Title: Fruit
1- Fruit Nut Cases?
- Eco-nutrition and food policy
- in an age of climate change
- Tim Lang
- Centre for Food Policy, City University, London
- t.lang_at_city.ac.uk
- 3rd International Consumer Sciences Research
Conference Improving Consumer Skills Improving
Consumer Choice, University of Ulster,
Jordanstown, June 29, 2007
2Overview of this talk
- The impact of diet on health is well known
- The nutrition transition is now globalising
- Environmental determinants now loom alongside
health as shapers of C21st food - Big changes will happen in what we eat, how its
produced what land is used for - Professions must engage with this picture
- The eco-nutrition transition must be democratised
rather than forced on us
3Issue 1 The productionist paradigm (which has
shaped C20th food supply) is under stress
4Life sciences vs. ecology?The paradigm battle
Food Wars
Productionist paradigm
1800s 1900s 1950
2000 2050
LEGEND Key Battlegrounds in the Food
Wars. These include Diet, health and disease
prevention Capturing the consumer What
sort of food business Environmental
crisis Controlling food supply Competing
visions / ideologies
5Implications
- Although big money has been invested in Life
Sciences, ecological perspectives are themselves
becoming central - Big consumer goods companies (including food
co.s) are rapidly trying to address this change. - Markets are being redefined
6Issue 2 Consumers food culture is troubled -
going in contradictory directions simultaneously
7Food culture in tension (1)
Consumerist Citizen
Long distance Local
Factory cooking Home cooking
Nutrient lite Nutrient dense
Fast Slow
De-skilled Artisanal / craft
Individualised / private Public / common
Intensification Extensification
Cheap Expensive
Externalised costs Internalised costs
8Food culture in tension (2)
Hypermarket Street Market
Commodity broker Peasant
Labour shedding Labour enhancement
Monoculture Biodiversity
Quantity Quality
Nutrigenomics Social nutrition
Supplements Wholefood
Organic Agrichemical-based
Traceability relationship Trust relationship
Personalised health Population health
9Other values than value for money appeal to
food consumers
- Animal welfare
- Human health
- Methods of production impact (eg,
environmental, landscape) - Terms of trade (fair price, etc)
- Quality (taste, composition, etc)
- Origin and place
- Trust
- Voice (participation)
- Transparency
- Working conditions
Source Coff, Korthals, Barling, eds (2007)
Ethical Traceability project (EU 6th framework),
forthcoming book or see www.food-ethics.net
10Implications
- How can consumers juggle and reconcile competing
demands? - There are no guidelines for addressing single
issues together - A battle is on for the collective consciousness /
culture - Are there signs of a shift from value for money
to values for money?
11Issue 3 Climate change is rapidly emerging as a
(? the) major policy challenge. It alters notions
of progress and the future. Here, I draw on J
Holdrens AAAS Presidential Address Feb 2007
12The problem the Earth is getting warmer.
C
Green bars show 95 confidence intervals
2005 was the hottest year on record the 13
hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24
hottest since 1980.
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103 14288-293 (26 Sept
2006)
13With the causal link to greenhouse gases
Source Hansen et al., Science 308, 1431, 2005.
14The effects are rapidly emerging
15Changes in climate are already causing harm
Major floods per decade, 1950-2000
Theres a consistent 50-year upward trend in
every region except Oceania.
16Harm is already occurring (continued)
Major wildfires by decade, 1950-2000
The trend has been sharply upward everywhere.
17Where were headed Heat waves
Extreme heat waves in Europe,
already 2X more frequent because of global
warming, will be normal in mid-range scenario
by 2050
Black lines are observed temps, smoothed
unsmoothed red, blue, green lines are Hadley
Centre simulations w natural anthropogenic
forcing yellow is natural only. Asterisk and
inset show 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000.
Stott et al., Nature 432 610-613 (2004)
18Harm is already occurring (continued) Total power
released by tropical cyclones (green) has
increased along with sea surface temperatures
(blue).
Source Kerry Emanuel, MIT, http//wind.mit.edu/
emanuel/anthro2.htm. SST anomaly (deg C) with
arbitrary vertical offset. PDI scaled by
constant.
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, 2006
19Harm is already occurring (concluded) WHO
estimates climate change already causing 150,000
premature deaths/yr in 2000
20But temp. rises will lead to lower yields in
tropics
Crop yields in tropics start dropping at ?T
1-1.5C
Easterling and Apps, 2005
21Where were headed droughts
Drought projections for IPCCs A1B scenario
Percentage change in average duration of longest
dry period, 30-year average for 2071-2100
compared to that for 1961-1990.
