Future food and fuel security in an uncertain climate

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Future food and fuel security in an uncertain
climate?
CABI Global Summit, 20 October 2009 Lindsey
Norgrove, Global Director, Invasive Species
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socio-demographic influences on food security

• Increased demand
• 800 million people are food-insecure
• global grain reserves lt 90 days
• by 2030, global population 17
• preference changes economic growth means global
  food production must increase by 50
• increased demand for water energy

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reduced supply, increased wastage

• Decrease in freshwater per capita drier lands
  cultivated
• Long-term increase in fossil fuel price
  dependent inputs (N fertilizer)
• Reduction in soil fertility only 60-80 yrs of
  world P supply
• Urbanisation significant wastage of fertilizer
  opportunities

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climate change predictions

• Increases in global average surface temperatures
  of 1.1- 6.4 C during 21st century (IPCC 2007)

Simulated temperature (ºC) changes by 2080
compared with 2000 (Betts 2005)
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temperature effects on yields
increase (ºC)
adapted by Norgrove from IPCC (2007), summarising
69 studies

• Yield declines in Tropics
• Does not account for changes in pests, diseases,
  weeds

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pest ranges may expand to higher altitudes
latitudes

• Radopholus similis nematodes are major cause of
  yield loss of plantain and bananas worldwide
• R. similis absent at high altitudes latitudes.
  Is this changing?
• R. similis might replace less damaging
  Pratylenchus goodeyi at higher altitude

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temperature effects on plantain crop pests root
damage index
Higher temperature more reproduction, damage
yield loss
Data adapted from Fallas Sarah 1995, Pinochet
et al 1995, Norgrove Hauser unpubl
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more extreme weather events

• Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones
• e.g. (Emanuel 2005) more frequent tropical
  storms (IPCC 2007)

Hail damage on apples in Albania (photo W Jenner)
Cyclone damage to bananas in Australia
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a positive future view how we can adapt to
climate change

• Develop a basket of informed options and
  encourage cropping system diversification
• Knowledge transfer between climate matched
  regions
• Better weather forecasting available to farmers,
  including pest forecasts. Rapid dissemination
  using cell-phones and internet.
• Promote IPM to farmers for pests projected to
  increase

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forecasting pest outbreaks

• Community based armyworm forecasting in Tanzania
• Armyworms are Spodoptera caterpillars that
  attack maize, sorghum, millet and rice
• Extension workers train farmers to use insect
  traps and rain gauges
• They then make weekly predictions on the
  likelihood of an armyworm attack

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food versus (bio)fuel

• old conflict new horizon
• In sub-Saharan Africa, gt90 energy from biofuels
  (Bailis et al 2005 Science)
• New biofuels include
• Oils soy, palm, jatropha
• Bioethanol maize, cane
• Lignin-cellulose switch grass
• Algal fuels

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new energy efficiency context
Source Muys et al 2008 for jatropha, rest
compiled by World Watch Institute, 2007
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biofuel and food security scenarios

• U.S. bioethanol production 2007/08 caused 33
  maize price rise (Tollens, 2009)
• Three future choices
• Change use of existing arable land
• Expansion of the agricultural frontier
• Move to using  degraded land (certain crops
  only) 

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1. use of existing arable land

• Potential conflict with food production?land,
  water, labour
• Poor, food-importing countries will suffer
  reduced foodsecurity as a result of biofuel
  growth (Tollens, 2009)
• ... or complementary?
• Grow bioenergy crops alongside food crops
• Financial benefits revenue, costs, production
• Bioenergy can semi-mechanize crop systems
• Develop integrated fuel-food systems e.g.
• intercropping jatropha
• integrating perennial biofuels into shifting
  cultivation

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2. expansion agriculture carbon costs and
driving deforestation
Adapted from Fargione et al 2008 Science
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3. re-use of degraded land

• Jatropha curcas, Pongamia pinnata are
  drought-resistant
• Yield data scarce / viable on degraded land?
• Still compete for labour (water?) with food
  systems

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summary what we need to do

• Drastic rethinking of all production systems is
  needed
• Adaptation strategies
• Diversify cropping systems
• Disseminate crop varieties with drought
  temperature tolerances
• Weather forecasting including pest outbreak
  prediction
• Knowledge transfer between climate-matched
  regions
• Important strategic decisions are needed on
  biofuels considering profitability and food
  security

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Thank you