions

• Europe should supply Asia with food

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Conclusions

• Europe should support Africas Agricultural
  development

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Conclusions

• Europe does not need agro-energy

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Conclusions

• Europe should pursue high productive integrated
  agricultural production systems

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Conclusions

• Europe should cherish multifunctional agriculture
  and land use for specific purposes

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Conclusions

• Self-sufficient
• Supply Asia with food
• Support Africas Agricultural development
• No agro-energy needed
• Pursue high productive integrated agricultural
  production systems
• Cherish multifunctional agriculture

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