22Implications
- What we are doing to land (ie the planet) is
shaping what happens on the planet - This raises a fundamental policy question what
is land for? - There are competing demands
- Social amenity, housing, cultural identity,
- Environmental carbon sink, water, biodiversity
- Economic fuel, food, resources (minerals)
23Issue 4 Climate change is not the only
environmental driver about to re-shape and deepen
pressures on consumer food culture
24Environment and food culture
- Emissions from food transport
- Oil and Energy use
- Mobility oil not food as fuel
- Water use by population
- Water use by products
25CO2 emissions and UK food transport (2002)
(Defra/AEA 2005)
26Source Tara Garnett, Univ Surrey, City seminar
March 2007
27Oil energy
- IEA est. oil / energy demand growth 2000-30
1.7 per yr - equivalent to 60 on todays consumption
- 60 of demand growth will come from DCs (esp.
China and India) - Biofuels no solution ?land use pressure food vs
biofuels vs amenity vs housing vs carbon sinks vs
identity (views)
28Rise of motorised transport 1930-2000
Michael P Walsh, Motor Vehicle Pollution Control,
Paper to China Fuel Economy Workshop, Hong Kong,
December 13, 2004, http//www.walshcarlines.com/c
hina/Applying20The20Lessons20To20China20-20M
OVE20.pdf
29Water futures
- 2000-2020 water availability for humans is
expected to drop by one-third - Water scarcity or stress (having less than 1,700
cubic metres of water per person per year) is
estimated to affect 40 of humanity by 2050 - Consequences
- 1. increased food prices and health threats
- 2. poor countries likely to be most heavily
affected - Stockholm International Water Institute (2003).
General water statistics World Water Week
Symposium data sheets, August 10-16. Stockholm
Stockholm International Water Insitute
www.siwi.org/waterweek2003 - Cosgrave W, Vice-President of the World Water
Council, quoted in Houlder V (2003), World in
drier straits, Financial Times, 11 August, p 16
30.
Sourcehttp//www.solcomhouse.com/drought.htm Acce
ssed 17 May 2004
31World population by freshwater availability 2000
2025
- Source Marie Stopes International, evidence to
All Party Parliamentary Group on Population,
Development and Reproductive Health (2007)
Return of the Population Factor its impact on
the Millennium Development Goals. London House
of Commons. Jan. Fig 22 pg 52 http//www.appg-popd
evrh.org.uk/Publications/Population20Hearings/APP
G20Report20-20Return20of20the20Population20
Factor.pdf
32Products virtual water content (litres)
- 1 potato (100g) 25
- 1 bag of potato crisps (200g) 185
- 1 egg (40g) 135
- 1 hamburger (150g) 2400
- 1 cotton T-shirt (medium, 500g) 4100
- 1 sheet A4 paper (80g/m20) 10
- 1 pair of shoes (bovine leather) 8000
- 1 microchip (2g) 32
- glass beer (250ml) 75
- glass milk (200ml) 200
- glass wine (125ml) 120
- glass apple juice (125ml) 190
- cup coffee (125ml) 140
- cup of tea (125ml) 35
- slice of bread (30g) 40
- slice of bread (30g) with cheese (10g) 90
Source WWF (2006) rich countries, poor water.
www.panda.org/freshwater
33Meats water demands .creeping into policy
- 1 kg grain-fed beef needs 15 cubic metres of
water - 1 kg of lamb from a sheep fed on grass needs 10
cubic metres - 1kg cereals needs 0.4-3 cubic metres
- Source Anders Berntell, Stockholm International
Water Institute, World Water week interview, BBC
News Online, August 27 2005
34Global social justice who emits the most carbon
dioxide?
- Source World Resources Institute (2006) climate
analysis indicators tool version 3.0 (www.wri.org)
35Implications
- The eco challenge to food system is real
- Food industry response too niche/ tokenist
- Decline of State leadership means no shared
framework exists just when needed - Pressures will grow
36Issue 5Health pressures are similar to
environmental ones.Again, the policy focus is on
individualism, choice consumerism as drivers,
when they are being driven.
37Health whats the problem? (WHO consensus e.g.
TR916)
- Rising toll of NCDs including most visibly
obesity and diabetes - Growing economic burden healthcare
- Creation of health inequalities
- The spread of Western diets and companies to
the developing world
38WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital
investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.12
39Source WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a
vital investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.4
40Yearly deaths due to risk factors associated with
tobacco, diet and physical inactivity
- 4.9 m people die as a result of tobacco use
- 2.6 m people die as a result of being overweight
or obese - 4.4 m people die as a result of raised total
cholesterol levels - 7.1 m people die as a result of raised blood
pressure.
WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital
investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.6
41WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital
investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.5
42Implications
- Personalised healthcare choice is no adequate
policy response (it appeals to rich countries and
the worried well) - Developing countries, too, face big burdens
- Diet-related healthcare costs will rise ? fiscal
pressure on prevention - Obesity is to health what climate change is to
environment ? both attract policy attention
because both are systemic crises
43Issue 6The normalisation of what is damaging is
now part of the problem. How can we shift
absurdities which have been normalised? Two
examples are information (said to be key to
change) and waste.
44Health ideal vs. TV advertising reality
(UK)Source IACFO 2003
45The rise and rise of advertising
- McDonalds and Coca-Cola spend c1.7bn each
globally per year - more than total annual expenditure of WHO on
everything - Policy response to tensions diversification,
e.g. sponsorship, virtual, viral, texting,
whispering, product placement, etc
46Can labelling deliver?All this in 2 seconds to
choose!
- NORMAL
- Brand design etc
- Logo
- Maker contact
- Packaging recycle?
- Ingredients
- EMERGING
- Nutrition (if health claim)
- Production method
- Social fair trade
- Animal welfare
- Allergy
- Climate carbon C
47Food waste (UK) WRAP study 2007
- 6.7 mt food thrown yearly c 30 all food bought
19 of domestic waste more weight than food
packing - 70 fd waste ?landfill ? methane (23x more
powerful a climate changing gas than CO2) - 1/2 food waste could be eaten equiv. 18mt CO2
equiv. losing 20 all cars
48What do we say we throw away?Source WRAP 2007
- 32 - food cooked left uneaten on plate
- 24 - food prepared but not cooked
- 24 - products opened but not finished
- 56 - inedible peelings, cores, outer leaves
- 30 - fruit, vegetables, salad
49WRAP asks are UK consumers in denial?
- 90 of households dont believe that they waste
much food - 50 care a great deal or fairly
- 50 care a little, not much or not at all
50Implications
- Information democracy is at the heart of the
neo-liberal efficient market model - but(excessive) choice is part of the ecological
and cultural problem - Information not a trigger for behaviour change
(but a reinforcer) - Signs of information overload?
- Are consumer values in a muddle?
51Issue 7 Pursuit of lower food prices has been a
core policy goal and central to C20th notion of
progress. Now we need to internalise
externalised eco-health-social costs.
52- Source Defra (2006). Food Security. Dec 22 p.15
53As economies develop, food expenditure drops but
shifts from non-packaged to packaged food
Source Euromonitor, 2003 http//www.euromonitor.c
om
54Implications
- The historic decline of food costs might be
slowing - Energy costs are rising / upward
- Food prices might rise due to competing land use
from Biofuels 5 US corn (2006) ? 25 US corn
(2007) - The impact is likely to vary for different foods
meat, fruit, veg, cereals - Impact on countries will vary
- UK Govt argues it is not vulnerable (HMT Defra
2005ff) others disagree.
55Source Defra (2006). Food Security. Dec 22 p.36
56Source Defra (2006). Food Security. Dec 22 p.34
57Issue 8 Consumers dietary hearts and minds
are now central to a wider cultural tussle.
Individualised choice vs. choice editing is the
new political fissure.
58PRODUCT Choice Functional and Emotional Cues
Shoppers drivers of product choice can be
grouped into functional and emotional factors. As
shoppers become more engaged in food choice, they
begin to choose products based on the emotional
factors, rather than just the functional.
Function
Emotion
Disengaged passive
Principles into practice
Source IGD Consumer Unit, 2006
59The optimistic view one retailers analysis of
consumers as drivers of food chain change
Ethics
Environment
Animal welfare
Mislabelling
Unnatural production
Healthy nutrition
Food safety
60But ecological tipping points may shift attention
down to assumed infrastructure not just up
Ethics
Environment
Animal welfare
Mislabelling
Unnatural production
Healthy nutrition
Food safety
FOOD SECURITY choice declines?
ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY water, climate, fuel
etc
61Implications
- When food security is likely to rise up policy
agenda, the consequences for consumer culture are
uncertain (Chatham house WP) - Energy auditing likely to accentuate this
- New fault-line is between small changes
cumulatively deliver big change vs.
individualised small change wont deliver enough
change
62Issue 9Amidst all these changes, food power is
concentrating rapidly. Supermarketisation and
internationalisation are apparently unstoppable
63Supermarketisation globally
64Rise of supermarkets in UK grocery market,
1900-2010 source IDG 2005/Defra 2006 p.53
65Supply Chain under pressure
Ecology Environment
Demographics
Government politics
Culture
Health
Societal demands
Supply Chain Dynamics farm, manufacture,
retail, foodservice
Finance investment
Science Technology
Energy
Climate Change
Consumers
66Implications
- Debate about the new food powers is opening up
but policy levers are few no international
controls - Competition Policy is failing to deal with this
(e.g. UK Competition Commissions Terms of
Reference too narrow) CSR is too thin a
response - Key issues are
- how to define a market?
- Can / will politicians do anything?
67Issue 10 The policy triangle of state, supply
chain and civil society has been restructured,
leaving the state weak just when its needed to
reset policy frameworks. Individual businesses
consumers cannot take that function.
68Civil society
- The traditional model of state, supply chain
and civil society law as arbiter
State
Law
Supply chain
69Civil society
- The modern duality model
- state law competes with company regulations
State
Law
Supply chain
Company regulations
70Civil society
- Emergence of triangular dynamic
- civil demands and campaigns
State
Law
Supply chain
Company regulations
Demands campaigns
71Implications
- There is little policy leadership or clarity
- This is, in part, because no-one is in control of
policy frameworks - There is also a failure of vision where do we as
societies want to go?
72These are big questions and issues!Is it all
doom and gloom? No!
73There are pointers ahead
- The shape of the challenge is becoming clear
- People are working on different aspects
- The big picture needs to be pulled together
74Conclusion 1 There is much wonderful analysis
ripe to be linked upexample WWF Scottish
dietary footprint 2006
75We know what a nutritionally good diet looks
like (WHO/ FAO 2004 etc etc)
- Lots of fruit and veg (Fruit)
- Lots of cereals
- Good role for nuts and other sources of
micro-nutrients (Nuts) - Fish for ve fats
- Restricted fats implications for meat dairy
- Restricted / minimal NME sugars
76The problem with that vision is
- Fish are in crisis
- Land is being corralled for energy
- Biodiversity is under threat
- More energy is spent getting food than is in it
- Sugars and fats are cheap calories and put in
masses of processed foods - Nutrition transition feast day foods everyday
- Etc, etc.
77Global hectares of av. Scottish diet
78Impact of eating a healthy diet (gha)
79Best vs worst eco-footprint diets
Source WWF Scotland 2006
80Conclusion 2we need to monitor the already
powerful and hold them to accountexample City
University health audit of top 25 food companies
(2006)
81City University 2006 study
- 25 Top Global Food Companies
- Top 10 Manufacturers 10 Retailers 5
Foodservice - Used WHO DPAS as template
- Used this to review company accounts, annual
reports, HQ websites - review of self-reporting
- But this gives some indication of intent,
seriousness and policy commitment
82Overall, the big food companies appear to be
making a limited and patchy response to DPAS
- Sectors vary (retail is the weakest)
- Some are not engaged
- Some partially engaged
- No-one is fully engaged
- Our recommendations
- Company reporting has got to improve
- Company products have to change, too
83Focus on core Company actions?
- Adspend, marketing, sponsorship 12/25 gave any
figures 1 gave breakdown 6/25 had child
ad-policy - Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) on nutrition,
diet physical activity (PA) 4/25! - Director / Board for health only 6/25 had one
- Commitments on health, children, PA 11/25 act on
product formulation 4/25 on fat 2/25 on portion
size - Deviations e.g. manufacturers focus on PA
(7/10)
84Conclusion 3To pull together diverse thinking
and analyses, we need to engage with movements
which express these diverse market demands.The
future is complex but new ground rules are
emerging
85Many factors need to feed into a true
Eco-Nutrition / Ecological Public Health for
Sustainable Development
- Citizenship
- Health
- Nutrients
- Full cost prices
- Quality
- etc
- Ecology
- Energy use
- Land use / footprint
- Economy
- Fair prices
- Efficiency
- Work
- Good resource use
- etc
86Thanks
- The shape of the challenge is becoming clear
- There are pointers
- People are working on different aspects
- The big picture needs to be pulled together